Round 6 Value Plays (Saturday)

Round 6 Value Plays (Saturday)

Roosters v Eels in the prime time Saturday slot is the game we’ve all been waiting for since the season restarted. But first, we have a wooden spoon battle between the Titans and Dragons ahead of an intriguing contest between two middling sides in the Tigers and Cowboys.

Gold Coast Titans v St George-Illawarra Dragons @ Suncorp Stadium

First Try-Scorer: Phillip Sami – $12, Matt Dufty – $16, Mikaele Ravalawa – $11

Two of the worst teams in the NRL going head-to-head hardly inspires confidence of a tryfest, but somebody has to score. Don’t they?

Phillip Sami ($12 – Neds) is back on the wing for the Titans and shapes as a promosing chance on the left side. With Ash Taylor slowly coming into form, there has been the odd glimpse of good footy down that side of the field for the Titans. Given how poorly the Dragons have defended overall this season, Taylor will be eager to make a statement in this one. Sami would be one of the big beneficiaries of Taylor turning back the clock.

Fresh off one of ‘those’ Matt Dufty ($10 – Neds) games, the Dragons fullback is expected to be in everything again this week. With good attacking teams starting to get their fullbacks involved closer to the defensive line, Dufty’s speed and footwork really come into play. He broke ten tackles in a dominant performance in Round 5. With the Titans equally as poor in defence as the Dragons, Dufty will be out to do the same on Saturday.

He’s yet to really announce himself as a consistent try-scorer, but after scoring two tries in Round 5 and signing a contract extension during the week, Mikaele Ravalawa ($11 – Neds) is getting comfortable. The issue is usually the poor Dragons attack and the limited opportunities Ravalawa sees on the wing. However, only three teams have conceded more tries than the Gold Coast’s eight down the left edge. The big Fijian is a great shout this week.

Draftstars Suggested Plays: Matt Dufty ($9,750), Josh Kerr ($9,000), Tyrell Fuimaono ($8,900)

Matt Dufty chalked up a massive 75.7 Draftstars points last week, and while not expected to reach quite the same heights on Saturday, our predictive model projects him to score 44 points against the Titans. Dufty needs to start putting together good games over longer periods. We’ve seen him back one excellent performance up with a dud all too often. He won’t have many better opportunities to develop that consistency than going up against the Titans.

Whether the rumours of interest from the Warriors are true or not, Josh Kerr is playing for his next contract at the moment. He’s been scoring consistently with three of his last four games producing 30+ points. Our predictive model is tipping bigger things for Kerr this week, though. Up against a Titans pack that has shown a tendency to concede big metres through the middle, Kerr is projected to score 40 points. He’s a value play at $9,000.

Tyrell Fuimaono didn’t see nearly enough of the football last week. Opportunties to pile up the run metres and tackle breaks he’s capable of were few and far between given Dufty’s dominance on the right side. Expecting to see a more balanced approach to the Dragons attack on Saturday, Fuimaono is set to dwarf his 19.1 points last week with 45 in this one.

DFS Fade: Zac Lomax ($11,000)

Despite being shuffled around and on the edge of a poor attack, Zac Lomax has been a relatively consistent DFS performer in 2020 (42.3 three-game average). However, projected to score just 38 points at his $11,000 price tag, it might be best to look elsewhere in the centre position.

Wests Tigers v North Queensland Cowboys @ Campbelltown Stadium

First Try-Scorer: David Nofoaluma – $10, Kyle Feldt – $12, Connelly Lemuelu – $9

The Wests Tigers are really struggling for creativity in attack. Dropping Benji Marshall hasn’t helped in that department either. So, with creativity at a premium, we’re looking towards David Nofoaluma ($10 – Neds) – a man that can make something out of nothing. He’s the man the Tigers will look for if they run out of ideas. Based on last week, that might be quite often.

For the Cowboys, they have a veteran professional try-scorer in Kyle Feldt ($12 – Neds) on one side, and rookie 21-year-old Connelly Lemuleu ($14 – Neds) on the other. Matched up against an out of sorts Robert Jennings, Feldt is a surefire target for Jake Clifford and Scott Drinkwater at the end of sets. The two don’t compare. When it comes to Lemuleu, he’s running up against a Tigers right edge that has leaked 12 tries already this season.

Draftstars Suggested Plays: Adam Doueihi ($9,200), Mitchell Dunn ($8,470)

The expectation was for Adam Doueihi to “be asked to offer a lot more in attack in Marshall’s absence.” He finished up with a season-high 30 touches against the Raiders for 40 Draftstars points. Against an opposition that lends itself to the Tigers scoring a few more points, Doueihi is an excellent option at fullback for his $9,200.

Another that may benefit from a dodgy Wests right edge is Mitchell Dunn. He failed to make a mark last week, but our predictive model projects the big back rower to score 43 points on Saturday evening. He’s yet to make the most of his opportunities in 2020. His 47 running metres in 80 minutes last week isn’t close to what he’s capable of producing. With pressure surely building on his position in the side, expect Dunn to get his hands on the ball more often in this one.

DFS Fade: Scott Drinkwater ($9,940)

Scott Drinkwater managed an impressive 52.8 points in Round 2, but has been on a downward trend since with scores of 35, 29 and 21.1 points. The 32 points Drinkwater is projected to score is an improvement, but he’s still one to consider fading at $9,940.

Sydney Roosters v Parramatta Eels @ Bankwest Stadium

First Try-Scorer: Brett Morris – $11, Clint Gutherson – $18

Brett Morris ($11 – Neds) might be the most underrated winger in the NRL era. He’s scored 155 tries throughout his 257-game career and is coming off a double last week. The Roosters attack relies on effort plays and being in shape. Morris has made a career out of performing one-percenters. Playing on the end of a ridiculous Roosters attack that has scored 101 points in the last fortnight, Morris is going to see the ball.

Another that isn’t short in the effort department, Clint Gutherson ($18 – TopSport) will be sniffing around this week. He averages 40.5 touches per game as a fullback; considerably more than the 30.5 James Tedesco has averaged this season. Gutherson isn’t typically a traditional try-scorer, but as the strike weapons around him build and attract attention, the Eels fullback is seeing more opportunities open up for himself.

Draftstars Suggested Plays: James Tedesco ($15,080), Siosiua Taukeiaho ($10,000), Dylan Brown ($11,880)

Round 3: 90.4
Round 5: 111.1

James Tedesco has been on fire and it’s translated into monster Draftstars scores. Both scores came against sub-standard opposition so it’s no surprise to see our predictive model project him to score a much-lower 69 points against a tougher opponent this week. Still, there is still value in his $15,080 price. He’s the best player in rugby league right now and a consistent DFS performer with a ceiling higher than any other. Tedesco is a high-ownership player, but a must for lineups in this slate.

It feels like Siosiua Taukeiaho is winding up for a big score. He returned from injury in Round 4 to score 41.5 points before being limited to just 25 minutes and 23 points in Round 5. This week, our predictive model projects the big Tonga to score 42 points, which at $10,000, is an excellent value play. The Roosters will look to assert their dominance in the middle early against this chippy Eels outfit. Taukeiaho will be at the forefront.

If there is one sign of weakness in the Roosters, it’s when teams target Kyle Flanagan on the Roosters right side. Given the way Dylan Brown has started the season, it’s sure to be an avenue the Eels explore. Brown looks a lot more comfortable running the ball and using his footwork to throw defenders. He’s sure to spend a lot of time getting Shaun Lane one-on-one with Flanagan too. Expecting the Eels to be left-heavy this week, Brown is projected to score 50 points.

DFS Fade: Victor Radley ($14,740)

Victory Radley is the talk of the NRL at the moment. He’s returned from the season suspension in brilliant form to challenge, if not take, the title of best young lock in the game from Cameron Murray. However, our predictive model isn’t buying this week at his $14,740 price. Sure to be a high-ownership player again on Saturday, Radley is a good contrarian consideration.

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