In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best value tips across try scorer, player of the match & player performance markets. Our general approach is to either find try scorer or player of the match picks that are incorrectly priced by one bookmaker or find you favourable odds according to our model or each player’s career’s stats. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer tips, read on! Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!
Broncos v Dragons
Sunday 10th July, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Tips
Kobe Hetherington & Keenan Palasia FTS/LTS @ $101 on TAB
Tariq Sims FTS/LTS @ $81 on TAB
Francis Molo FTS2H @ $101 on TAB
Jayden Sullivan FTS @ $34 & ATS @ $6 on Sportsbet
The Broncos forward pack has been decimated due to injuries & Origin commitments. All 4 forwards are more than 1.5 times better priced on TAB than they are on other sites. They are also all strong ball runners that we think are all more likely to score a tries than other well priced forwards such as Aaron Woods or Blake Lawrie.
Dragons fans will be excited to see a glimpse of their future with Ramsay, Amone & Sullivan in their spine with Hunt out due to Origin. Sullivan is priced really well on Sportsbet, paying $34 to score the first try & $6 to score a try at any point in the match.
NRL Draftstars
The Broncos have been ravaged by injuries & players missing due to Origin selection. This means there are some great value options in their forward pack. Zac Hosking should play 60+ minutes purely because there isn’t enough depth in their team for someone to replace him! He’s priced at $9,900 and projected to score 35 points. In the Broncos pack, the middle forwards are Palasia, James, Hetherington & Kennedy. You can’t go wrong picking any of them, given they are priced similarly. We would suggest building the rest of of your team and then fitting in a couple of these value picks to complete your lineup.
Kotoni Staggs has the third highest ceiling range (average of his 3 highest scores in 2022) and is priced at only $13,350. We think he’s also a great pick in this contest.
Looking at the Dragons, Ravalawa looks like a great value options under $10k. Outside of Zac Lomax and up against an inexperience left-side winger (Hoeter), we think Ravalawa could be in for a big day out with a couple of tries today. With so many players across both teams missing for this contest, there aren’t many players with a high ceiling range. Therefore we think Jack de Belin, Suli & Lomax are all worthy options. Lomax especially up against the inexperienced Broncos’ left edge would be a great option. And de Belin should do well against a largely second string Broncos pack.
Adam Reynolds is our pick as the player to fade in this contest. He’s playing behind a noticeably weaker Broncos pack & has a rib injury he’s been nursing. We think he’ll have less opportunities for attacking plays & the Broncos will score less tries and therefore he’ll have less goal kicks also. He’s also by far the most expensive player in this DFS contest and definitely not worth paying up for.
Our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible. Remember you can download our projections and upload them to the cruncher on Draftstars.
Player Performance Markets
You can check out every NRL player’s Player Performance stats here. You can filter by minutes played, position & season.
CHT scores š„ Was around double the odds he should have been, always pays to get on early! https://t.co/WNWmnE8Xhl
— Wicky (@wickyai) July 3, 2022
Sharks v Storm
Thursday 7 July, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Tips
Chris Lewis First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $41 on TAB/Neds/Bet365
Jesse Bromwich FTS/LTS @ $81 on TAB
Dale Finucane FTS Team @ $67 on TAB
Wade Graham FTS Team @ $31 on TAB
Ronaldo Mulitalo FTS @ $11.50 & ATS @ $2.45 on Neds
Ronaldo Mulitalo has been in great form for the Sharks and is priced significantly better than our model’s suggested odds for him to score the first try. He’s on the Sharks’ left edge, up against Lewis, Seve & Anderson for the Storm. The Storm have been historically weaker on this side of the field too, so we think it’s an excellent value play.
Chris Lewis will be on the Storm’s right edge, running at Matt Moylan. We like the matchup but $41 is also a great price according to our model.
Wade Graham is priced at $51 to score the first try on TAB. He’s not the player he was a couple of years ago when he was playing for the Blues, but the way we’ve suggested playing this bet is $31 for him to score the Sharks’ first try. He’s been starting on the edge and moving to the middle for parts of the game when Wilton comes on. So this allows us to get the best value out of this bet as he’ll only be on the edge early on. And also if the Storm score 2-3 tries early, he just needs to score the first try for the Sharks.
Jesse Bromwich is a great price compared to his career strike rate of scoring the first try in the match. With Finucane, it’s purely the number of $101 that we like. However, once again, we’ve suggested playing it as $67 for him to score the Sharks’ first try. Finucane may miss the game if he’s called into the Blues’ squad, however the bet will just be voided.
NRL Draftstars
Nicho Hynes & Toby Rudolf have been ruled out of this game due to Covid. Talakai will also be missing as he’s playing for the Blues in next week’s State of Origin decider. The Storm will be missing Munster, Grant & Felise Kaufusi.
Braydon Trindall & Chris Lewis are the two clear value picks in this contest. Trindall was priced as a bench player but will now be starting at halfback for Hynes. Lewis will most likely play 80 minutes on the right edge for the Storm. They’re clearly projected to score at a level that is great value for their starting price.
With Hynes & Rudolf definitely out for the Sharks and Finucane potentially joining them, we think Papenhuyzen & Hughes are great picks. They have the two biggest ceiling ranges in this DFS contest & will get a lot more touches with Munster & Grant missing.
With the greasy surface and the Sharks losing Hynes for this game, we think it’s a good idea fading both Sharks’ wingers. Mulitalo & Katoa have been in impressive form, but the Sharks will likely try to play a more conservative style of footy against the Sharks without Hynes.
Our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible. Remember you can download our projections and upload them to the cruncher on Draftstars.
Player Performance Markets
Dale Finucane has had a frustrating season so far. But this is his 3rd game in a row, he’s up against his old side & is about to head in to Blues camp after the game. On top of this, the Sharks are missing Toby Rudolf from their pack due to Covid. As you can see on our Player Performance stats tool, he cleared 40.5 in his first 5 games this season. He seems to need around 50 minutes to score 40 points. In greasy conditions and with a couple of games behind him, we think he can score around 45 points in around 55 minutes. He’s $1.90 to score over 40.5 points on Topsport.
You can check out every NRL player’s Player Performance stats here. You can filter by minutes played, position & season.
Knights v Rabbitohs
Friday 8 July, 7.55pm
Try Scorer Tips
Tom Burgess & Daniel Saifiti FTS @ $101 on TAB
Jacob Saifiti FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $101 on TAB (Scratch this – he’s now playing for the Blues in the Origin decider)
Mitch BarnettĀ 1st, 2nd or 3rd Try @ $18 on TAB
Cody Walker FTS @ $19 on Pointsbet
Anthony Milford ATS @ $6.25 on Sportsbet
Anthony Milford has been in decent form for the Knights in recent weeks and once again our model has highlighted him as a value play. With not much value around this weekend in anytime try scorer markets, he may be a good start to your same game multis.
Cody Walker’s strike rate of scoring the first try in games converted to betting odds would be around $14. We’ve found him at $19 for this crunch game against the Knights. With Cook, Murray, Arrow & Graham out he’ll know that any points the Rabbitohs score will need to be through him or Latrell.
Even though Kalyn Ponga is out, the left edge for the Knights was on song last weekend with Edrick Lee scoring 5 tries. Mitch Barnett is priced at $51 to score the first try in this game. As he’ll likely play the whole game on the edge, we’ve suggested betting on him to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try at $18 on TAB.
Tom Burgess & Daniel Saifiti are both priced significantly better on TAB at $101 to score the first try. Both players are strong ball runners and it’s a case of going with your instincts & reading the conditions that suggests that this is a good price.
NRL Draftstars
The Rabbitohs are missing Cook, Murray, Sele, Nicholls & Arrow from their forward pack next week. Obviously, this opens up opportunities for new players to play more minutes and therefore score better in the $15,000 contest on Draftstars. The two cheapest players that are good value are Cartwright & Moale. Cartwright should get close to a full game in the 2nd row so is clearly good value at $10,390. Moale has showed that he’s a strong ball runner, scoring a try in Rep Round a couple of weeks ago. Given he’s named to start at lock, he’ll be great value for his price tag of $9,000 even if he doesn’t get to the 43 points we have him projected for.
The Knights’ wingers scored all 8 of their tries last weekend. Edrick Lee scored 5 & Dom Young scored 3 on the right wing. They are both still priced around $10,000 which we think is a great price considering Tex Hoy was already playing in Ponga’s spot at full-back last week. So the Knights’ form is improving & the Rabbitohs are clearly understrength.
We think the best way to go in this contest is the Rabbitohs middle forwards + Knights wingers OR Rabbitohs’ superstars Cody Walker & Latrell Mitchell.
A clear fade option would be Chris Randall. He’s done a serviceable job for the Knights this season, however, with Jayden Brailey back his minutes will be significantly reduced. He relies on base stats to score his DFS points, so he’ll be someone we strong recommend avoiding with the Knights’ Co-Captain back in the team.
Our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible. Remember you can download our projections and upload them to the cruncher on Draftstars.
Player Performance Markets
You can check out every NRL player’s Player Performance stats here. You can filter by minutes played, position & season.
Wests Tigers v Eels
Saturday 9th July, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Tips
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS 2nd Half @ $81 on TAB & ATS @ $14 on SB
Marata Niukore 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $31 on TAB
Reagan Campbell-Gillard FTS/LTS @ $81 on TAB
Jacob Liddle FTS 2nd Half @ $101 & ATS @ $16 on TAB
Stefano Utoikamanu looked like Haas 2.0 in 2021. Unfortunately, injuries have interrupted his progress in 2022. However, we still love him at this price to score a try anytime & the first try in the 2nd half. The Tigers’ had a disappointing result last week, but they were up against a Warriors’ team playing their first home game in over 1000 days. The Eels have already dropped a couple of surprising losses this season. Missing Paulo & likely Ryan Matterson as well, we think the Tigers could compete in this one.
Niukore & RCG are both priced really well on TAB compared to other sites & our model’s suggested odds. As we’ve mentioned above, the Eels may be missing two of their best forwards. RCG & Niukore will have a huge role to play and we think they are both great options at the $81 price to score the first or last try.
Note – Jackson Hastings was $101 to score the first try (and therefore a great price for ATS and other TS markets) earlier in the week. We usually publish our Punter’s Preview article on the first game day of the round but our odds comparison tool is live on Tuesday evenings once team lists are announced. So if you want to guarantee you find the best value plays, make sure you check out our tool on Tuesday evenings!
NRL Draftstars
Kelma Tuilagi, Oregon Kaufusi & Makahesi Makatoa are all great options priced under $11,000. The Eels pack is missing Junior Paulo & Ryan Matterson is reportedly set to be a late out also. If this is the case, Kaufusi & Makatoa will likely score 30-40 DFS points each. Tuilagi is still priced really well for a starting back rower who will play close to 80 minutes. Even though the Tigers have struggled in 2022, he has shown glimpses of attacking potential which is a great sign for such a young rookie.
From the 5 players that have the highest ceiling range in this contest, Joe Ofahengaue stands out as a great pick. He’s averaged 65 DFS points in his last 3 games. For him to have a ceiling range of 74 given he largely relies on base stats is really impressive and it’d be a great start to building your team.
Dylan Brown, Mitch Moses & Isaiah Papali’i are the 3 players with the highest ceiling range in this contest. All 3 have been scoring around 45-55 in the last 3 weeks and it’s genuinely difficult to split which one you should start with. However, given the Eels’ forward pack potentially missing two of their stars, we think Papali’i is the way to go.
We would recommend building your lineup around Ofahengaue & Papali’i, pairing them with two of Kaufusi, Makatoa or Tuilagi and then deciding on who you think will get attacking points before selecting your HH & OBs.
Our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible. Remember you can download our projections and upload them to the cruncher on Draftstars.
Player Performance Markets
You can check out every NRL player’s Player Performance stats here. You can filter by minutes played, position & season.
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