With Game 1 of the 2021 State of Origin Series only a week away, we thought we’d get a head start on having a look at the value plays as most bookmakers have odds available for the big game. If you’re looking for value plays for the weekend of NRL action, we have odds comparison for first & anytime try scorer markets as well as our Draftstars projections available on Edge. Download the Excel spreadsheet below to compare the odds for First & Anytime tryscorer markets as well as ‘Player of the Match’ for Game 1 of State of Origin.
*Edit* We now have First & Anytime tryscorer odds comparison as well as our predictive model and historical odds all up on Edge.Sporttechdaily.com/NRL!
First Try Scorer
State of Origin can be a difficult game to predict, given there are new combinations for both teams almost every year. What we’ve tried to do is compare the odds available across multiple bookmakers to see where the value may lie. As you can see below, for the ‘First Tryscorer’ market, the odds are pretty close across bookmakers. Latrell Mitchell at $15, Cameron Murray at $26 and Josh Addo-Carr at $9 would be some of our recommendations for the best value currently available. Mitchell and Addo-Carr are on the Blues’ lethal left edge and the best odds available are significantly better than their career strike rate scoring the first try of the match. With Blues’ Coach Freddy Fittler stating Tariq Sims will be on the left edge with Jarome Luai, it means Cam Murray starts on the right with Nathan Cleary. At $26 he represents great value compared to what his odds should be according to his career strike rate ($15.17).
Anytime Try Scorer
For Anytime tryscorer markets, Daly Cherry-Evans seems the clear standout at $7 on Sportsbet. If his odds were framed by his career strike rate, they would be $4.19 as you can see in ‘ATS Historical’. Origin is generally expected to be a lower scoring game, however this can be counteracted by the recent rule changes that have led to more points per game and also the fact that Game 1 will be at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. Latrell Mitchell at $2.75 ad Nathan Cleary at $4.25 also seem like great value bets, available at noticeably higher odds than what they should be priced at according to their career strike rate and two players that will be focal points in attack for the Blues.
Player Of The Match
As we don’t have data on previous years’ State of Origin Player of the Match winners, we’d just like to provide the odds comparison and give some general advice. Historically, ‘spine’ players have most commonly won the award. With NSW the favourites according to the bookies but the game being played in Queensland, if you’re looking to have a bet on this market, it comes down to who you think will win the match. Valentine Holmes at $21 on Neds, noticeably higher than on other sites and playing possibly the only ever Origin game at his home ground in Townsville seems a standout play. If you think Damien Cook can return to form around a dominant NSW team compared to the inconsistent Rabbitohs, his $19 odds on Pointsbet seems much better than elsewhere as does $17 for DCE if you fancy the Queensland Captain taking them to a win on home ground in this unique start to the series.
