It’s going to be a beautiful day in Brisbane on Sunday for the 2021 NRL Grand Final. Penrith are favourites going into the contest with most bookmakers having them at -3.5 and the total around 38 points. We’ve looked at the some of the best value players in the contest & who we would look to fade here. If you are new to rugby league or NRL DFS, we thought it would a good idea to break down some of the key factors to doing well in a large GPP contest.
Ownership
The NRL Grand Final Draftstars contest currently has a prize pool of $75,000 with almost 6000 expected entries. Needless to say, it’s going to be crucial to try to have a couple of players that can differentiate your team from the pack. In our Stat Bible, we show you the average ownership for each player in 2021. We think some of the best low average ownership % players are Blake Taaffe, Jaydn Su’A & Isaah Yeo.
Blake Taaffe seems like a clear standout. With an average ownership % of 17 in 2021 and 22 in the last 3 weeks, he will most likely be a point of difference for your team. At his $7,700 price tag, he doesn’t need to do much to be a good selection for your team. If he can get close to his projected score of 33, which his form of 31 shows that he can, then he would have done his job and allowed you to pick up the more expensive and higher ceiling players in the contest.
Correlation
Generally in rugby league, the backs within the same team’s scores would be correlated. Although it’s a very simple message, if you are entering one or two teams or are new to following rugby league or NRL DFS, a good place to start would be to think about who you think is likely to win the game or who you’ll be following in the game. If you agree or have faith in the Panthers to perform well, you could consider selecting a ‘Panthers stack’ with Penrith players in your WFB, CTR & HALF positions. In our NRL GF DFS Preview, we’ve suggested Nathan Cleary & Brian To’o are good value picks.
Someone that stands out here is Liam Martin, who has a relatively low form score (36) but is projected to score 45. Especially with Tevita Pangai-Junior leaving a hole in the forward pack, Martin could be a great pick to get some extra minutes or at least an improvement on his productivity in recent weeks.
Ceiling Range
As important it is to differentiate your line-up, ideally you would also have players in your team that have the capacity to score significantly above their projected score. The ‘ceiling range’ on the Stat Bible is the average of that player’s three highest scores in 2021. A couple of the standout picks are Viliame Kikau and Cam Murray, with a ceiling range of 84 and 79 respectively.
Kikau is reasonably priced at $11,220 however is likely to only play around 60 minutes on the edge and has had ongoing injury concerns. Murray is likely to be involved throughout the game as a key cog for the Rabbitohs, however is priced at $14,710 which could be a concern especially if you’ve decided to choose Nathan Cleary. Depending on the structure of the rest of your team, picking either of these two could give your line-up to a higher ceiling than many other players around this price range.
Form
There are two ways to look at recent form in a standalone contest with such a large prize pool. Firstly, the players who have been performing well over the last few weeks would be attractive options as they are clearly in good form and are unlikely to disappoint you. However, in larger prize pool contests as you would be trying to differentiate your line-ups, it’s crucial to find the players who have low or decreasing form scores that you think could bounce back on the biggest stage.
Someone that stands out here is Liam Martin, who has a relatively low form score (36) but is projected to score 45. Especially with Tevita Pangai-Junior leaving a hole in the forward pack, Martin could be a great pick to get some extra minutes or at least an improvement on his productivity in recent weeks.
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