The 2022 edition of State of Origin has had it’s fair share of drama. Queensland knocking off the Blues on their home turf. At that stage, Cam Munster was being compared to Wally Lewis. The pressure was on Nathan Cleary. Brad Fittler reacted with key changes including bringing Api Korisau into the starting dummy half role. It worked a charm and Cleary took out the Player of the Match award in Game 2. Munster has been ruled out of the decider at Suncorp and the bookies have states no one wants a bar of the Maroons. Even in a decider at Suncorp! The game it setup perfectly for a Maroons’ ambush at Suncorp. You can find the final teams an hour before kick-off here.

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In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best value tips across try scorer, player of the match & player performance markets. Our general approach is to either find try scorer or player of the match picks that are incorrectly priced by one bookmaker or find you favourable odds according to our model or each player’s career’s stats. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value tips, read on!

Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!

State Of Origin Value Try Scorer Tips

Corey Oates Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $2.80 on Neds

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui ATS @ $11.50 on Sportsbet

The left edge for the Blues has been on fire so far this series. Jack Wighton scored the Blues’ first try in Game 1. Murray scored a try on the left edge in the first game & Angus Crichton in the second. To’o scored one himself in Game 2 as well as Jarome Luai. Given our model thinks Brian To’o at $11 to score the first try is the best value play for the State of Origin Decider, we can’t help but agree!

Queensland’s attack is going to have to adapt to not having their main man Munster around. Kalyn Ponga is likely to have more touches and therefore we love the value on offer at $2.80 for Corey Oates to score a try on Neds.

Tino Fa’asumalaeuai & Josh Papali’i are two of the best try scoring middle forwards in the NRL. We’ve picked out Tino at $11.50 to score a try anytime & Papali’i to score the first try at $71 as our value plays. If you went by their historical strike rate, the odds would be $4.92 & $46 respectively. Queensland’s attack won’t be the same without Munster but their pack will know it’s all on them to get the job done early if the Maroons are to have a shot.

State Of Origin Player Of The Match Value Tips

Josh Papali’i @ $151 on Bet365

Brian To’o @ $101 on Bet365

We’re going back to the well from Game 2 with our tips here. Brian To’o has run for just short of 500 metres, broke 17 tackles, had 2 linebreaks & a try in 2 games. Nathan Cleary was a standout Player of the Match winner in Game 2. However, after what To’o has dished up in the first two games, we think $101 is a great price for him.

Josh Papali’i has been underwhelming in this year’s State of Origin series. He has only played around 25 minutes in both games so far this series. If you think that will be the case again, please ignore what we’re about to say next. Given that this is a decider at Suncorp & they’re missing Cam Munster, we think the stage is set for ‘Big Papa’ to lead from the front. Cherry-Evans may be their captain, but Papali’i is their spiritual leader. If you think he will get his usual 40+ minutes, we think the $151 is a great price.

State Of Origin Value Player Performance Tips

Here’s our latest player performance (PP) tool to check our historical PP stats for all NRL players. Bear in mind that players will have different roles and minutes + goal kicking responsibilities etc in Origin before using the data to make a decision.

Tom Dearden under 35.5 on Bet365

Josh Papali’i over 25.5 on Bet365

Tom Dearden has been in excellent form for the Cowboys in 2022. If he is chosen to start with DCE in the halves, it’ll be well deserved. His player performance (PP) average seems to be around where his line has been set by most bookies. However, with the Maroons being 8 point underdogs in this game and points being hard to come by in Origin games, we think the chance of him getting attacking stats will be less than his usual NRL games for the Cowboys. There is also the chance that he gets benched for Ben Hunt late in the game if the Maroons want Hunt & Grant on the field at the same time.

Josh Papali’i has played 50 minutes across 2 games so far in the two Origin games in 2022. If you think this will continue, it’s best to avoid this play. However, with the game being a decider at Suncorp, we think coach Slater gives him around 35-40 minutes. That should be enough for him to crack 25 player performance points.

NRL Draftstars Analysis

We’ll be doing an in-depth NRL Draftstars preview for beginners with value players, fade options & strategic advice for Game 3 of State of Origin. There’s a $50,000 prize pool in the main contest so if you’re an avid NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy, this is the time to give it a crack!

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