After a cracking start to the 2022 season, all sixteen teams are ready to put on a show at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane for NRL Magic Round. While the rain expected to hit Brisbane over the next few days may be frustrating for the crowd, it presents an exciting opportunity for punters looking to find some value in betting markets over the eight games. We’ve found some of the best plays for try scorer markets as well as an explanation of how to get the most of our tools. We also mention our stats bible for Draftstars (daily fantasy sports) & Player Performance markets resource which could be interesting especially if you’re an avid NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach player. If you’re not a punter but want to check our our NRL Magic Round preview, check out our weekly rugby league analytics article instead.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us on whichever form of social media you prefer. If you’d like to chat about sports betting, Draftstars or analytics in general come join our community on Discord! We’ll be adding tips for Saturday & Sunday’s games soon also & just a reminder that all our tools, content & groups are free.
Sharks v Raiders
1.50pm Sunday 15th May
Elliot Whitehead FTS @ $51 on Bet365.
Seb Kris FTS @ $29 on Bet365.
We’re not a big fan of Matt Frawley @ 81 FTS which our model’s favourite bet for this game, however he did score a try last week and if you think the Raiders can compete early in this game it could be a good bet.
The two we love for this game for the FTS market are Whitehead and Kris FTS. Both noted try scorers early in games, their odds would be $22 & $7 respectively if you went by their career strike rate of scoring the first try. Clearly the Raiders are outsiders in this game, so the odds shouldn’t be that short but we feel the $51 & $29 are a good price for two players who are noted try scorers for the Raiders.
Roosters v Eels
4.05pm Sunday 15th May
Joseph Manu @ $21 on Bet365 FTS or LTS.
Mitchell Moses @ $34 on Bet365 FTS or LTS.
Victor Radley @ $67 on TAB FTS.
Manu and Moses are both significantly higher odds on Bet365 than other sites, with Manu’s price being significantly higher than our model’s price for him to score the first try and Moses’ price noticeably higher than what his career strike rate suggests it should be. They would be more popular in NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach circles but we think either of them would be great value First Try Scorer bets for NRL Magic Round!
Radley’s odds should be closer to $44 if you go by his career strike rate and if you think the Roosters could stay in the battle early here, we love the $67 for him.
Tigers v Cowboys
6.25pm Sunday 15th May
Jeremiah Nanai/Tom Dearden @ $21 FTS on Bet365.
Tom Gilbert @ $34 FTS on TAB.
Jason Taumalolo or Reuben Cotter FTS @ $81 on TAB.
With the Tigers already missing Laurie & Nofoaluma and two more outside backs being ruled out, their edge defence could be in for a disastrous night against a Cowboys team who is on fire.
Nanai and Dearden have been in excellent try scoring form, with Dearden scoring the first try in 3/9 games this season & Nanai scoring in 5/9 games this season. So the $21 for either of them to score the first try is a clear standout pick against a weak Tigers team.
Tom Gilbert has looked really strong on the edge for the Cowboys, so the $34 is a great price and Taumalolo & Cotter are purely based on the $81 being a big price for two of the most in-form middle forwards in the NRL this season.
NRL Magic Round 2022 Draftstars
Draftstars have paid daily fantasy sports contests with up to $15,000 to be won on every game of NRL Magic Round. Our stats bible gives you projections for each player and further advanced stats to help you make your team. You can also enter teams in their free or $2 contests to get started as you learn the game. If you’re part of a tipping competition or love your NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach, it’s a fun way to get involved with the action. Follow us on Twitter for regular pre-game tips after tips are finalised 1 hour before each game & if you have any questions around how to play or DFS strategy, join our free Discord group chat!
Player Performance Markets
As an example, Pat Carrigan’s line is set at 50.5 in the Broncos v Manly game. With Payne Haas back and the Broncos pack in good form, if you think Carrigan will struggle to get as many minutes and therefore base stats, the under 50.5 seems like a reasonable value bet. It’s a market that most punters are inexperienced with. However, especially if you’ve been playing NRL Fantasy or Supercoach for a while and with our resource at your disposal, it should be another entertaining way of getting involved in NRL Magic Round 2022.
Bulldogs v Knights
6pm Friday 13th May
We’ll start off with some of the best value plays in the first game of NRL Magic Round and then give you some tips on how to best use our value finder tool. Generally we think it would be a better idea to bet on FTS/LTS/FTS 2nd half rather than Anytime Try Scorer (ATS). This is due to the likelihood of lower scoring games due to the rain and 8 teams all playing on the same ground throughout Magic Round.
Paul Vaughan @ $81 (TAB) – First Try Scorer, Last Try Scorer. Career try scorer stats are excellent. If you convert his career try scoring stats since 2016 to odds, it would be 38. He’s done it 5 times in his last 124 games. He’s also got one of the best try scoring strike rates amongst middle forwards in the comp. Up against a Knights pack which is missing is struggling and still missing key players such as Frizell and Mann, Vaughan at $81 odds is a great play.
Jacob Saifiti @ $101 (TAB) – First Try Scorer 2nd Half. Can also bet on him Last Try Scorer Team @ $67 on TAB. Jacob has stepped out from Daniel’s shadow in the last 12 months, scoring 4 tries in 32 games since Round 1, 2021. The $101 (LTS) & $67 (LTS team) are even juicier as the Knights have struggled for chemistry in attack & the Bulldogs have been reasonably strong in defence this season. For a game that is likely to be a grind through the middle, it’s easy to see why this is a good value play for Jacob Saifiti who is coming off scoring a try against the Cowboys last week.
Lachlan Fitzgibbon @ $34 (Bet365) – First Try Scorer, Last Try Scorer. Our model loves Fitzgibbon at $34. Aside from the price (he’s $26 or lower elsewhere), he’s also the left edge backrower on Ponga’s favoured left edge for the Knights and if the Knights are going to score points, it’ll likely be through Ponga going to his favoured side. Worth a play for FTS or LTS @ $34.
How to best use our try scorer odds comparison tool
In the First Try Scorer dropdown, you can see ‘model value’ helps you identify bets that our model’s odds thinks are good value. It’s simply model’s odds/best odds. Waddell, Vaughan & Fitzgibbon seem some of the best plays here.
Sorting by historical value helps identify which bets are good value compared to their career strike rate. Historical strike rate converted to odds/best odds. Here we can see Jacob Saifiti’s $101 is a great price, however we’ve tipped him as a First Try Scorer 2nd Half pick as he’s named on the bench. If Edrick Lee is ruled out, Enari Tuala likely shifts to the wing so the $19 for him on Pointsbet would be extremely good odds if that was the case. The historical odds do not take anything else into consideration aside from the player’s strike rate throughout his career. Whereas our model odds consider position, line, total etc.
Sorting by market value shows you which players are significantly higher odds on one site compared to all the others. Again you can see Jacob Saifiti given a ‘142’ in ‘market value’ and highlighted green. $101/$71 (his best odds/2nd best odds) is 142% hence he’s been suggested as ‘market value’ here.
Broncos v Sea Eagles
8.05pm Friday 13th May
Ethan Bullemor @ $31 (Sportsbet/Neds) – Bullemor scored 3 tries in 20 games in 2021 predominantly playing as a bench forward. The way he scored his tries had us excited about his prospects as a try scorer option in 2022 starting on an edge for Manly. Up against his old side playing outside Keiran Foran, the $31 for him to seems like great value. If you’re an NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach player, he’s likely let you down this season but let’s hope he can pay you back in NRL Magic Round by getting over for a try early in the game!
Middle Forwards @ $101-126 – Our model consistently thinks middle forwards are good value when their odds are over $101. Although no model is perfect, given that it’s expected to be a close game and the rain around, whichever forwards you think are most likely to score seem to be a good price at ~$101 for first try scorer or FTS 2nd half markets. Our favourites are Jake Trbojevic, Kobe Hetherington & Thomas Flegler.
How to best use our try scorer odds comparison tool
In the First Try Scorer dropdown, you can see ‘model value’ helps you identify bets that our model’s odds thinks are good value. It’s simply model’s odds/best odds. Depending on which team you think will do better, Garrick/DCE or Reynolds/Capewell seem like good plays here.
Sorting by historical value helps identify which bets are good value compared to their career strike rate. Historical strike rate converted to odds/best odds. This helps us identify Kobe Hetherington as a FTS 2nd half play or Jake Trbojevic if you think he can relive some of his try scoring form from earlier in his career.
Sorting by market value shows you which players are significantly higher odds on one site compared to all the others. This helps highlight how much better Hetherington & Trbojevic’s odds are on SB & TAB respectively. Doesn’t always make it a great bet, but given the weather and the style of game expected it could be a great value play here.
Warriors v Rabbitohs
3pm, Saturday 14th May
Jacob Host @ $41 on Pointsbet/365 First Try Scorer. Playing on the edge up against a Warriors team with two new edge defence combinations, Hosts’ relatively poor try scoring career stats aren’t as important as the opportunity on offer here against the frail Warriors defence. Our model has him priced at $34, and with the Warriors showing some poor form in recent teams, the $41 is a standout value play in this game.
Siliva Havili @ $101 on TAB – FTS 2nd Half. Named to come off the bench, Havili’s looked in good form in recent weeks. Against a weak Warriors team, missing Aitken, Curran & Egan in the forward pack, $101 is a ridiculously good price for Havili to sneak over early in the second half.
Dragons v Titans
5.30pm, Saturday 14th May
Isaac Liu FTS @ $67 on Bet365. This bet was $81 earlier in the week, so it always pays to be early on try scorer markets. We update our odds comparison tool on Tuesday evenings shortly after team lists are announced at 4pm Sydney time. Not much to say for his career stats but Bet365 simply haven’t considered that he’s starting in the 2nd row this week. $67 for a 2nd rower against the Dragons is a great price. Our model has him priced at almost half of that ($35)!
JDB/Ese’ese/Mo Fotuaika @ $101. JDC & Ese’ese have scored tries in recent weeks and Fotuaika will want to lock down his Origin spot and continue his recent strong form. All 3 are best odds on TAB, the $101 for Ese’ese FTS 2nd half stands out, he literally achieved this last week scoring in the 42nd minute. In fact, he’s done it 3 times in his last 44 games since 2019! JDB & Fotuaika at $67 FTS team also seem decent value.
Storm v Panthers
7.45pm, Saturday 14th May
Isaah Yeo @ $81 First Try Scorer on TAB. Yeo has become one of the best forwards in the NRL over the last couple of years. This hasn’t necessarily meant better try scoring stats, but again this is a case of chasing a high number. The $81 on offer on TAB is about a third better than any other site and also what our model thinks he should be priced at.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona @ $67 First Try Scorer on Sportsbet. NAS was a mad man last week, scoring a try and being denied very, very close to the line twice. This will be a tight, torrid affair but $67 is a great price for him for the first try scorer market. A mistake bookmakers commonly make is to increase the FTS odds for players in games where the expected total score is low. Since the 2019 season, NAS has scored at least one try in 13/73 games. This makes him one of the best try scoring middle forwards in the NRL. You can see his historical strike converted to odds for FTS 2nd half as $18 in that time. It may be more difficult to achieve this against Penrith’s starting pack, but you can see why the $67 is a standout price here.
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