It’s finals footy time and we’ve been on a red hot run so we’re pumped to preview the two blockbuster games this weekend. In week one of the finals we tipped Tom Gilbert to score the first try at $91 after he was named to start on an edge an hour before the game. In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best NRL Finals value plays across try scorer & player performance markets. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!
Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!
Casually hitting at $91 FTS play in the #NRLFinals#NRL #rugbyleague #sportsbet #NRLSharksCowboys https://t.co/f3nV1l75mO
— Wicky (@wickyai) September 10, 2022
Panthers v Rabbitohs
Saturday 24th September, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Tips
Jai Arrow FTS/LTS @ $67 on Bet365 or Dabble or FTS Team @ $26 on Dabble
Cam Murray FTS/LTS @ $67 or FTS Team @ $26 on Dabble
Lachlan Ilias FTS/LTS @ $67 or FTS Team @ $26 on Dabble
Souths are now missing Tom Burgess, Siliva Havili & Alex Johnston in their Preliminary Final against the Panthers. So it’s understandable that they are around 10 point underdogs to the high flying Panthers. However, we think Arrow, Murray & Ilias are good value at the prices listed above. Murray is great value compared to his historical strike rate at scoring the first try in NRL games & also scored a try last weekend against the Sharks. Ilias and Arrow are priced around $47 by our model and across most other sites so we love the $67 on offer for them to score first. We think the best way to play them is $26 for them to score Souths’ first try, given the Panthers are such strong favourites.
All three players should be on the field towards the end of the game so we do also like them as last try scorer picks at the same price on Dabble.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Brian To’o & Mark Nicholls are our two favourite value picks for the $30,000 Draftstars contest for the 2021 Grand Final rematch. To’o gets a 10/10 in our value ratings whereas Nicholls is not far behind at 9/10. To’o has been a value pick in most Origin games & finals this season given his high work-rate and if he does score a try, he can easily exceed our model’s projected score. Nicholls scored the first try last weekend and scored 54 against the Sharks. Although he’s unlikely to repeat his try scoring feats, with Burgess & Havili missing, we think he’ll be a great pickup at $10,250.
There are nine players with a ceiling range (average of their 3 highest DFS scores in 2022) above 70. The first decision to make is whether you think the Panthers will win comfortably against a side missing Havili, Burgess & AJ or Latrell Mitchell & Cody Walker can pull a rabbit out of the hat (no pun intended) and take Souths to the Grand Final. If you think the Panthers win comfortably, pick Nathan Cleary. He has the highest projected score and ceiling range. If the Panthers win, he could come close to getting another 100+ score like he did in week one of the finals. If you think Souths can win or even come close then Walker and Mitchell will have to do the heavy lifting, so we would pick them both. Also Richie Kennar will take AJ’s spot on the left wing and he’s good value at $10,060 if you think Souths can compete tonight.
Our other recommendation would be to spend big on starting middle forwards. Souths are missing Havili and Tom Burgess, so we can see Murray and Tatola especially playing more minutes than usual. They are both in good try scoring form in 2022 so there’s clear upside there too. Fisher-Harris & Yeo will play huge minutes in a do-or-die Prelim final as well.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
"Burgess' inclusion either side of halftime has allowed the Bunnies to charge through the middle across the full 80 minutes and his absence will be further felt with Havili now being ruled out."@JasonNRL "Your Edge" for #NRL Prelim Weekendhttps://t.co/RtXvc7AUIY pic.twitter.com/VexVZvzWfL
— Wicky (@wickyai) September 22, 2022
Cowboys v Eels
Friday 23rd September, 8pm
Try Scorer Tips
Val Holmes Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $3.20 on Bet365
Marata Niukore** ATS @ $5.4 on Neds & FTS @ $34 on TAB
Bailey Simonsson** FTS @ $22 & ATS @ $3.70 on Topsport/SB
Reece Robson First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $41 & ATS @ $6 on Neds
Luciano Leilua LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Wait for final team lists for Niukore & Simonsson. As Opacic is out, Niukore could move to the centres OR Waqa Blake could go to centre to allow Bailey Simonsson to play on the wing. The prices above would be amazing value if these scenarios occurred. Join our free discord channel where we’ll post as soon as teams are finalised and where to find the best odds for either player.
Holmes is our model’s favourite anytime try scorer pick for this game Leilua is a great price to score the last try on Bet365 ($30 or less on other sites). Robson is a noticeably better price on Neds for both FTS & ATS on Neds and also way higher than his career strike rate suggests he should be.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Reed Mahoney is our model’s standout pick in tonight’s $30,000 contest between the Cowboys and the Eels. Rated 10/10 in our value ratings, Mahoney should comfortably exceed the 49 points our model has him projected for unless it’s a really high scoring game. He got 59 two weeks ago against the Panthers and 35 in the Eels’ comfortable win against the Raiders. In a do-or-die Preliminary Final against the Cowboys, we think Mahoney is a great way to start building your lineup. Taumalolo & Gutherson are both rated 9/10 in our value ratings and we think they’re definitely two of the better value picks in this contest as well.
There are 12 players in this game with a ceiling range above 70 points. And a further 4 with a ceiling range above 80 points. As always, we think it’s crucial to consider who you think will do well in the game. If you think the Eels will win, picking the right side combination of Moses & Papali’i would be a great way to spend a big chunk of your salary cap. If you think the Cowboys can get the job done at home, we love Nanai, Holmes & Robson. Robson can get through a decent amount of tackles but also has flair in his game to break the line and score a try. Holmes is the Cowboys’ goal-kicker and is a big game player so we think his ceiling range is definitely within reach. Nanai is up against Parramatta’s left edge where Tom Opacic won’t be playing. So you’ll either have Niukore (a forward) or Waqa Blake defending there – it’s a matchup we think can be favourable for Nanai to go big.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
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