There’s only one more round of NRL action till State of Origin teams get picked so it should be a cracking eight games this weekend. Coming off our tip for Jarrod Wallace to score the first try at $101 odds last weekend, we’re hoping to nail another big odds try scorer pick this round! We’ve found some of the best plays for try scorer markets as well as an explanation of how to get the most of our tools. We also mention our stats bible for Draftstars (daily fantasy sports) & Player Performance markets resource which could be interesting especially if you’re an avid NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach player. If you’re not looking for NRL tips but want your weekly league fix, check out ‘Your Edge’ our weekly analytical break down of the NRL.
Our NRL tips are based on the free data tools on our site. If you’d like to learn more about how to use the tools or put in your own tips, reach out to us on whichever form of social media you prefer. If you’d like to chat about sports betting, NRL Supercoach, NRL Fantasy or Draftstars then come join our community on Discord! We’ll be adding NRL tips for the rest of the games in Round 11 soon, Also, a quick reminder that all our tools, content & groups are free.
Warriors v Knights
3pm, Saturday 28th May
Try Scorers
Euan Aitken First/Last Try Scorer @ $29 on Bet365
Jack Murchie First Try Scorer @ $54 on Topsport
Jacob Saifiti First Try Scorer 2nd Half @67 on TAB
We love both Warriors starting back-rowers in this one with Aitken @$29 & Murchie @ $54 on Topsport. We’re expecting Murchie to start on an edge with Tohu Harris playing lock-forward so that is a great price for Murchie to get over early.
Jacob Saifiti will feature most weeks if his price is between $67-101 so no surprises we’ve tipped him again up against a noticeably weaker Warriors pack missing Curran, Fonua-Blake & Lodge who have been 3 of their best this season.
NRL Draftstars
The Warriors have been favourites with bookmakers all week but there’s a lot to like about this Newcastle side after getting most of their injured stars back. If you think the Knights can rediscover their form, outside backs like Ponga & Gagai could be great picks at their sub-$15k price. With Fonua-Blake & Lodge missing, Tevaga & Tohu Harris should also be great picks with their workload expected to rise significantly. You can use our free NRL Draftstars Stats Bible to look at record form, our projections & each players’ ceiling range to see who to select in our team.
Rabbitohs v Tigers
5.30pm, Saturday 28th May
Try Scorers
Siliva Havili First Try Scorer 2nd Half @ $101 on TAB
James Tamou First Try Scorer @ $101 on Sportsbet
Stefano Utoikamanu Anytime Tryscorer @ $14 on Sportsbet
Luke Garner Anytime Tryscorer @ $5.6 on Neds
Havili & Tamou have both looked good in recent weeks and we love the $101 on offer for them. Utoikamanu has an incredible try scoring rate early in his career, so we think the $14 on offer on Sportsbet for him to score a try at any time is a really good value play even with the Rabbitohs regaining Cam Murray. Utoikamanu’s historical try scoring strike rate converted to betting odds would be $5!
Luke Garner has been in excellent try scoring form in recent weeks and the 5.6 on Neds is noticeably higher odds than what his career strike rate suggests it should be ($3.67) and our model ($4.77).
NRL Draftstars
Kodi Nikorima gets the starting fullback spot and is therefore a great pick-up at $9,000. We have four players priced below $10,000 that we all have scoring 34-39 points and have given a 9/10 value rating to. Jake Simpkin gets the starting Hooker gig for the Tigers, Nicholls returns from injury & Havili will be looking to continue his strong form averaging 37 in his last 3 appearances.
Sharks v Roosters
7.35pm, Saturday 28th May
Try Scorers
Ronaldo Mulitalo First/Last Try Scorer @ $10 on Bet365
Royce Hunt First Try Scorer @ $81 on Neds
Royce Hunt’s odds according to our model or any other bookmaker would be $63 or below. You can find him at $81 on Neds. He came close to getting over early in the game last week so we’re really excited about this play.
Ronaldo Mulitalo is now down to $10 on Bet365 but we still think it’s a good play, clearly above ($8.17) what our model has him priced at. Playing outside the in-form Talakai, Mulitalo should get enough opportunities to get over the line if the Sharks can be on top of their game against the Roosters.
NRL Draftstars
With a few forwards from both packs missing, we’ll be looking to the pack for value in this contest. Royce Hunt, Cam McInnes & Nat Butcher are our 3 picks. Hunt & Butcher are priced well for what they could deliver with their starting spots & McInnes is priced appropriately but we think he could get 60+ points in what should be a tight affair played through the middle of the field.
If you’re looking for upside, it’s a two-way battle between Nicho Hynes & James Tedesco. We prefer going with Tedesco for almost $4k less and seeing if you can get Butcher & Wilton in your team for some upside in the forwards.
Dragons v Bulldogs
2pm, Sunday 29th May
Try Scorers
Josh Addo-Carr First Try Scorer @ $12 on Bet365
Paul Vaughan First Try Scorer @ $75 on Topsport
Paul Vaughan Anytime Tryscorer @ $13 on Topsport
Tevita Pangai-Junior First Try Scorer 2nd Half @ $51 on TAB
Ben Hunt First/Last Try Scorer @ $34 on Bet365
Josh Jackson @ First Try Scorer $81 on Topsport
We think Josh Jackson will play on the edge and Max King will play at lock, so the $81 for him to score the first try is a great price. Vaughan’s career try scoring rate is incredible so no surprises we love the price for him both FTS & ATS. Addo-Carr & Hunt are priced significantly higher than their historical strike rate would suggest they should be priced at and have both been in strong form this season.
Tevita Pangai-Junior is more of an instinct pick. Against a weak Dragons pack, we love him to score the first try in the second half at $51 as he’ll be fresh coming off the bench and has been in ripping form.
NRL Draftstars
Matt Burton v Ben Hunt. Winner of this battle will decide who gets the 2 points going into the Origin period & will likely decide who wins this Draftstars contest. We love Matt Burton’s upside, with a ceiling range of 90 & to scores above 80 in his last 3.
Raiders v Eels
4.05pm, Sunday 29th May
Try Scorers
Joseph Tapine First Try Scorer @ $67 on Neds
Mitchell Moses First/Last Try Scorer @ $41 on Bet365
Hudson Young Anytime Tryscorer @ $6.25 on Sportsbet
Mitchell Moses is now $34 on Bet365 (gameday) and is still noticeably higher odds than our model and his historical strike rate would suggest. Hudson Young has been in great form and if you think the Raiders form is ‘legitimate’ and they can compete with the Eels, the $6.25 for him ATS is a great price.
Tapine’s $67 to score the first try may not seem like a great play by his historical strike rate or our model’s predicted odds, but he’s been in career best form and looks threatening every week. The chance to jump on him at $67 for an in-form Raiders team is a juicy play.
NRL Draftstars
All 5 Raiders outside backs are priced less than $11k in this Draftstars contest. If you think the Raiders can continue their strong form, picking 3 of them (including the flex position) could be an interesting way to build you side. Another player who is surprisingly cheap is Nathan Brown. Priced at $9,910 if you think Brown can get more minutes than recent weeks, he’ll be a great pick up for your DFS team.
Storm v Sea Eagles
7.50pm, Thursday 26th May
Try Scorers
Tui Kamikamica & Josh King First Team Try Scorer @ $67 on TAB
Daly Cherry-Evans First/Last Try Scorer @ $41 on Bet365
Josh Schuster First Try Scorer 2nd Half @ $67 on TAB
Lachlan Croker First Try Scorer @ $91 on Sportsbet
The Storm are down on troops so we think the game will be played through the middle early in this contest between the two old rivals. King, Kamikamica & Croker are great odds at the prices listed above if the game is a tight affair early.
Daly-Cherry Evans will need to step up without Tom Trbojevic and is usually closer to $26-34 for first try scorer markets. We love the $41 for him, especially now that Grant is out and Hughes is under an injury cloud as well.
Josh Schuster at $67 to score the first try in the second half is our bet of the game. He’ll come on to play in the second row at some point in the game and $67 for a player of his calibre is ridiculously good value.
NRL Draftstars
Cameron Munster ($24,080) has the highest projected score & ceiling range (average of his 3 highest scores in 2022) in this $20,000 contest so no surprise that he’s our standout pick. He had a quiet outing with 45 points last round in their humiliating loss against the Cowboys, however we’re backing him to come out all guns blazing and get a win before going into Origin camp.
Brandon Smith moves to hooker to cover the missing Harry Grant, so the Melbourne starting pack should be good value as they cover Smith & Asofa-Solomona’s minutes and workload.
Panthers v Cowboys
6pm, Friday 27th May
Try Scorers
Reece Robson First Try Scorer @ 71 on Sportsbet
Tom Gilbert First Try Scorer @ $51 on Bet365
Jeremiah Nanai First/Last Try Scorer @ $34 on Bet365
Heilum Luki Last Try Scorer @ $51 on Bet365
The Cowboys are the most in-form team in the competition along with the Panthers. After a comprehensive performance against the Storm, we’re hoping they can match it with the Panthers in this contest as all the value in the try scorer markets lies with Cowboys players. Gilbert scored the first try of the game last week against the Storm and is at the same price again ($51). Him and Nanai are a lethal starting edge combination, with Nanai scoring a double against the Storm. Luki usually comes on and plays 50 minutes on an edge so the $51 for him to score the last try is great value also.
Reece Robson has been in excellent form and could play around 60 minutes with Granville back in the frame. We love the $71 on him to score the first try, especially considering his try scoring stats & strong running game.
NRL Draftstars
There are a lot of players rated 9 or 10/10 for value in this DFS contest so it’ll be crucial to make the right call. With Jason Taumalolo missing, we think the Cowboys middle forwards could be a good shout to get more minutes & base stats. Coen Hess & Jordan McLean around the $10k price tag stand out as affordable value options.
Reece Robson is priced at almost $20k and may only get ~60 minutes with Granville on the bench, so he’s our option to fade for this contest.
Broncos v Titans
7.55pm, Friday 27th May
Try Scorers
Isaac Liu First Try Scorer @ $81 on Bet365
Beau Fermor First/Last Try Scorer @ $29 on Bet365
Thomas Flegler First Try Scorer 2nd Half @ $101 on TAB
With David Fifita back on the bench, Isaac Liu will likely start the game on the edge and then move to the middle of the field. So we think the $81 on offer for him to score the first try of the game is the best way to play this one.
Fermor has been in great form this season and hasn’t necessarily relied on the Titans to play well to get over the stripe. We love the $29 for him to score the first try but he’s been playing 80 minutes so the last try scorer bet at the same price is a great call too.
Thomas Flegler has been in exceptional form over the last few weeks. With rumours around Haas wanting to leave the club & a potential Origin jersey on the line, we think the $101 for him to score the first try in the 2nd half is a great price.
NRL Draftstars
We backed Katoni Staggs to do well in DFS last week and he delivered with 66 points. We’re backing him & Selwyn Cobbo to both be standout picks with a high ceiling range and at an affordable price on Draftstars. The Titans aren’t known for their defence & without Adam Reynolds, the Broncos will have to look to players like Staggs to put on points.
David Fifita is an obvious fade option here. He’ll likely get ~55 minutes off the bench and could struggle to make an impact off the bench in his first game back from injury. At an almost $20k price-tag, he’s worth staying away from with other options who can be much more dependable at that price range.
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