The 2022 State of Origin series is here and so is Your Edge. We’re digging into some of the changes to the Blues ahead of Game 2 and how Brad Fittler’s side can send it to a Suncorp Stadium decider.
Numbers Behind Game 1
If you ignore the scoreboard in Game 1 and simply look at the stats pages, it looks as though the New South Wales Blues were the better team. We know better; the Queensland Maroons executed their game plan to near-perfection and the Blues didn’t know how to respond.
Still, Brad Fittler’s side spent more time in possession, ran for more metres, generated more post-contact metres, broke more tackles, forced the only drop out of the game and missed fewer tackles. Narrowing it down further, James Tedesco (24 runs/291 running metres), Brian To’o (25/207), Jack Wighton (20/184) and Daniel Tupou (26/211) combined for 95 runs and 893 running metres in Game 1. Those are massive numbers and exactly what Fittler wanted out of his back-five. However, did it limit the damage they could do on the edges?
The Maroons, on the other hand, went for a more traditional approach to their yardage game. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (16/131), Kurt Capewell (16/145), Reuben Cotter (14/145), Lindsay Collins (12/133) and Patrick Carrigan (19/183) completed their role through the middle to get Queensland up the field and into attacking field position.
Winning the middle of the field was a main point when looking into Game 1.
“If you can win the battle through the middle and promote fatigue in the opposition, there is a good chance you’ll eventually crack the line and end up on top.” – State of Origin 1 Preview
The Blues ended up with 2,003 running metres to the Maroons’ 1,863 but the two teams went about it in different ways. It will be interesting to see how New South Wales, in particular, approaches the yardage game in Perth and whether or not they look to balance the load this time around.
Jake Returns & The Blues Middle
Jake Trbojevic has been recalled for State of Origin Game 2. Fittler overlooked the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles lock for the series opener but is looking for a “defensive minded” middle for this one.
Missed tackles aren’t a great way of measuring defence overall, but can be applied relatively well to middle forwards. Trbojevic is known for his hard-hitting defence and will no doubt play a role in how the Blues look to lock the Maroons in early on in Game 2. However, with 24 missed tackles in 13 games this season, Trbojevic has already missed more tackles than he did across 23 games in 2021 (22). He’s not in his best form defensively and certainly isn’t going to make up for that in the yardage game.
Trbojevic is averaging a career-low 84 running metres per game for Manly this season. His role at the Sea Eagles will be different to the Blues. He’s a distributor and link-man for his club side but appears to be tasked with a typical prop forward role in State of Origin. He’s yet to break a single tackle, though. The Blues need to get more out of their middle in yardage for Game 2 but Trbojevic is unlikely to be the answer.
Perhaps it is a deliberate ploy to balance things out, but Trbojevic (one of the least effective ball-carrying middles in the NRL) will be paired alongside the most consistent metre-eater in the game to start. Fittler finally pumped up his minutes and Payne Haas finished with 143 running metres in Game 1. Isaah Yeo managed 146 metres and Reagan Campbell-Gillard 106 metres, but Junior Paulo – in an impact of the bench role he’s not suited to – managed only 33 metres in 30 minutes.
Queensland have lost Reuben Cotter but replace him with Jai Arrow – a proven performer at State of Origin level and another middle that can get up the field. Patrick Carrigan and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui are both in career-best form while Josh Papalii has been there and done it all in this arena 21 times before. Still, in Haas, Yeo, Paulo and possibly Siosifa Talakai off the bench, the Blues have the players to compete in the middle if they want to take some of the workload off the back-five.
Crafty Koroisau To Start
Fittler has benched Damien Cook and opted to start with Apisai Koroisau for Game 2. He’s following the dual-hooker model the Maroons played with in the opener.
“Maybe they’ve taught us a lesson and we’re going to combat that. We’ll have some smaller men around there and see if we can generate some speed.” – Brad Fittler
It looks as though Fittler wants that speed to come later in the half with Cook to come off the bench. He’s a superior ball-runner to Koroisau and has the speed to cause havoc around the ruck if the Blues middle does the job in front of him. However, and it doesn’t show in the numbers (tries + linebreaks + try assists, linebreak assists) given the number of elite ball-players he is surrounded by at Penrith, Koroisau is the craftier of the pair.
Cook can break a game open with his fast feet from behind the ruck and produce the highlight-reel play, while Koroisau is more of a ‘pry the game open’ sort of hooker. He will manipulate a defensive line across a full set. He will spot a deficiency in the defensive in one set before playing towards it and exploiting it on the next.
Both provide Fittler with different skillsets and various ways to play the position depending on the game plan and game state. The challenge now is to get the best out of both hookers and nail the rotation – an area he has struggled in throughout his State of Origin tenure.
Burton On Debut
Matt Burton won the Dally M Centre of the Year award in 2021 but barely rated a mention as a possible centre ahead of Game 1. In fact, Talakai – named to play off the bench in a middle forward role – was mentioned more as a bolter than the former Panther.
The ‘former Panther’ part may have had something to do with the snub in Game 1. Playing for the worst team in the NRL at the time teams were selected, the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs have struck form and Burton is now in the side. The form guide of his club side rising and Burton’s State of Origin selection isn’t a coincidence.
Burton has spent the year playing at five-eighth but can be relied upon to slot relatively seamlessly back into the centres. He made it look easy at times in 2021. Only Dane Gagai on South Sydney’s lethal left edge ended up averaging more attacking involvements per game than Burton last year.
He doesn’t have long to reacquaint himself with the centre position but does have former teammates around him to aid in the transition. Also expect him to move closer to the middle of the field at times to hoist up one or two of his massive bombs. The lack of a second kicker made things easy for the Maroons in Game 1 and they tormented Nathan Cleary with their kick pressure. Just having Burton around and available will help to ease the load on Cleary.
The centre position has been an inconsistent one for the Blues in recent years and Burton feels like another stop-gap before Latrell Mitchell returns for Game 3. Still, expect him to look comfortable despite the relative lack of action out wide and for him to link up with his former Panthers teammates early on.
State of Origin Value Plays
We’ve done a Punter’s Preview & NRL Draftstars Preview for Game 1 of State of Origin. The Punter’s Preview looks at try scorer & player performance markets as well as Player of the Match. The NRL Draftstars Preview covers strategic advice for beginners as well as value players & fade options. If you’re enjoying our free content & data tools, follow us on social media & join our Discord channel where we discuss all things NRL, NBA & Cricket.