NRL Round 14 Punting Preview

NRL Round 14 Punting Preview

After a heart stopping Game 1 of the 2022 State of Origin series, we’re back to a full round of NRL action this Friday. After such an intense game, most players will either be rested or managed through this weekend. This creates some great NRL value plays for try scorer & player performance markets. Avid NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach players will know this is a crucial time of the year to gain ranks but it can also be a great time to enter Draftstars (paid daily fantasy sports) competitions with knowledge late team & player role changes a key part of winning the big cash prizes.

Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!

Bulldogs v Eels

Monday 13th June, 4pm

Try Scorer NRL Value Plays

Josh Addo-Carr $2.55 ATS (Neds) & $15 FTS/LTS (365)

Josh Jackson FTS $101/ATS $16 on TAB

Paul Vaughan FTS $101 & ATS $16 on TAB

Tevita Pangai Junior First Try Scorer 2nd Half @ $81 on TAB

Eels Middle Forwards FTS/FTS2H – Pending Final Teams on TAB

Although the Bulldogs have been in poor form in 2022, Josh Addo-Carr has done his job for his new club. He’s in great form and as we saw last round, their other star recruit, Matt Burton & him have struck up some good chemistry. We love the value for him to score a try at any point in the match and also FTS/LTS.

Jackson is priced as a middle playing on the edge again & Vaughan is one of the best try scoring middle forwards in the comp.

Pangai Junior at $81 to score the first try in the 2nd half is a crazy price for someone who can be one of the most dynamic forwards in the comp. He hasn’t been in great form for his new club and is returning from injury but we think the price is just too good to ignore here on TAB.

Depending on which of the Eels forwards are named in final team lists and who starts & us on the bench, TAB have some really attractive FTS or FTS2H odds. Follow our Twitter in the hour before the game for our final value plays.

If Dylan Brown & 1-2 of the Origin forwards for the Eels are ruled out, the over 45.5 on Sportsbet becomes an excellent value play. If the teams go out as expected, it’s a close one however we’re willing to back Burton in and still say the overs is a good bet.

NRL Draftstars

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

NRL Draftstars has a $10,000 prize pool for the standalone DFS contest between the Bulldogs & the Eels on the Monday.

The Bulldogs lost to a Panthers team missing their Origin stars by 12 points last weekend. On the surface, this doesn’t look great. However, Matt Burton & Josh-Addo Carr were in excellent form and they’ve got Tevita Pangai Junior back from injury. Pending final team lists, if Dylan Brown & 1-2 of Parramatta’s Origin stars are rested, there would definitely be a case to pick a team with Addo-Carr, Burton, Averillo in a contrarian/POD style team.

However, if the teams are as expected we think a team similar to the one below could be the way to go. Even if all 3 of Parramatta’s Origin forwards do back up, there’s always the chance they are given less minutes. The Bulldogs’ pack is understrength with Vaughan, Jackson & Pangai Junior their only ‘big name’ forwards. So we think Isaiah Papali’i is probably the best premium pick in this contest.

If Dylan Brown is ruled out, Mitchell Moses becomes a must-have. He’ll likely get even more kick metres than usual and play making should pretty much go exclusively go through him and Clint Gutherson.

Maika Sivo makes his return from injury and priced at $9,000. If you think he can hit the ground running then he’s great value if he can hit the 36 points we’ve projected him for. Bailey Simonsson is priced at $11,070 but has scored 52 & 84 DFS points in his 2 of his last 3 outings after a slow start earlier in the season after switching clubs.

NRL Draftstars Example Team
NRL Draftstars Example Team

Player Performance Markets

NRL Player Performance Markets
NRL Player Performance Tool

As you can see in the graphic above, Matt Burton’s form has really taken off in the last 5 weeks. His player performance (PP) line is set at 45.5 on Sportsbet. From rounds 1 to 7, he didn’t go over that mark once. In the last 5 games, he’s scored a try in 3 games and gone over that mark every game. Which Matt Burton do you think we’ll see against the Bulldogs?

If Dylan Brown & 1-2 of the Origin forwards for the Eels are ruled out, the over 45.5 on Sportsbet becomes an excellent value play. If the teams go out as expected, it’s a close one however we’re willing to back Burton in and still say the overs is a good bet.

As always though you can check out every player’s PP numbers yourself on our free resource here.

Cowboys v Dragons

Friday 10th June, 7.55PM

Try Scorer NRL Value Plays

Moses Suli First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $41 on TAB

Talatau Amone First Try Scorer @ $51 on TAB

Jaydn Sua @ $11 Anytime Try Scorer

NRL Value Plays
NRL Value Plays

With North Queensland definitely missing Nanai & Cotter after their efforts in Game 1 of State of Origin and potentially missing Holmes if he’s rested last minute, this game promises to be much closer than the 12.5 handicap suggests. Look out for late changes, which are finalised on NRL.com an hour before kick-off for each NRL game.

Suli is a strong ball runner in good form and we think the $41 is a great price for someone who is priced at $34 or less on every other site and our model. We don’t love his $6 to score a try at any time in the game but the $41 for him to score the first or last try is a great price.

Talatau Amone has started to show signs of his full potential in recent weeks with some continuity being given a shot at NRL level. With every other site and our model pricing him at $44 or less, we think the $51 is a really good price for someone with a strong running game against a weakened Cowboys team.

Jaydn Sua is a great pick at $11 to score a try at any time on TAB. He’ll likely start in the 2nd row for Tariq Sims who started for the Blues in a draining encounter in Game 1 of State of Origin.

Even though we think the value is with the Dragons in the try scorer markets for this contest, the best way to bet on them in our opinion is to look at the first/last team try scorer markets. You can get Suli, Amone & Sua for $16, $23 & $34 respectively. This can be especially attractive if you respect the Cowboys’ defensive record this season and think there’s a reasonable chance the Dragons may only score one try. This would mean both bets (FTS team & LTS team win) if one of these three score the Dragons’ only try.

Update 10 June: With Val Holmes most likely playing, The Hammer would move to wing (Elliott out).
ATS & FTS odds are pretty much already at winger prices but he’s around $2.60 H2H v Suli on Neds & TAB!

Sims has officially been ruled out, McGuire named in his spot at the moment but hoping Su’a gets the nod in final team lists!

Update After Final Teams: 

McGuire FTS $81 on Neds, starting 2nd row.

Jaydn Su’A FTS 2nd Half @ $81 on TAB, LTS Team @ $34 on TAB. Based on the assumption he moves to the edge and McGuire shifts to the middle, we think it’s a great value play.

NRL Draftstars

With the Cowboys missing Nanai & Cotter, this game could be closer than most think. Which should make tonight’s $15,000 NRL Draftstars contest much more interesting!

Our NRL Draftstars Stats Bible includes projected scores for each player as well as their recent scores & ceiling range (average of the player’s 3 highest DFS scores in 2022).

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

With Nanai & Cotter out for the Cowboys, Jason Taumalolo & Reece Robson will need to stand up for the Cowboys forward pack. We think they’re great value in tonight’s contest & also are in the top 4 for ceiling range so picking them to start building your team would be a good idea.

Heilum Luki is an explosive edge back rower and at $14,290 we think he’s almost a must have. Playing off the bench predominantly in 2022 due to the form of Gilbert & Nanai, Luki has only had a few chances to start as he usually plays around 50 minutes. But when he has been on the field, he’s been a standout. Even with limited minutes, his ceiling range of 59 shows he can go big on his day.

Most people think the Cowboys will win convincingly tonight and Valentine Holmes is playing his 150th NRL game after starring in Queensland’s gutsy win on Wednesday. If you agree with us and think the Dragons could compete with a Cowboys team missing Nanai, Cotter & Feldt then fading/leaving out Holmes could be an interesting option to differentiate your team. There’s also the possibility he gets rested after 60-70 minutes if the Cowboys are winning convincingly.

Titans v Rabbitohs

Saturday 11th June, 3pm

Try Scorer NRL Value Plays

Jai Arrow First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $67 & Anytime Try Scorer @ $11 on TAB

Thomas Burgess FTS @ $67 on Neds

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison

Jai Arrow is paying $67 & $11 for FTS & ATS respectively and he’s playing on the edge with no back-rower on the bench for Souths. This is by far the best value play in the first game on Super Saturday.

Tom Burgess is playing his 150th game and is priced less than $60 on every other site and by our model to score the first try. Against a weak Titans defence, we think he’s good value to get over in his milestone game at $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes.

NRL Draftstars

NRL Draftstars
NRL Draftstars

This NRL Draftstars contest will be a tricky one as the two best players are backing up after a big effort in the first State of Origin game. Look out for final teams to see if Cook, Murray & Tino are definitely playing. Regardless, both packs have some good value options including Siliva Havili @ $10,200 & Sam McIntyre @ $10,080. Kodi Nikorima has officially taken the Rabbitohs’ fullback spot until Latrell Mitchell returns and should be a solid pick-up at $9,000.

Roosters v Storm

Saturday 11th June, 5.30pm

Try Scorer NRL Value Plays

Sam Walker FTS @ $46 on Sportsbet

Connor Watson Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $16 on TAB

Nelson Asofa-Solomona ATS @ $9 on Neds

Update 10/6: Marion Seve takes Coates’ spot on the wing and is currently $4.1 to score a try at any time and $21 to score the first try on Neds.

Pointsbet, Sportsbet & Topsport also have his odds around $19 which is a great price. Note the bookmakers will reduce his odds significantly to around $10, at which point this is no longer a value play.
Sam Walker’s odds have been priced at $34 or less by our model and most other sites. If you can find the $46 on offer on Sportsbet again, we think it’s a great value play against an understrength Melbourne outfit.
Connor Watson is the standout play in this contest. His odds were $101 to score the first try & $16 to score any time from Tuesday. As he’s benched, we were waiting to tip FTS 2nd Half & LTS, however TAB had released them at shorter odds. The ATS play at $16 will be the best way to play this one for now. He’s always looking out for a try and should get more minutes at lock with JWH & Radley out and Collins a chance of being rested.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona (NAS) has been in impressive form in 2022 and his career try scoring stats are almost as impressive as Josh Papalii’s. Against a Roosters pack missing a few of their regular middle forwards, look for NAS to step up and hopefully barge over for a try in what is a crucial contest for both teams.

NRL Stats

NRL Draftstars

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

In what will be a recurring theme for most games over the Origin period, this NRL DFS contest will largely depend on whether the Origin stars back up. Make sure you check final team lists an hour before kick-off. Cam Munster is coming off a Player of the Match performance and it’ll be hard not to select him even though he is the most expensive player in this contest.

With JWH & Radley already missing and Collins to either be rested or likely play less minutes, we think Nat Butcher & Connor Watson are the two best value picks in this contest. Both have been in great form and have the ability to big, Butcher with his workrate & Watson with his ability to bust tackles and break the line.

Drew Hutchison has been given more minutes as starting hooker and at $9,000 we think he’s a good pickup for a Roosters team that will need Watson to play more minutes in the middle. This likely allows Hutchison to get more of an opportunity to wrack up 35+ DFS points.

Broncos v Raiders

Saturday 11th June, 7.35PM

Try Scorer NRL Value Plays

Adam Elliott FTS @ $81 on TAB

Joseph Tapine Last Try Scorer (LTS) @ $67 on TAB

The above Tweet was from last Sunday. He’s now priced at $81 to score the first try, even though he literally did it a week ago. Watching him closely in recent weeks, he’s been in really impressive form with his strong hit-ups. This was why we were keen on him last week at $67 and why we’re even more keen on him this week at $81 to score the first try. He’s also good value at $13 to score a try at any time on TAB.

Joseph Tapine has been in career-best form in 2022 and, as he’s been moved from $67 to 51 to score the first try, we’re now tipping him at $67 to score the last try. $51 is still OK value for him but we love the $67 price.

The Broncos’ pack will either be missing Haas or Carrigan or they’ll be playing after both putting in big shifts for their Origin sides. With Capewell, Cobbo & Staggs definitely missing this Broncos team is much weaker than their ladder position would suggest. We think it’s a great time to hop on Tapine & Elliott at those odds. If Josh Papalii plays (and he should, given he only played 22 mins in Origin 1) we think he’s a decent any time try scorer play at $8.50 on Sportsbet also.

NRL Draftstars

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

As we mentioned in our try scorer analysis above, the Broncos’ pack is either going to be missing Haas & Carrigan or they’ll be playing after a brutal Origin game. We think the advantage in this game is with the Raiders, especially given Cobbo, Staggs & Capewell are already missing. Papalii only played 22 minutes in Origin and Wighton will be eager to get a win on the board after being the best player for NSW in their loss on Wednesday.

Woolford has been in great form since his NRL debut and we think him & Robati are the best value players in this game. Woolford has been given minutes over Starling and Robati has taken Capewell’s edge spot and likely plays close to 80 minutes.

Although Tom Flegler is priced over $15k, we think he’s the standout pick in the Broncos pack. Haas is carrying a shoulder problem and will either be rested or managed during the game. Flegler stands to be the big winner out of this and we think he could be the highest scoring forward for the Broncos and nudge the 50 point mark.

Wests Tigers v Sea Eagles

Sunday 12th June, 2pm

Try Scorer NRL Value Plays

Jackson Hastings ATS @ $13 or FTS @ $81 on TAB

Taupau/Keppie/Ofahengaue on TAB

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Jackson Hastings has been in excellent form for the Tigers in 2022 and has talked about his relationship with recently departed coach Madge Maguire in great detail. He’ll be fired up and ready to carry the Tigers on his back. What further helps this matchup is that Manly will be without Cherry-Evans due to an injury from Game 1 of State of Origin & obviously Tom Trbojevic is gone for the season.

Both the first & anytime try scorer odds are great value whichever way you look at it – significantly higher than our model’s predicted odds & around 1.5x every other bookmaker.

The middle forwards in this game are an extremely good price. Both teams lack polish in attack and it’s fair to say their forward packs are their strengths. Look out for our Tweet after final team lists to see which players are starting and are a good bet at $101 to score the first try or $67 to score their team’s first try. Whoever is benched will likely be around $81-101 to score the first try in the second half.

As we saw in the Dragons game, getting the right type of bet can make all the difference. We had Suli FTS/LTS team as he’s a back who plays 80 minutes. And we had Su’A LTS team as he was starting off the bench. He played the second half on the edge and did get the last try for the Dragons which made the $34 play a great one.

NRL Draftstars

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

With Manly missing DCE & Tom Trbojevic and the Tigers coming off the bye, this game could be much closer than most predict. Manly’s forward pack is close to full strength and with Jake Trbojevic playing 80 minutes consistently, there usually isn’t much value there. We think the Tigers’ backs including Hastings & Nofoaluma could be value in this contest given their high ceiling and our prediction that the Tigers will do well in this contest. Twal & Ofahengaue will play a key role for the Tigers’ forward pack and considering their high ceiling range as well, we think they are the standout picks in the forwards.

Knights v Panthers

Sunday 12th June, 4.05pm

Try Scorer NRL Value Plays

Mitchell Barnett FTS @ $101 on TAB

Jacob Saifiti FTS @ $101 on TAB

Matthew Eisenhuth FTS Team @ $67 on TAB

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Barnett & Saifiti have been in impressive form this season and we think the $101 is a great price even though it is against the table-topping Panthers. The Panthers are definitely resting Isaah Yeo and there’s always a chance 1-2 more Origin players are rested which could make them vulnerable.

Matthew Eisenhuth has been listed to start in Yeo’s lock role so we love the $67 for him to score the Panthers’ first try. Not a noted try scorer, it’s purely about the price here with Eisenhuth.

NRL Draftstars

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

Matt Eisenhuth is the standout value pick in this contest given he’s taken Isaah Yeo’s spot at lock. Look out for final teams an hour before kick-off with 1 or 2 more Panthers to potentially be rested. Even if they do play, we think Scott Sorenson is an excellent pick. He should be low owned as he’s starting on the bench and we think he can exceed his projected score of 38 which would be a great value pick at his price tag.

The Knights will need to win the forwards battle if they are to compete with the Panthers. With Daniel Saifiti still out, one or two out of Barnett, Jacob Saifiti & Klemmer would be a good way to complement Eisenhuth & Sorenson. We think Barnett is the way to go at $15,460.

Warriors v Sharks

Sunday 12th June, 6.15pm

Try Scorer NRL Value Plays

Chanel Harris-Tavita FTS $101 or ATS $13 on TAB

Jack Murchie FTS $67 on TAB
Teig Wilton FTS $29 on Sportsbet (Cancel – benched)

Wade Graham $41 FTS or $5.50 ATS

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Harris-Tevita seems to be priced similarly to Hastings in the earlier game on Sunday. Significantly higher on TAB than on other sites. Doesn’t need significant justification – he’s been in great form, the pricing seems off and it’s a great value play.

Murchie scored the first try of the second half @ $67 last weekend and he’s been priced the same again on TAB. Playing on the edge, he almost scored a double last weekend. Clear value play.

Wade Graham is great odds on TAB as he’s now starting in the 2nd row. Great opportunity to get on at this price and potentially even cashout for a guaranteed profit.

 

NRL Draftstars

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

With Josh Curran back, we think the Warriors forward pack is actually quite stacked and can’t strongly recommend anyone as a value play. The Sharks, however, are still missing Dale Finucane & Hamlin-Uele, so Cam McInnes stands out as a value play given he’s consistently been hitting 55+ DFS points. The Warriors have just lost their coach and if you think that won’t help their poor form, Hynes is almost a must have with his 100+ ceiling range.

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