In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best value tips across try scorer, player of the match & player performance markets. Our general approach is to either find try scorer or player of the match picks that are incorrectly priced by one bookmaker or find you favourable odds according to our model or each player’s career’s stats. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer tips, read on! Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!
NRL Round 17 Punter’s Preview – Click Here
Warriors v Wests Tigers
Sunday 3 July, 2pm
Try Scorer Tips
Josh Curran FTS @ $41 on Pointsbet
Luke Garner FTS @ $34 on Bet365
Stefano Utoikamanu ATS @ $12.50 on Sportsbet
Chanel Harris-Tavita ATS @ $4.50 & FTS Team @ $21 on Pointsbet (Update 2.7)
Tohu Harris has been named on the edge but has been starting the game in the middle of the field for a few weeks now for the Warriors. Curran has been named at lock and priced accordingly. We think he’s great value at $41 for someone who will be playing for a fired-up Warriors side at home against the Tigers. His odds should be around $26-30 where most sites have Harris and Murchie priced at.
Luke Garner has been in impressive try-scoring form for the Tigers in recent weeks and should be priced around $26-30. He is priced at $34 to score the first try on Bet365 which we think is great value.
Stefano Utoikamanu had a standout 2021 season and has been quiet in his return from injury so far in 2022. Fresh off a bye week, we think the $12.50 on offer for him to score is a great price. Most other sites have him priced no higher than $8. And if you go by his career try scoring strike-rate, he would be priced at $5.20.
Update 2/7 – Reece Walsh is out due to covid & Chanel Harris-Tavita is starting at full-back. As of 3.45pm Sydney time, Pointsbet have him at extremely juicy odds to score the Warriors’ first try, the 1st or 2nd try of the game or 1st or last try of the game at over $20.
NRL Draftstars
Changes galore in the final team lists for this game. It’s the Warriors’ homecoming and the Tigers have dished up a noticeably weaker line-up to recent weeks, so we think it’s a good idea to go with popular opinion and choose your OBs from the Warriors.
The Tigers’ bench has Adam Doueihi & 2 rookie middle forwards. So it’s safe to say Joe Ofahengaue will be playing close to 80 minutes. He’s close to a lock for this one.
Alex Seyfarth, Musgrove & Utoikamanu are all great value picks for this contest too.
Addin Fonua-Blake has had Covid all week but has still been named on the bench. He’s the perfect fade option, assuming he’ll get less game time than usual.
There were rumours that Brooks was going to be dropped and that he has trained at hooker during the week. With Brown named at hooker and no bench dummy-half, this makes a lot of sense. Definitely another player we’d recommend staying away from.
Preview TBC on game day, our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible.
Player Performance Markets
Joe Ofahengaue over 48.5 PP on Sportsbet looks a great bet. There are two rookies on the Tigers’ bench as well as Adam Doueihi. With Tamou & Twal missing, Ofahengaue could play 80 minutes!
You can look at each NRL player’s player performance stats for the last few years here. Look at their scores & key stats while filtering by season, position & minutes played.
BANG! Griffin Neame gets over for the first try in 2nd half at $67 🔥🔥#NRL #NRLCowboysBroncos #rugbyleague #sportsbet https://t.co/kH7Gg8WOsJ
— Wicky (@wickyai) July 2, 2022
Dragons v Raiders
Sunday 3 July, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Tips
Joseph Tapine FTS @ $67 on TAB
Junior Amone FTS @ $51 on TAB
Francis Molo & Corey Horsburgh FTS 2nd Half @ $101 on TAB
Tapine has been the standout front-rower in the NRL over the last couple of months. He’s been dominant for the Raiders and is priced at $51 or less on every other site. We love the $67 for him to score first in a must-win game for the Raiders.
Amone has been consistently mis-priced by TAB and we’re hoping he can get over early for us at the tempting odds of $51.
Corey Horsburgh has been in great form over the last month and Molo has been a great acquisition for the Dragons in 2022. They are both around $65 or less on every other site so we love the $101 on offer for them to barge over early in the 2nd half.
NRL Draftstars
Ryan Sutton starts for Adam Elliott in the only change for either team. With the weather in Sydney, spending more money on your middle forwards rather than OBs would be advisable.
Aaron Woods, Francis Molo & Zac Woolford all look like great value picks at less than $11,000.
On the premium end, Joseph Tapine & Hudson Young seem the 2 best buys. They have the two highest ceiling ranges in this DFS contest & are in great form.
Preview TBC on game day, our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible.
Player Performance Markets
You can look at each NRL player’s player performance stats for the last few years here. Look at their scores & key stats while filtering by season, position & minutes played.
Sea Eagles v Storm
Thursday 30 June, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Tips
Marion Seve First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $18 on Topsport
Chris Lewis FTS @ $34 on Sportsbet
Nelson Asofa-Solomona FTS 2nd Half @ $51 on TAB
Nick Meaney/Jayden Nikorima – watch out for late mail re Papenhuyzen/Munster.
If Papenhuyzen is playing, Meaney could shift to the wing (from fullback, where he is currently named) and would be great value at his current FTS/ATS price.
However, if Munster is ruled out, Meaney could shift to 5/8th. Or Nikorima could take his place in the halves. Watch out for late mail because there will definitely be a great value play somewhere after final teams are announced an hour before kick-off!
Seve & Lewis will be on the Storm’s right edge up against Morgan Harper’s left edge. Harper has been much better in recent weeks but the memories of Talakai dominating him are still fresh and our model thinks both Lewis & Seve are great value plays.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona is one of the best try scoring middle forwards in the competition. Up against a Manly pack that could see Jake Trbojevic rested or playing reduced minutes, we think the $51 on offer for him to score first in the 2nd half is a great value play.
NRL Draftstars
Cam Munster has been ruled out for the Storm, however Ryan Papenhuyzen makes his return. We love Jahrome Hughes in this $15,000 NRL Draftstars contest as he’s now likely to get more kick metres and more touches being paired with Nick Meaney in the halves.
Chris Lewis starting in the 2nd row at $9,000 is a clear value pick. Brandon Smith at $11,220 is an interesting one. His DFS scoring and try scoring strike rate have both been significantly down on 2021 numbers. If you think he can get back to form then he’s a steal at that price.
Dylan Walker is our favourite pick from the Sea Eagles. Priced at a reasonable $11,150, we think he could score well above the 36 points our model has him projected for. With Jake Trbojevic backing up 4 days after playing 70 minutes for the Blues, Walker should be in for some extra minutes.
Fade Option: Jake Trbojevic. Jake was heroic for the Blues in Game 2 playing over 70 minutes in the middle of the field. Rugby League’s Mr Nice Guy will want to do it all over again for Manly. However, given that this game is only 4 days later, we think his minutes will be managed. There’s no upside with his attacking game either, so we think it’s best to stay away from picking him in your DFS teams.
Player Performance Markets
You can look at each NRL player’s player performance stats for the last few years here. Look at their scores & key stats while filtering by season, position & minutes played.
Knights v Titans
Friday 1 July, 6pm
Try Scorer Tips
Patrick Herbert FTS/LTS @ $31 on TAB/Pointsbet
Mitchell Barnett FTS @ $41 on TAB
David Fifita ATS @ $4.25 on Neds
Tino Faasumalueai ATS @ $6.75 on Sportsbet
We’ve seen this before. David Fifita gets benched. Only plays ~50 minutes. Looks like he’s injured or uninterested. Still ends up scoring a try or two, even if the Titans lose by 10-20 points! His odds would be less than $3 if you went by his career strike rate. They are less than $3.60 on every other site. Even if he gets 50-60 minutes, we love the $4.25 on offer on Neds.
Tino has been great in both Origin games so far for Queensland. He also scored a double for the Titans a couple of weeks ago. The odds seem short for a middle forward, but alongside Josh Papali’i & Cam Murray, Tino is the best try scoring middle forward in the NRL. If you went by his career strike rate of try scoring, his odds would be $4.85. So against a Knights team missing their leader in Kalyn Ponga, we think this price is great value.
NRL Draftstars
This is an interesting game to get a read on with a few changes for both teams. Ponga is out, however, Daniel Saifiti is back. For the Titans, Daniel Fifita is back. From an attacking perspective, the Titans definitely have more firepower but the Knights will want to put in a good effort at home after a run of embarrassing losses there.Generally, we think it’s best to stay away from the Knights pack as they will likely be coming off some inflated scores. Mann & Daniel Saifiti means their pack is back to full-strength. Greg Marzhew is our standout pick in this contest.
In what should be a high scoring game, Greg Marzhew has the highest ceiling range in this contest. He’s a strong ball-runner with great base stats, so we think picking him would be a great start to building your team. Big Tino, David Fifita & Mo Fotuaika are finally all playing together for the Titans and we think going with Fifita especially could be a great high risk/reward play.
Our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible.
Panthers v Roosters
Friday 1 July, 7.55pm
Try Scorer Tips
Drew Hutchison FTS @ $81 on TAB
Victor Radley FTS @ $101 on TAB
Nat Butcher LTS Team @ $51 on TAB
The Panthers are clear favourites and rightfully so. However, it’s important to note almost their full squad played in last weekend’s Rep Round. We think there’s a chance a couple of them get rested. The Roosters are missing Waerea-Hargreaves, but aside from that their pack is back to full strength. This in an all-in game for them and we think Radley & Hutchison are an extremely good price to score first in this contest.
Crichton had a big game for the Blues and Sitili Tupouniua played 80 minutes for Tonga in the back-row last weekend. Butcher will either play his usual middle or get around 20 minutes on the edge for either Crichton or Tupouniua late in the game. So we love the $51 on offer for him to score the last Roosters try.
NRL Draftstars
Nathan Cleary has been in ridiculously good DFS form and it’s hard to imagine the winning team tonight not having him. Brian To’o, Stephen Crichton & Liam Martin are all on his right edge and all coming off a big win for the Blues. It could be a winning formula to pick the red-hot Panthers’ players to start building your side.
If you do that, you’ll need some sub-10k picks to round out your team. Joseph Suaalii & Jaemon Salmon are our two best value picks. Suaalii has been in great try-scoring form & Salmon is likely to pick up some extra minutes with most of the Panthers’ pack being involved in last weekend’s Rep Round.
Our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible.
Bulldogs v Sharks
Saturday 2 July, 3pm
Try Scorer Tips
Corey Allan FTS @ $23 on Neds/TAB & ATS @ $4.20 on Neds (Update 2/7 – scratch this, Allan has been dropped for Declan Casey)
Toby Rudolf FTS @ $81 on TAB
Dale Finucane/Andrew Fifita @ $101 FTS 2nd Half on TAB
Corey Allan has played on the wing the last two games whilst Jacob Kiraz has played in the centres. Considering the Bulldogs’ form, we think this will continue and Allan is great value considering he’s been priced as a centre. The Sharks have lost a couple of winnable games when they’ve been heavy favourites so we think the Bulldogs could pull off another surprise win here. Scratch this – Allan has been dropped.
Rudolf, Finucane & Fifita are priced significantly higher than other sites and are great value considering the class of the Sharks pack against the Bulldogs.
Player Performance Markets
https://tabsoft.co/3OGRVO2
You can look at each NRL player’s player performance stats for the last few years here. Look at their scores & key stats while filtering by season, position & minutes played.
NRL Draftstars
Dale Finucane returns for the Sharks which creates a log-jam for minutes in their forward pack. Given the weather, all middle forwards should generally be good picks. However, we’d like to focus on the Bulldogs pack today. With Luke Thompson overseas and missing the game and the bench having a hooker and a rookie, there are some extra minutes on offer for the Dogs pack.
Raymond Faitala-Mariner has played off the bench in recent weeks but has been in great form. Him, TPJ, Vaughan & Max King are all playing well and will be good picks in today’s DFS contest.
Ceiling range is hard to use as a relevant stat today, but kick-metres might be crucial so Burton will once again be a solid pick. The Sharks have been in inconsistent form so we think fading Hynes could be a good option today as well.
Preview TBC on game day, our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible.
Cowboys v Broncos
Saturday 2 July, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Tips
Payne Haas FTS @ $101 on TAB
Tom Flegler @ $101 FTS 2nd Half on TAB
Griffin Neame @ $67 FTS2H on TAB
Haas has an impressive try-scoring record so far in his young career. He’s scored the first try 3 times in 73 games. Although he’s hampered by injury, the $101 price-tag is too high for a player of Haas’ calibre. Especially with Reuben Cotter missing from the Cowboys’ pack.
Flegler isn’t a noted try scorer but has been in great form for the Broncos. He’s priced at $61 or less on other sites, we purely just love this play at this price.
Neame has been really impressive off the bench for the Cowboys all season. Runs a great line close to the try-line too. He’s between $23-54 on most sites, so we love the $67 on offer on TAB.
NRL Draftstars
It’ll be crucial to see if Payne Haas is named in final team lists before this game. If he is ruled out due to his shoulder injury, Carrigan & Flegler become great buys.
Reuben Cotter is still missing for the Cowboys, so Reece Robson & Jason Taumalolo can be expected to continue their work-rate & DFS scoring to make up for him.
Neame, Jensen & Walters seem like good value cheap picks to complement your premium options in this blockbuster clash of the Top 8 Queensland teams.
Preview TBC on game day, our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible.
Player Performance Markets
You can look at each NRL player’s player performance stats for the last few years here. Look at their scores & key stats while filtering by season, position & minutes played.
Rabbitohs v Eels
Saturday 2 July, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Tips
Cameron Murray FTS @ $41 on Bet365
Alex Johnston FTS @ $10.50 on Neds
Alex Johnston ATS @ $2.15 on Neds
Jai Arrow FTS @ $54 on Topsport
Mark Nicholls FTS Team @ $67 on TAB
Damien Cook FTS @ $41 on Bet365
Edit: Nicholls benched, FTS 2nd Half @ $101 is now the play.
With Latrell Mitchell back for the Rabbitohs, we’re expecting the Rabbitohs to be in much better form then their embarrassing loss to the Dragons.
Given the rain in Sydney, Alex Johnston to score anytime doesn’t seem as good. But the price for him and Jai Arrow, both on the Rabbitohs’ left edge is definitely appealing and seems good value.
Cam Murray is priced at more than double what he should be according to his career strike rate at scoring the first try. In a wet game, him and Mark Nicholls to score the Rabbitohs first try @ $67 on TAB both seem excellent value plays!
We think Damien Cook’s running game will suit the type of game we’re expecting in this weather also. He’s $41 to score the first try on Bet365, noticeably higher than most other bookmakers.
NRL Draftstars
This weather will also be affected by Sydney’s constant rain this weekend. Nicholls, Havili, RCG & Oregon Kaufusi are already good value according to our model’s projected scores. So we’d definitely recommend them to start building your side around.
The Eels have lost Ryan Matterson leading into this game and have an outside back & a rookie on the bench. So we love the Eels middle forwards (RCG, Paulo, Niukore & Kaufusi) as DFS picks in this contest.
This seems like the perfect game for Cam Murray & Damien Cook. They’ll have huge tackle counts and they’ll want to revive the Rabbitohs’ season with a big performance tonight.
If you’re going to consider some of the big guns we’ve named above, you’ll need some cheapies. Kaufusi, Nicholls & Havili especially all seem like good picks at a cheap price.
Preview TBC on game day, our projected scores are up on the NRL Draftstars Stats bible.
Player Performance Markets
You can look at each NRL player’s player performance stats for the last few years here. Look at their scores & key stats while filtering by season, position & minutes played.
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