With some surprising results last weekend, we’ve got up to 5 teams realistically fighting out for top 4 spots & top 8 spots. Covid, injuries & interim coaches are creating some great NRL value plays for try scorer & player performance markets. Avid NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach players will know this is a crucial time of the year to gain ranks but it can also be a great time to enter Draftstars (paid daily fantasy sports) competitions with knowledge late team & player role changes a key part of winning the big cash prizes.
Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans! We’ve included some more anytime try scorer value plays this weekend that would be useful for same game multis. Please note that our model will incorrectly price rookies so players like Volkman, Turner & Mam aren’t actually great value but will be highlighted as some of the best value plays by our model for Round 15.
Raiders v Knights
Sunday 19th June 2pm
Try Scorer NRL Value Plays
Anthony Milford ATS @ $7.25 on Neds
Hudson Young ATS @ $4.60 on Neds
Jacob Saifiti FTS @ $85 on Topsport
Corey Horsburgh & Ryan Sutton FTS2H @ $101 on TAB
Anthony Milford is priced at $5.30 by our model and isn’t higher than $6 on other sites. He’s been OK without being great for the Knights but the $7.25 definitely seems like good value for a player that can be lethal when he’s at his best.
Our model has priced Hudson Young at $3.70 and he’s looked like a try scoring threat in most games in 2022. The $4.60 on Neds seems like a great price for a player playing on Jack Wighton’s side up against a frail Newcastle Knights defence.
Horsburgh looked in great form last round and actually scored a try. To be able to get $101 again for him to score the first try in the 2nd half is great value considering the form of the Raiders pack up against a weaker Knights bench. In saying that, Jacob Saifiti has been one of the Knights’ best in 2022. Any time his odds creep over $81 and the Knights aren’t playing the Storm or Panthers we generally like the value on offer.
NRL Draftstars
Joseph Tapine has arguably been the most improved forward in 2022. His numbers have been through the roof and it shows with him being in the top 2 of our projected scores & ceiling range. With Wighton missing this game due to covid and Josh Papali’i being managed during the Origin period, we’ll have to endorse him as a solid pick to start off your DFS team.
Of the value options, Zac Woolford at $10,000 seems great value considering his recent form. Same goes for the Raiders outside backs around $10-11,000.
NRL Player Performance Markets
Will be updated on game day but we’ve updated the player performance tool with data up to Round 14, 2022.
Josh Addo-Carr delivered the goods for us last round by scoring the first try when we tipped him at $15. Matt Burton has specific plays designed for Addo-Carr which have resulted in 5 tries for The Foxx in the last 2 games. With Daniel Tupou potentially playing for Tonga and NSW coming off a Game 1 loss, The Foxx will want to put on a show for the NSW selectors as the Bulldogs look to make it 2 wins in a row going into the Rep weekend.
Bulldogs v Wests Tigers
Sunday 19th June 4.05pm
Try Scorer NRL Value Plays
Josh Addo-Carr ATS @ $1.98 on Neds
Jackson Hastings & Tevita Pangai Junior FTS/LTS @ $51 on TAB
Paul Vaughan FTS @ $67 on TAB/Neds
Josh Jackson FTS @ $67 on Bet365
Corey Allan FTS & $17 on Pointsbet, ATS @ $3.40 on Sportsbet
Josh Jackson paying $67 to score the first try in this game playing on an edge is double our model’s predicted odds for him. Up against a Tigers team coming off a poor display last week and now also missing Luciano Leilua, we think this is great value. Paul Vaughan may be playing in the middle but as one of the best try scoring middle forwards in the NRL, we think this is good value up against the Tigers.
Josh Addo-Carr delivered the goods for us last round by scoring the first try when we tipped him at $15. Matt Burton has specific plays designed for Addo-Carr which have resulted in 5 tries for The Foxx in the last 2 games. With Daniel Tupou potentially playing for Tonga and NSW coming off a Game 1 loss, The Foxx will want to put on a show for the NSW selectors as the Bulldogs look to make it 2 wins in a row going into the Rep weekend.
We were on Hastings & TPJ last round at $81-101 but against far weaker opponents this round, we still think the price on offer on TAB is good value. Hastings was inches away from scoring the first try at $101 odds whereas TPJ looked threatening multiple times also in the Bulldogs’ surprising win against the Eels.
Jacob Kiraz was in great form for the Bulldogs in their shock win against the Eels on Monday. Corey Allan actually played on the wing outside him and you’d think this would continue against the Tigers this Sunday. Therefore we think Allan is great value to score the first try & in anytime try scorer markets. There is also late mail that Doueihi will likely come on for one of the centres, so we love the Allan v Kepaoa try scorer matchup with Allan paying $2.98 on Topsport.
The Foxx gets up @ $15 first try scorer & $2.55 anytime try scorer early in the game 🔥🔥#NRL #rugbyleague #NRLBulldogsEels #sportsbet #sports pic.twitter.com/xGGEkJnE8B
— Wicky (@wickyai) June 13, 2022
NRL Draftstars
It’s hard not to be biased by the Dogs’ performance against the Eels last Monday. They were electric. If you think they can continue their momentum, Burton & Addo-Carr have to be the first two players picked in your side.
Jacob Kiraz looked like the type of player that would be talked about for an Origin spot if he was playing for a top 4 team. He was on fire last Monday. He’s priced at less than $10,000 and we think that makes him a standout pick after his 72 last week.
With the Tigers struggling for form, we think Twal & Ofahengaue are their two best big minute forwards and worth selecting in your side. With not much to separate the two, we’d go with Twal coming off the bench as they generally tend to be less popular than starting forwards.
NRL Player Performance Markets
Will be updated on game day but we’ve updated the player performance tool with data up to Round 14, 2022.
Dragons v Rabbitohs
Thursday 16 June 7.50pm
Try Scorer NRL Value Plays
Alex Johnston First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $8 on Sportsbet
Ben Hunt Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $6.50 on Sportsbet
Alex Johnston doesn’t need much justification as a good pick to score tries on the end of a lethal Rabbitohs’ left edge backline. However, this week our model has him priced at less than $6 in the matchup against the Dragons. So the $8 on offer for him to score the first try is clearly good value for Johnston who has scored in 9/13 games this season & is the leading try scorer in 2022 with 14 tries.
It may surprise some fans but the Dragons are actually in 10th position, on the same points as the Roosters who are clinging on to 8th spot. Ben Hunt was leading the Dally M leaderboard when voting went behind closed doors so it’s no surprise we agree with our model and think the $6.50 on offer is a great price.
NRL Draftstars
Notes TBC on game day for the $15,000 DFS contest. Check out our NRL Draftstars Stats Bible with player projections, form, value ratings & ceiling range.
Update – Ben Hunt is our pick of the “Big 3” in this contest, Origin Stats Cook, Murray & Hunt. We think the Dragons will do well in this game and Hunt is usually at the heart of their attacking plays. If you think Souths could win easily, there’s always the chance that Cook & Murray’s minutes are managed during a tough Origin period. Although Hunt’s projections is noticeably less than the other two, his form & ceiling range (average of his 3 highest DFS scores in 2022) suggest he should be a strong pick and could even be a POD as Souths players are generally more favoured with fans.
Mark Nicholls & Siliva Havili at $9k and $11,060 are our two best value picks for this contest. Nicholls has a 2 in his last 3 games which has held his price down at $9k but should get you a score in in the 30-35 range whereas Havili has been consistently knocking out 30+ scores with the ability to go big. Especially if Cook or Murray are rested, Havili will get more minutes and you can see with the 71 from 2 weeks ago and his ceiling range of 50+ that he can far out-perform his $11,060 price tag.
Zac Lomax is our fade option for tonight’s contest. He’s been in good DFS form but is up against Campbell Graham and we don’t think he’ll have the attacking opportunities he has in recent weeks. Graham & Johnston are on Souths’ left edge and Suli has been in impressive form and is up against Milne & Paulo which we much prefer as a matchup.
NRL Player Performance Markets
Will be updated on game day but we’ve updated the player performance tool with data up to Round 14, 2022.
Update – Ben Hunt over 34.5 PP on Sportsbet at $1.88. He’s only gone noticeably below this mark once in 8 games, which was when the Storm beat them convincingly. This game is 10th up against 7th on the ladder and we think it’s close to 50/50 given Latrell is still missing and both teams match up reasonably well. As mentioned above, he was leading the Dally Ms when the count went behind closed doors and we think he can continue his form leading into Game 2 of State of Origin.
Sea Eagles v Cowboys
Friday 17th June 6pm
Try Scorer NRL Value Plays
Haumole Olakau’atu ATS @ $3.50 on Neds
Chad Townsend FTS/LTS @ $51 on TAB
Martin Taupau/Sean Keppie FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $101 on TAB
Olakatu’atu has been in career-best form in 2022 and has been rampant on the right edge for the Sea Eagles. With Cherry-Evans returning and up against a new left edge back rower with Gilbert & Luki both missing for the Cowboys, we think it’s a really good matchup for him. His career strike rate converted to betting odds would be $2.86 so we really like the $3.50 on offer on Neds.
Chad Townsend has been in great form in 2022 but this hasn’t directly related to try scoring. Manly have had two good wins against weaker opposition but we think the Cowboys will win comfortably against Manly and love the $51 on offer for Townsend for FTS & LTS markets. As a point of reference, our model has him priced at $40.
Taupau & Keppie have been in good form off the bench and even though they’re up against a red hot Cowboys team, we think the $101 on TAB for them to score the first try in the second half is a great price. If the price goes down to $81 or below, it’s no longer a great value play.
NRL Draftstars
Jake Trbojevic is our value pick for this game. He’s 8/10 in our value ratings and even though he’s been quiet recently, he’ll be up for a huge game against the Cowboys just before the Origin 2 teams are selected. Haumole Olakau’atu has the highest ceiling range (average of a player’s 3 highest DFS scores in 2022) in this contest by far. This is really impressive considering the Cowboys are in the top 4 and have been excellent on both sides of the ball in 2022. What makes his case even stronger is that he’ll be running up against Lemuelu on the Cowboys’ left edge as Gilbert & Luki are missing.
If you’re going to pick Trbojevic & Olakau’atu, you’ll need some more affordable value players to round out your team. Dylan Walker is a cheap pick at $11,110 who can be picked up in the HH position and relied upon to score you a consistent 30-40 points. Neame, Hess & Taunoa-Brown are all priced at $10,060 or less and could be the perfect last pick to get your team under the salary cap.
NRL Player Performance Markets
Will be updated on game day but we’ve updated the player performance tool with data up to Round 14, 2022.
Storm v Broncos
Friday 17th June 7.55pm
Try Scorer NRL Value Plays
Marion Seve FTS @ $15 on Neds
Kotoni Staggs FTS @ $34 on TAB
Ezra Mam FTS/LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Felise Kaufusi @ $34 on Bet365
Jahrome Hughes @ $3.50 on Neds
The Storm right side attack will be running at Ezra Mam & Brenko Lee on the Broncos left. This is a key part of our strategy to find value in the try scorer markets for this contest. The Broncos are also missing Reynolds & Farnworth and have Staggs & Haas playing with shoulder injuries whereas the Storm are almost full-strength aside from Ryan Papenhuyzen.
Our model loves the price for Kaufusi, Seve, Mam & Staggs FTS/LTS as well as Hughes ATS. From an eye test perspective, we agree with the Storm options and the 2 Broncos players Staggs & Mam have looked electric in 2022 so far.
NRL Draftstars
Brandon Smith & Billy Walters are the two players shown as 10/10 value in this contest and we can’t disagree. Walters has Turpin on the bench and could score around 30 points in 40 minutes depending on what Kevvie Walters does with his rotation. Brandon Smith has been well down on his 2021 numbers but we think he’s a good pick during the Origin period with Grant also nursing a groin injury.
6 of the top 7 players in this DFS contest are either going through an Origin series and/or nursing minor niggles. For that reason, we think Jahrome Hughes is a standout pick in this contest. The Storm are expected to dominate an understrength Broncos outfit and we think he’ll have his hands on a lot of the attacking plays the Storm have planned for Friday night.
NRL Player Performance Markets
Will be updated on game day but we’ve updated the player performance tool with data up to Round 14, 2022.
In this week’s NRL “Your Edge” article we look at the Bulldogs’ resurgence, what the Tigers need to do & whether The Foxx returns to the NSW side. Check it out here.
Sharks v Titans
Saturday 18th June 3pm
Try Scorer NRL Value Plays
Ronaldo Mulitalo FTS @ $7.5 on Sportsbet/Neds
Greg Marzhew @ $2.65 on Neds
Beau Fermor @ $34 FTS/LTS on Bet365 ($38 on Topsport 18/6)
Tino Fa’asuamaleuai @ $9 ATS on Sportsbet
Mo Fotuaika @ $151 FTS2h/$21 ATS on TAB
Captain Tino scored 2 tries for the Titans in their loss last week. He’s officially the 2nd best try scoring middle forward in the NRL as you can see in our graphic below. If you converted his career strike rate for scoring at least one try in a game to betting odds it would be $4.77. We think the $9 on offer on Sportsbet is great value considering the Titans’ backline isn’t exactly on fire and their middle forwards have scored quite a few tries this year – especially Tino & Jarrod Wallace.
Marzhew & Mulitalo are better odds than our model suggests they should be, however it’s Fermor at $38 on Topsport (18/6) that stands out now as a value play. He’s been in great form in 2022 and playing next to the ever improving Toby Sexton we think there’s real value in the $38 on offer for him to go over first.
Mo Fotuaika isn’t a noted try scorer but he’s a strong ball runner vying for an Origin spot and we love the $21 on offer for him to score a try anytime. He’s currently named off the bench so the $151 to score the first try in the 2nd half also stands out as a value play.
NRL Draftstars
If you think the Sharks can put a score on the current wooden spooners, then the ‘ceiling range’ numbers will be important to observe. Ceiling range is the average of each player’s 3 highest scores in 2022. Hynes & Talakai are must-haves if you believe in the Sharks’ attack in this one.
The other two players that standout are Greg Marzhew & Cam McInnes. Marzhew has rattled off a 70 & 88 in his last 3 games and McInnes has been consistently impressive. We also think Wade Graham is a good pick at $10,690 as he gets more and more minutes on his return from injury.
NRL Player Performance Markets
Will be updated on game day but we’ve updated the player performance tool with data up to Round 14, 2022.
Warriors v Panthers
Saturday 18th June 530pm
Try Scorer NRL Value Plays
Adam Pompey FTS/LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Jack Murchie @ $81 on Bet365
Wayde Egan @ $81 on Bet365
Josh Curran @ $101 on Bet365
Aaron Pene FTS2H $201/$101 LTS Team on TAB (Avoid – he’s not playing)
The Warriors have looked atrocious in recent weeks and have a growing casualty ward whereas the Panthers are full-strength. We don’t think there is a high likelihood of the Warriors competing in this game but we do think the price for some of the Warriors players to score the First try is noticeably higher than it should be.
Murchie, Egan & Pompey have looked like some of the Warriors’ better players in recent weeks and are noticeably higher odds on these sites than others. Curran we believe will play Edge so the $101 on offer is actually good value as he’s priced as a middle player.
We like Aaron Pene’s hard running style of footy and think the $201 to score the first try of the 2nd half or $101 to score the Warriors last try is a great play considering they may only score one try in the 2nd half.
NRL Draftstars
Similar to the last contest, we start off with looking at ceiling ranges. No surprises here with Nathan Cleary being the clear standout. With most of their stars backing up last weekend, we think the Penrith Origin forwards’ minutes might be managed here. We’d definitely recommend staying away from Liam Martin even though he seems a good value pick.
Scott Sorenson & Izack Tago are two players we think are good value. Sorenson will likely pick up any extra minutes from Yeo or Martin being given a rest. Whereas Tago is at an affordable price-tag but offers the up-side of a 67 ceiling range.
NRL Player Performance Markets
Will be updated on game day but we’ve updated the player performance tool with data up to Round 14, 2022.
Eels v Roosters
Saturday 18th June 7.35pm
Try Scorer NRL Value Plays
James Tedesco @ $2.90 on Neds
Sam Walker @ $6.50 on Sportsbet
Ryan Matterson @ $6.20 on Neds
Nathan Brown FTS2H @$101/LTS Team @ $67 on TAB (Scratch this – he’s been dropped)
Sam Walker has three ‘green lights’ on our tool which is quite rare. He’s significantly higher odds than our model & his career strike rate suggests he should be as well being noticeably higher odds on Sportsbet than other sites. Clearly our play of the game.
James Tedesco has been in great form over the last couple of months and the $2.90 for him to score a try is noticeably higher odds than our model thinks he should be as well as his career strike rate.
Ryan Matterison is $4.50 or less on most other sites & his been in impressive form over the last couple of months. He had an OK introduction to Origin and will want to put in a big performance to lock up his spot for Game 2 with teams to be confirmed this Sunday.
NRL Draftstars
Drew Hutchison & Sitili Topouniua are rated 10/10 value when we compared their projected scores to their price-tag. We can’t help but endorse this. Hutchison was priced as a bench dummy half but will take over Keary’s starting halves spot due to his ongoing concussion symptoms.
Reed Mahoney has had a consistent DFS scoring season in 2022 without the explosive scores of last season. After a disappointing loss to the Bulldogs last week, we think this is Mahoney’s week. With both teams close to each other on the ladder, we think he’ll get through a ton of work and would to stamp his authority on the game. Lock him in to your team at $18,000.
NRL Player Performance Markets
Will be updated on game day but we’ve updated the player performance tool with data up to Round 14, 2022.
In this week’s NRL “Your Edge” article we look at the Bulldogs’ resurgence, what the Tigers need to do & whether The Foxx returns to the NSW side. Check it out here.
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