Round 11 of the 2022 NRL season is here and so is Your Edge. This week we’re looking into the Broncos improvements through the middle, how Anthony Milford can influence the Knights, why the Dragons aren’t scoring out wide, and highlighting the best value plays of the weekend.

Broncos Better Through The Middle

The Brisbane Broncos have made impressive strides to start the 2022 NRL season. Now 7th on the ladder and looking good to at least fight for a finals spot all year if not keep their current place, Adam Reynolds has been hailed as the saviour.

He has been excellent. Better than anybody could have imagined when it comes to the creativity and try assist (11 already this season) aspect of the Broncos attack. However, a lot of that has been made possible by Brisbane’s improvements through the middle. Kevin Walters’ side ranked 14th in yardage last season at 1,558 running metres per game. While they’re only averaging 1,569 running metres per game in 2022, the yardage number is a reflection of how the game has changed following roll-backs on ridiculous rules. The telling number is their rank – 8th. Brisbane are getting up the field better this season and, perhaps more importantly, not allowing the opposition to beat them up in the centre-third quite so often.

Where last year the Broncos had too many players in the bottom left portion of this graph, they now have competent players in the middle to compliment the always-impressive Payne Haas.

Thomas Flegler, in particular, has improved his game in 2022. Discipline remains an issue for the hot-headed 22-year-old that is far too familiar with the judiciary and its processes. He says that it’s an area he is working on but he lasted only a few minutes before booking another stint on the sidelines this season. But with four consecutive games under his belt and a defined role off the bench, Flegler is playing career-best football to ensure the Broncos are a force through the middle across the full 80 minutes.

With Corey Jensen’s 118 metres an unexpected bonus beside Haas (182m) in the starting side and Patrick Carrigan adding another 140 metres per game at lock, the Broncos are laying the platform for Reynolds to dominate with the ball.

Milford Returns

It’s as though the NRL decided on allowing Anthony Milford to return in Round 11 simply for his comeback to start against his former side…

Whatever the reason, his inclusion can’t come soon enough for the Newcastle Knights. They’re towards the bottom of the NRL ladder and averaging only 12.4 points per game through 10 rounds.

Milford is no certainty of being Newcastle’s saviour. The Broncos let him go for a reason and he’s not been an effective first-grade half for a couple of seasons now. However, there is reason to believe this could be a successful stint for the 27-year-old. He no longer has the burden of a whopping great pay packet hanging over him. More importantly, Kalyn Ponga is the main man in this attack leaving Milford to pop up as he can.

Jake Clifford and Adam Clune have spent the most time in the Knights halves throughout 2022 and they’re not high-touch halves. Neither are particularly dominant on the ball. Instead, Ponga is getting his hands on the ball more often and appears to be taking more touches at first receiver than he ever has done in the past.

The Knights can best utilise Milford by keeping the pressure off. Run him as a traditional five-eighth while Clune moves closer to the ruck and plays more on-ball. If Milford is wide and running downhill, he’s in a position to use his running game to break down sliding defences. If Ponga is going to keep popping up a bit closer to the ruck, run Milford in fullback shapes similar to what AJ Brimson does as a five-eighth when Jayden Campbell is in the side.

We’re unlikely to see Milford or the Knights at their best on Thursday night, but we should get a couple of hints about how they plan to use their new recruit moving forward.

Dragons Keeping It Tight

The St. George Illawarra Dragons are struggling for points. They currently rank 13th at 15.1 points per game and have only cracked 20+ points once since Round 2. Their struggles led to a question on Twitter: Why have only five of the 18 tries the Dragons have scored since Round 3 been scored by players in the back-five?

The Dragons are poor in yardage. They lose the battle in the middle more often than not which leads to them averaging only 28.2 tackles inside the opposition’s 20-metre line per game. However, that explains more of their overall issues in attack. It’s the proportion of tries the rest of the team is scoring compared with the outside backs that is the strange part and for that the simple answer is they’re not getting the ball.

Moses Suli sees more of the ball than any other Dragons outside back but a lot of that comes in yardage sets where they look for a strong carry on a long-side shift. The fact Zac Lomax (4.1%) doesn’t register in the Top 30 is concerning. He’s their best-attacking player out wide and one that can create something out of nothing if he’s provided with clean ball. The quality of possession they’re receiving is also a factor with how often the Dragons have rotated through five-eighths. Their strange fascination with running it on the last and therefore not hanging the ball up for Lomax and Mikaele Ravalawa – two very good players in the air – is another consideration too.

The Dragons are a poor attacking side right now. Perhaps they can improve by feeding their attacking players the ball more often?

Net Yardage Update

It’s a regular feature here in Your Edge and the mention of Brisbane’s improvements prompted another look this week.

Turn away, Warriors fans. It’s getting worse in the net yardage department with Nathan Brown’s side now last in the NRL. How a side featuring Addin Fonua-Blake and Matt Lodge to start performs so poorly in yardage is mind-boggling.

The Penrith Panthers are way out in front. Their middle is superb and they generate a lot of yardage through their back-five. Maintaining possession and applying constant pressure is how they are so far in front of the rest of the NRL, though. Promisingly for the North Queensland Cowboys, their start to the season looks like no fluke with how well they’re performing here. Net yardage is often a fairly accurate reflection of the competition as a whole and the Cowboys are where they need to be if they’re to play finals football this year.

NRL Value Plays

The Warriors are in desperate need of a lift and it really needs to come from Shaun Johnson to start. He isn’t the runner of the football he once was but will back himself against the Dragons edge defence. Similarly, Matt Moylan takes on a Titans right edge that has conceded more than 50% of their tries so far in 2022. With Nicho Hynes back at halfback and Wade Graham on the left edge, Moylan will have opportunities to tuck the ball under his arm and take the line on and presents as a value option in the first try scorer market.

For any time try scorers, Jahrome Hughes sticks out on Wicky’s Try Scorer Value Finder tool. He’s going to shoulder more of the load on the right side with Ryan Papenhuyzen out. In instances he would normally release a pass, Hughes is more likely to run the football and is always a threat of going over.

The Draftstars NRL Stats Bible has highlighted Adam Clune as a value option at $10,400. If the Knights change their style and Clune takes on more touches, he presents as an appealing point of difference option on Thursday night. Moses Mbye is another that could surprise. Named at hooker against a Warriors side that we know gives up too many metres through the middle, Mbye won’t be short of opportunities to dart out from dummy half.