We had a huge July when we tipped three players between $67-101 in Round 18, Luke Keary ($41) & Jack Murchie ($51) to score the first try in Round 19. Last weekend we Ethan Bullemor score the first Manly try at $26 odds and nailed a few anytime try scorer plays including Lomax ($3.30), Manu ($3.25), Young ($3.35), Nikora ($3.80), Fermor & Brimson (both $3.75). In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best NRL value plays across try scorer & player performance markets. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!
Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!
Knights v Sharks
Sunday 4th September, 2pm
Try Scorer Tips
Royce Hunt & Braden Uele FTS @ $51 on Topsport & Neds
Briton Nikora ATS @ $3.20
Wade Graham 1st, 2nd or 3rd Try @ $12 on TAB
Brodie Jones 1st, 2nd or 3rd Try @ $31 on TAB
Jacob & Daniel Saifiti FTS/FTS2H @ $91-101 on Sportsbet & TAB (wait for final teams)
Chris Randall – FTS/LTS Team @ $41 & FTS/LTS @ $101 on TAB
Nikora to score a try anytime at $3.20 is a standout pick. If the Cowboys beat a second string Panthers outfit, the Sharks will have to win this game to lock up second spot and a home final in week one.
Update Sun 4/9 – The Cowboys winning last night means the Sharks have to win this game to lock up a home final next week against the Cowboys. There is a chance they could rest players late but largely we can treat this game like a normal NRL match. We still love our value plays from earlier in the week but still need to wait for final team lists (an hour before kick-off) to pull the trigger on the Saifiti brothers & Uele/Hunt. Nikora, Graham & Jones are great value plays according to our model and Jones is noticeably higher odds on TAB than other sites too.
After final teams confirmed – no further changes so our favourite play is Uele to score the first try at $51 and ATS @ $6.50 on Neds. Daniel Saifiti FTS @ $101 (Sportsbet) and Jacob Saifiti FTS 2nd Half at $101 (TAB). Randall is playing at hooker for the Knights with Brailey out. We love the FTS/LTS Team plays for the Knights starters in Brodie Jones, Randall & Daniel Saifiti due to the possibility of both FTS Team & LTS Team bets winning if the Knights only score 1 try in the game.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Croker, Crossland & Moylan are all good value picks priced at $11,140 or below. Croker is named at lock, Crossland comes in for Milford & Moylan has been in great form so he should feast on the Knights’ feeble defence.
There are seven players with a ceiling range above 70 points. Finucane has been left out of the squad and we think Wilton could actually be a sneaky good value pickup in this contest. Gagai has been in excellent form over the last two weeks and we think he’s worth having in your lineup as the Knights look to finish the season strong on Old Boys Day in Newcastle.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Wests Tigers v Raiders
Sunday 4th September, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Tips
Hudson Young ATS @ $3.20 on Neds
Seb Kris FTS @ $13 on Sportsbet
Kelma Tuilagi FTS/LTS Team @ $26 & FTS2H @ $67 on TAB
Hudson Young is our model’s favourite ATS pick for this game and with his try scoring form in recent weeks we can’t disagree. If the Broncos beat the Dragons on Saturday, the Raiders will need to win this game so we think they’ll be putting in max effort and Young will be a key focal point in attack. Tuilagi is also great value on TAB at the price we’ve quoted above.
Update Sun 4/9 – Tuilagi is still the same price on TAB and we like this play even more now that the Raiders are locked into 8th spot regardless of the result today. Kris is into $12.50 on Sportsbet and we still think that’s a decent value play considering how impressive his career strike rate is at scoring the first try in games (6/44 games). Hudson Young is now $3.25 on Sportsbet – they would have factored in the line which is now closer to 6 points rather than 12 which it was earlier in the week. We still think it’s a great value play.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Jake Simpkin, Tyrone Peachey, Corey Harawira-Naera & Corey Horsburgh are some our favourite value picks in this contest under $11,000. The Dragons beating the Broncos yesterday means that the Raiders are locked into 8th spot. Even if they start the game close to full strength, we expect Papali’i & Tapine to get less minutes and Guler, CHN & Horsburgh especially to play more minutes. Peachey and Simpkin are rated an 8 and 9 out of 10 respectively in our value ratings.
There are five players with a ceiling range above 70 points in this game. We think Young & Tapine could be at risk of playing less minutes than usual so the two standout picks with a high ceiling range are Ofahengaue and Doueihi. Both players have the capability to score over 60 relatively easily and we think Doueihi has the chance to go big especially if he can have a couple of big attacking plays late in the game when the Raiders could potentially clock off mentally and rest some of their stars.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Eels v Storm
Thursday 1st September, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Tips
Nelson Asofa-Solomona First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $67 on Neds
Jesse Bromwich FTS/LTS Team @ $67 on TAB
Tui Kamikamica FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $101 & Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $13 on TAB
Kenny Bromwich ATS @ $6.75 on Sportsbet
The Storm travel to Sydney to attempt to lock up a top four spot. Both teams will know what’s up for grabs here so we’re expecting a tight contest that should go down to the wire. We’re favouring value in the forwards, especially at larger odds as opposed to ATS plays due to this. Jesse Bromwich is $67 just to score the Storm’s first or last try. That’s an awesome price for a noted try scorer playing in a team with Harry Grant at hooker. Nelson Asofa-Solomona is at a great price which could be amazing value if he starts on the right edge, where he has been in great form for the Storm.
Tui Kamikamica is also at a great price ($101 for FTS 2nd Half especially) but with him and NAS it’ll be crucial to check final team lists or our Twitter/Discord an hour before the game to see if they are starting or on the bench. Kenny Bromwich is $6.75 on Sportsbet to score a try, significantly higher than the $5.85 our model thinks his price should be and the $5.30 he is on the next best bookie.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
There are 10 players with a ceiling range (average of their 3 best DFS scores in 2022) in this $15,000 contest. Both sides are playing for a top four spot in the final regular season round in the NRL for 2022. It should be a tight contest but with the Storm missing Jahrome Hughes, we expect Cam Munster to be in absolutely everything for the Storm tonight. Junior Paulo & Reed Mahoney are the best value picks and we suggest Harry Grant and Nelson Asofa-Solomona as picks to access some upside in this contest given it’s likely to be played predominantly through the middle.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Bulldogs v Sea Eagles
Friday 2nd September, 6pm
Try Scorer Tips
Kieran Foran FTS/LTS @ $67 & ATS @ $7 on TAB
Raymond Faitala-Mariner FTS @ $41 & ATS @ $5.20 on Neds
Foran is significantly higher odds than his model & historical strike rate for both anytime & first try scorer markets on TAB in this one. Both teams have nothing to play for and we’re keen to back Foran to get over for a try in his last game for Manly and up against his old side in the Bulldogs. Faitala-Mariner (RFM) is also priced significantly higher than our model’s suggested odds for him for both FTS & ATS and has been in impressive form over the last two months for the Bulldogs.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
There are a bunch of value picks in this contest. We love Lachlan Croker & Dylan Walker as safe good value pickups. With so many first choice starts missing for Manly, both players will need to do a lot of defensive work for the Sea Eagles and are both priced under $14k. Kieran Foran is priced under $11k and we think he’ll have a strong performance in his last game for Manly up against his old team in the Bulldogs.
There are six players with a ceiling range over 70 points in this contest. Both teams have been in poor form over the last few weeks. If you think Manly can shock the Dogs and put in one last strong performance in 2022, then DCE & Olakau’atu would be the way to go. If you think the Dogs can put on an attacking masterclass, Burton, Addo-Carr & Averillo would be a great combination to build your lineup around.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Roosters v Rabbitohs
Friday 2nd September, 7.55pm
Try Scorer Tips
Joey Manu ATS @ $2.91 on Playup
Lachlan Ilias FTS/LTS @ $41 on Pointsbet/Sportsbet
Cam Murray FTS/LTS @ $41 on TAB
Cam Murray is priced at over 200% of what the odds would be if you went by his career strike rate to score the first or last try. Up against their arch rivals and at the opening of the new Stadium, we think he’s great value to get over first in this one. Lachlan Ilias has been playing much better football over the last few weeks and we think the $41 to score the first or last try is a good value play. Joey Manu has been popping up all over the field and we agree with our model that $2.91 for him to score a try at any point in the game is great value.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Key thing to note for this game is that both teams are now locked into sixth and seventh spot. So they may rest one or two of their stars so watch out for final team lists! If the teams are at full strength, there are 8 players with a ceiling range over 70. We’d recommend fading the backs like Latrell, Manu & Tedesco. Even if they do play, we think they may only play around 60 minutes. Both teams will be fired up to put on a show for the opening of the new Stadium so we think if you are going to spend big, the edge forwards may be where you could spend more of your salary cap. Angus Crichton & Nat Butcher seem like good options if you are confident the Roosters can put up a strong performance early in this contest at their new home ground.
Of the cheaper options in this contest, Fletcher Baker, Hame Sele, Mark Nicholls & Egan Butcher are the best picks under $11,000. Even if the sides go out full strength, they’re likely to give more minutes to their bench forwards to prepare them for the finals.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Warriors v Titans
Saturday 3rd September, 3pm
Try Scorer Tips
Sam McIntyre FTS @ $71 on Sportsbet
Tino Faasumaleaui FTS @ $67 on Neds & ATS @ $8.25 on Sportsbet
Tanah Boyd ATS @ $5.80 on Sportsbet
Philip Sami ATS @ $3.20 on TAB
AJ Brimson ATS @ $3.50 on Bet365
Big Tino to score a try anytime at $8.25 is significantly higher than his historical strike rate and one of our favourite plays of the weekend.
Update Sat 3/9 – Our picks from earlier in the week are close to the same odds and we think they’re great value picks aside from Brimson who has now been crunched into $3 on 365. This game is setup perfectly for same game multis and anytime try scorer plays. Both teams have nothing to play for, the Warriors are missing 3 players who were originally named and the total is set at 57.5 points! Sami and Boyd are our model’s two favourite picks. Tino’s odds are great compared to his historical strike rate.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
The Warriors will want to put on a show in front of their home crowd but aside from that, there’s not much on the line in this game. We’re expecting a high scoring affair so it’d make most sense to spend your salary cap on backs or players with a high ceiling range. Of the players with a ceiling range above 70, we think Brimson, David Fifita & Greg Marzhew would be the best picks. Shaun Johnson would be a strong fade option even if he does play as he may be playing injured just because it’s the last game of their season.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Dragons v Broncos
Saturday 3rd September, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Tips
Jack Bird FTS @ $41 on Topsport/TAB
Kotoni Staggs ATS @ $3.10 on TAB
Update Sat 3/9 – Jack Bird has been in great form over the last few weeks, scoring two tries a couple of weeks ago in the 2nd half. He’d love to seal the Broncos fate in 2022 and we think the $41 is a good price for him to score first or last and we’ll also add the $5.80 for him to score a try anytime on Sportsbet as a value play. Staggs is our model’s favourite value play for this game and even though he hasn’t been in the best form, the Broncos will know they have to win by a big margin to have any chance of making the finals so we agree that it’s a good play.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
The Broncos need to win this game by a significant margin to have a shot at making the finals. The Dragons have a few ex-Broncos players who would love to end the season on a high and ruin the Broncos finals chances. Te Maire Martin seems a standout pick at $9,000. The Broncos will be focusing on their attack so he should get plenty of chances to get involved. If Andrew McCullough isn’t named then Jayden Sullivan is a great pick at his price as well considering his try scoring form in 2022.
There are six players with a ceiling range above 70 in this contest and we couldn’t recommend not picking any of them. The Broncos players are obviously good picks in this game as they will be looking to put on a big score against the Dragons. However, Jack Bird is an intriguing pick that could help differentiate your lineup. He’s been in everything the last couple of weeks and we think he could put on a big score up against his old club.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Nikora to score a try anytime at $3.20 is a standout pick. If the Cowboys beat a second string Panthers outfit, the Sharks will have to win this game to lock up second spot and a home final in week one.
Cowboys v Panthers
Saturday 3rd September, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Tips
Val Holmes ATS @ $2.7 on TAB
Murray Tualagi & Kyle Feldt ATS @ $1.74 on Neds
Jeremiah Nanai ATS @ $2.15 on Neds
The Cowboys need to win this game to try to lock up second spot on the ladder and a home final. The Panthers are essentially playing a second string lineup so we love the four players above and think they’re great value.
Update Sat 3/9 – Holmes is still $2.70 to score a try anytime on TAB and is one of our model’s favourite picks for this weekend. With the Cows needing to win this game to have a shot at a top two spot, we think they’ll put on a big score against a second string Panthers lineup so we love Holmes at this price. Nanai, Feldt & Taulagi are slightly shorter than the price we’d quoted earlier in the week but they’re still a good price according to our model or historical strike rate (Nanai) so we’d still recommend them as a value pick.
Important – Our model doesn’t accurately predict the odds for rookies. So in the case of the Panthers rookies including Jenkins, Falls, Turuva etc – only bet on them if you think they are good value, disregard our model’s price and value ratings here.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
The Panthers have rested almost their whole first choice lineup in this game. The Cowboys have to win this game to give them a chance of holding on to second spot and a home final. There is a chance Tabuai-Fidow gets shifted to the bench if Dearden gets brought into the starting lineup. Any Panthers forwards who have been part of their NRL squad this season will be good value pickups. Mitch Kenny is their Captain this week and is priced at only $12,300. J’maine Hopgood is rated 10/10 in our value ratings and is priced at only $11,250.
There are five players with a ceiling range over 70 points in this contest. No surprises here – we think Holmes, Robson & Nanai are all good choices.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
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