After an exciting Magic Round, we’re set for what should be a cracking couple of rounds of rugby league action before State of Origin. We’ve found some of the best plays for try scorer markets as well as an explanation of how to get the most of our tools. We also mention our stats bible for Draftstars (daily fantasy sports) & Player Performance markets resource which could be interesting especially if you’re an avid NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach player. If you’re not looking for NRL tips but want your weekly league fix, check out ‘Your Edge’ our weekly analytical break down of the NRL.
Our NRL tips are based on the free data tools on our site. If you’d like to learn more about how to use the tools or put in your own tips, reach out to us on whichever form of social media you prefer. If you’d like to chat about sports betting, NRL Supercoach, NRL Fantasy or Draftstars then come join our community on Discord! We’ll be adding NRL tips for the rest of the games in Round 11 soon, Also, a quick reminder that all our tools, content & groups are free.
Rabbitohs v Raiders
2pm, Sunday 22 May
Try Scorers
Sivila Havili @ $101 Second Half First Try Scorer (FTS2H) on TAB
Matt Timoko @ $31 FTS on Pointsbet
Elliot Whitehead @ $41 FTS on Bet365
Timoko & Whitehead are both standout picks at that price compared to their historical strike rating scoring the first try and better odds compared to other sites. Havili has been in great form in recent weeks without Cam Murray and the $101 on TAB is almost double the price on offer for him to score the first try in the second half than on other sites!
NRL Draftstars
If you’ve played NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy, the concept of daily fantasy sports (DFS) could be an exciting option for another way to stay involved with the NRL. Draftstars are Australia’s only DFS platform and have contests ranging from free/$2 till the main comp ($15 entry) with prize pools around $8-20k for most games. Check out their site if you want to look into further, they use the same data & similar scoring system to NRL Fantasy.
Adam Elliott & Sivila Havili are our two favourite picks for this game. With CHN & Cam Murray missing for their respective teams, expect both of them to get more minutes and therefore more DFS points. If Zac Woolford’s first game is anything to go off, he’ll be a steal at less than $10k as well. You can check out our stats bible for advanced stats to help you make your teams.
Titans v Sharks
4.05pm, Sunday 22 May
Try Scorers
Matt Moylan FTS @ $51 on Pointsbet
Isaac Liu FTS @ $67 on Bet365
Ronaldo Mulitalo FTS @ $9.5 on Bet365
Jarrod Wallace @ $101 FTS on Bet365
Andrew Fifita/Herman Ese’ese @ $101 FTS 2nd Half on TAB
As you can see here, we think there’s a lot of value in the try scorer markets in this one. It’s Andrew Fifita’s 200th game & Ese’ese has scored the first try in the 2nd half only two rounds ago. The $101 on offer is a crazy price and noticeably higher than other sites. Same goes for Jarrod Wallace @ $101, who scored the last try in regular time last week in the Titans’ nail-biting win. This bet paid out @ $101 on Bet365 as their LTS market is only for regular-time tries!
Mulitalo’s $9.50 is 136% better than what our model has him priced at for FTS and is one of those rare occurrences when a winger is priced so much higher than our model’s predicted odds. Moylan at $51 seems to purely be a mistake by Pointsbet and therefore his ATS odds ($7) also seems a good value bet.
NRL Draftstars
Corey Thompson is a tackle-busting machine and therefore is a great DFS scorer. We think he’s a steal at $9,000. In the forwards, with Dale Finucane out, Cam McInnes has been scoring 50+ DFS points consistently and we think he’s the best pick in the forwards for this contest with no David Fifita for the Titans once again.
Dragons v Warriors
3pm, Saturday 21 May
Try Scorers
Shaun Johnson @ $67 FTS/$10 ATS on TAB.
Tyrell Fuimaono @ $51 FTS, $29 FTS Team on Pointsbet.
Ben Hunt & Euan Aitken @ $34 on Bet365.
Fuimaono’s odds won’t be that juicy for long, he was named to start in the second row after originally being on the bench. Our try scorer tool is updated on Tuesday night and regularly throughout the weekend and we tweet updates when players are still at a good price after team changes 24 hours and 1 hour before games.
Hunt & Aitken are a great price for their career try scoring stats and noticeably higher than all other sites. Shaun Johnson is a great play however you want to look at it. He was a great last try scorer bet when his running game was stronger so the $67 for LTS stands out as well!
NRL Draftstars
If you’ve played NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy, the concept of daily fantasy sports (DFS) could be an exciting option for another way to stay involved with the NRL. Draftstars are Australia’s only DFS platform and have contests ranging from free/$2 till the main comp ($15 entry) with prize pools around $8-20k for most games. Check out their site if you want to look into further, they use the same data & similar scoring system to NRL Fantasy.
In the first DFS contest for Saturday, Tohu Harris seems an excellent value pick. He played less minutes than usual last week in his first game back, but with Matt Lodge also week (he’s now left the club), we think Harris could play around 30 minutes on the edge and then around 30 minutes in the middle of the field. A perfect opportunity for him to wrack up a big DFS score. Jack Bird also seems a great value play at just $13,670 after a few weeks in the halves.
Moses Suli could be an option to fade (leave out of your team) priced at $18,900 even if he has been in impressive form recently.
Cowboys v Storm
5.30pm, Saturday 21 May
Try Scorers
Chad Townsend @ $67 FTS on TAB
Jeremiah Nanai @ $26 FTS on Bet365
Heilum Luki @ $34 LTS on Bet365.
Brandon Smith @ $41 FTS on TAB.
The Storm are missing Papenhuyzen & Hughes and the Cowboys have been in red-hot form to start the 2022 season. Nanai & Luki have excellent try scoring stats in their career so far so the $26 & $34 for them respectively is a great price. Brandon Smith had a ridiculously good 2021, where he scored the first try in the match in 4 of 24 matches and scored at least one try in a match ten times. He’s been quiet in 2022 so far but with a few key players missing, we think the $41 is a great price for him to sneak over early. Townsend is purely.a value play, we love the $67 for a half who has been in great form against a noticeably weaker Storm outfit.
NRL Draftstars
Grant, Munster & Cotter seem the 3 standout players in this game. They have the highest ceiling range (average of their 3 biggest scores in 2022) in this contest by far. In terms of value, Brandon Smith at just $12,240 could be a great pick. He’s been relatively quiet this year and his DFS scores reflect that. But with a few key players missing for the Storm and a blockbuster game against another top 4 opponent, we think Smith could have a breakout game this weekend.
Roosters v Panthers
7.35pm, Saturday 21 May
Try Scorers
Nat Butcher @ $34 FTS Team/$81 FTS on TAB.
Lindsay Collins @ $81 FTS Team & LTS Team on TAB.
Both of these are due to positional changes and won’t be around until kick-off. Yes they are playing Penrith but a 2nd rower at $81 and Collins at $81 just to score the Roosters’ first try are both great value.
NRL Draftstars
Tago, Koroisau & Liam Martin are all great value and have high ceiling range numbers. They’d make a great start to your DFS team for this contest.
With the Roosters being ravaged by injury, any of their middle forwards or Nat Butcher (likely to get 80 mins in the 2nd row) should all be good value picks.
Given the rain expected for this game, the opposition & the fact that the Roosters have been inconsistent this year, we think James Tedesco could be a great option to fade at his $21,280 price tag.
Tigers v Bulldogs
6pm, Friday 20 May
Try Scorers
The best way to use the value finder tool is to sort by different column headings to see where the value lies in each game. For model, historical & mark value – you want to see the highest possible number (highlighted green) to identify the best value. Model value is the best odds/model odds * 100. That’s how we’ve identified Hastings as a good FTS play.
Paul Vaughan Anytime Try Scorer @ $12 on Topsport. If you converted Vaughan’s career try scoring strike rate to betting odds, it’d be less than $7. He’s looked good in recent weeks and the $12 on offer for him to score a try at any point in the match when he should be up for big minutes seems like a great price here.
Stefano Utoikamanu Anytime Try Scorer @ $10 on Sportsbet. Utoikamanu was on fire in 2021 and was being labeled the next Payne Haas. He also scored 6 tries in 21 games in 2021. It’s only his second game back from injury, but $10 is a great price for him to get over against the struggling Bulldogs.
Jackson Hastings First Try Scorer @ $41 on Pointsbet. Hastings has had an enormous impact on the Tigers and this will be exaggerated with Luke Brooks also out. The Bulldogs have struggled this season and are missing a couple of their regular players including Addo-Carr so the $41 on offer for Hastings is a great value play.
NRL Draftstars
If you’ve played NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy, the concept of daily fantasy sports (DFS) could be an exciting option for another way to stay involved with the NRL. Draftstars are Australia’s only DFS platform and have contests ranging from free/$2 till the main comp ($15 entry) with prize pools around $8-20k for most games. Check out their site if you want to look into further, they use the same data & similar scoring system to NRL Fantasy.
We think Jackson Hastings is still worth picking in this contest with Luke Brooks out. He’s rated a 2/10 for value but he gets an extraordinary amount of touches per game and this will only increase next to a rookie half. Against a Bulldogs team missing Addo-Carr and struggling in attack, we think Hastings could really put his stamp on this game and is a great pick given he also has the highest ceiling range in the game.
Looking at both forward packs, Luke Garner seems a good pick priced at $11k and moving back into the second row where he should get much higher base stats. Raymond Faitala-Mariner could also be a decent pick at $9k if you’re left to pick someone at basement price.
Eels v Sea Eagles
7.55pm, Friday 20 May
Try Scorers
The best way to use the value finder tool is to sort by different column headings to see where the value lies in each game. For model, historical & mark value – you want to see the highest possible number (highlighted green) to identify the best value. For example, you can see after sorting by ‘market value’ that Marata Niukore is significantly better odds on TAB when compared to the 2nd best site ($67 & $41). This doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a great bet, but can help identify situations when a site has mis-priced a certain player.
Mitchell Moses First Try Scorer @ $34 on Bet365. It’s not often we get three ‘green lights’ for model, historical & market value but Moses at $34 is great value, whichever way you look at it. His model & historical odds suggest he should be priced at $26 and no other site has him higher than that. Great FTS or LTS play @ $34.
Andrew Davey/Josh Schuster @ $51 on Neds/365. One of these two will start in the 2nd row and be a great bet @ $51. The other one will be an excellent option for FTS2H/LTS as they’ll likely get an opportunity to play on the edge later in the game.
NRL Draftstars
Isaiah Papali’i has been on fire and it’ll be hard to leave him out of your team given he’s in the best form, has the highest projected score & ceiling range (average of his 3 best scores in 2022). However, the make or break decision in this contest could be whether you pick Tom Trbojevic. He looked ginger last week in their loss to Brisbane. How long do we keep referring back to his 2021 form and stats? If you think he can pull Manly out of their slump and beat the Eels single-handedly then he could even be a POD (point of difference) selection @ $19k, Reuben Garrick’s scores would be highly correlated to Tom’s, so in our opinion, you either pick both or neither.
Some options to fade (leave out of your team) are Josh Schuster & Andrew Davey. Whichever of these two start the game, it’s likely they play less than 60 minutes. Schuster’s returning from injury so he’ll either start and get a break late in the game or start & come on after 20 minutes.
Knights v Broncos
7.50pm, Thursday 19 May
Try Scorers
Daniel Saifiti @ $75 First Try Scorer on Topsport. The Knights’ likelihood of winning has increased significantly in the 24 hours before this game with Gagai being added to their team and Reynolds being ruled out for the Broncos. Topsport have left Daniel Saifiti’s odds at $75 for FTS, which was already a good value bet for a player in strong form leading into the Origin period!
Jacob Saifiti @ $67 First Try Scorer 2nd Half on TAB. This bet was $101 earlier in the week, which we loved at that price. It’s hard to tip it at $67 on gameday but given the news that Gagai is IN & Reynolds is OUT, it’s still a decent value play for a small stake. He’s already done it twice in his career and given his try scoring form in the last 2 seasons, we still think the $67 is a good price.
Player Performance
David Klemmer Under 50.5 Player Performance Points on Sportsbet. Betting on Klemmer to hit overs on the PP markets has been a great play the last few weeks. However, with Barnett moving back to lock and Jacob Saifiti, Croker & Thompson all in solid form, Klemmer likely won’t get the 60+ minutes he has been. Therefore, his chances of hitting 50+ points in base is unlikely, especially if the Knights do well against a Broncos team missing Adam Reynolds.
NRL Draftstars
Thursday night is usually the biggest prize of the week on Draftstars and tonight is no exception, with $20,000 up for grabs. Our stats bible helps you decide which players have the highest projected scores, ceiling range (average of their 3 highest scores in 2022) & recent form. If you want to learn more, join our discord to ask any questions you have about the rules or strategy of the game. But if you’re an NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach player, it won’t be a difficult transition especially as the data & scoring system is very similar to NRL Fantasy.
Tonight’s contest is an intriguing one with Adam Reynolds being ruled out on game-day. The Knights are back to an almost full-strength pack, so an interesting way to look at this contest could be to stay away from the Knights forwards who would have been in strong recent DFS scoring form and look for high ceiling options.
We think Katoni Staggs & Kalyn Ponga are the two best picks for tonight and David Klemmer & Pat Carrigan are the two players to stay away from (fade). With Haas back for the Broncos & the Knights’ pack almost back to full-strength, both Klemmer & Carrigan will likely score less than their recent form suggests. Whilst Ponga has been controlling the Knights attack and Staggs should be commanding the ball in attack with Reynolds missing and an Origin jersey up for grabs!
NRL Tips for remaining games for Round 11 to come.
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