Round 5 Value Plays (Sunday & Monday)

Round 5 Value Plays (Sunday & Monday)

The defending premiers headline a day of footy featuring players and clubs under pressure to perform this week.

Little is expected of the Bulldogs against the Roosters while the Dragons and Sharks pin two of the most talked-about halves in the NRL head-to-head. Both sides are desperate while Ben Hunt and Shaun Johnson are capable of producing anything and everything in the final match of the round.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v Sydney Roosters @ Bankwest Stadium (Monday, 7pm)

First Try-Scorers: Daniel Tupou – $10, Joseph Manu – $15, Lachlan Lewis – $46

The Roosters dropped 59 points on the Broncos last week and are heavy favourites to get a few past the Bulldogs in this one.

Our predictive model likes Daniel Tupou. He’s an obvious choice, but it’s the $10 price (Neds) that presents value. The Roosters have scored 44% of their tries down their left edge and Tupou is sure to have cross-field kicks sent in his direction with the much smaller Nick Meaney opposite him.

While the Roosters have only scored four tries down the right side all season, the Bulldogs left side has been a fruitful avenue for opposing teams. Only the Cowboys have conceded more tries down the left edge than the Bulldogs’ six. That brings Joseph Manu ($15 – Neds) into play as an appealing try-scorer option.

As for a roughie, our model has highlighted Lachlan Lewis ($43 – BetEasy). Kieran Foran’s return has taken the pressure off Lewis who can now take more of a back seat and pick his moments. He ran the football six times for 65 metres last week and won’t be afraid to take on this resilient Roosters defensive line on Sunday.

Draftstars Suggested Plays: Jake Averillo ($7,000), Raymond Faitala-Mariner ($8,940), Siosiua Taukeiaho ($10,960)

Jake Averillo is yet to play the full 80 minutes in the centres, but this week looks his best bet. Kerrod Holland has been replaced on the bench by Christian Crichton. While Dean Pay has shown a tendency to crowbar bench players into a game when he doesn’t need to, it won’t be a surprise to see Averillo play his first full game if he gives a decent account of himself against this ruthless Roosters attack. It comes with an element of risk, but Averillo and his $7,000 has potential to be a profitable low-cost play.

Scoring a season-high 45.6 points in his first start of the season last week, our predictive model has projected Raymond Faitala-Mariner to back that up with another 45 points on Sunday. Faitala-Mariner is an excellent hole-runner and offloader when he gets his head and arms through the line. But he needs a quality half to deliver the pass. With Kieran Foran back in the lineup and floating down both sides of the field, Faitala-Mariner will have that quality half to produce in attack.

Siosiua Taukeiaho made a successful return from injury last week with 215 running metres against the Broncos. He finished up with 41.5 Draftstars points and our predictive model projects the big Tongan to push that out to 45 points in this one. Asked to do next to nothing defensively throughout the 59-0 rout, expect Taukeiaho to produce his usual output with the ball while making a few more tackles this week.

DFS Fade: Aiden Tolman ($15,380)

Aiden Tolman is a workhorse and has been a reliable DFS performer for years, but his best days are behind him. Meanwhile, Suasao Sue was brilliant in the one game he’s been given the opportunity to play big minutes. Splitting the minutes more evenly between his middle forwards is something Dean Pay needs to consider if he’s to have his Bulldogs side compete for the full 80 on Sunday. If Tolman plays roughly the 57 minutes he did last week, our predictive model projects him to score 51 points. At $15,380, the value lies elsewhere.

St George-Illawarra Dragons v Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks @ Campbelltown Stadium (Sunday, 4pm)

First Try-Scorers: Ben Hunt – $31, Briton Nikora – $21

If the Dragons are to get themselves out of this mess and avoid an 0-5 start to the season, Ben Hunt ($31 – BetEasy) needs to provide the inspiration. He’s the highest-paid player, and when in-form, their most influential. Our model has highlighted the battling half as a value option here. Despite the lazy analysis and calls for Hunt to “run the ball”, he’s averaging a career-high 95 running metres per game in 2020. There is a great chance he adds to that number while also crossing the line once or twice this week.

Shaun Johnson is another halfback under pressure. Remarkably, he was still talked about negatively following a win and three try assists last week. Nonetheless, he has a point to prove on Sunday and that bodes well for Briton Nikora ($21 – Neds). With Johnson getting down hill and skipping across the field, Nikora simply needs to run the right line at pace and his halfback will find him.

Draftstars Suggested Plays: Jack Williams ($8,700), Euan Aitken ($8,600), Tyrell Fuimaono ($8,700)

Jack Williams has been somewhat disappointing to start this season. Many expected big things from him when John Morris installed him as the first-choice lock following Paul Gallen’s retirement. However, he’s slowly increasing his production and our predictive model projects him to score a season-high 44 points this week. Riddled with errors, Williams presents as a value play at $8,700 if he can wipe the butter off his fingers.

There is an opportunity factor to both Euan Aitken and Tyrell Fuimaono as value plays in this one.

Aitken started the season in the reserves but has come off the bench in Rounds 3 and 4. Flung into the centres to start this week, our predictive model projects him to dwarf his 24.1-point average this season with 40 on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Fuimaono has looked like one of the Dragons’ best throughout their poor start to the season. Surprisingly dropped from the side last week, Fuimaono replaces Tariq Sims in the starting 13 here. He scored 71.7 points in his only other start this season through 177 running metres and seven tackle breaks. Expect another big performance from the low-cost backrower this week as he looks to cement his place in the side.

DFS Fade: Cameron McInnes ($19,910)

The Dragons captain can’t keep doing it all, can he?

Cameron McInnes has been the lone shining light in a dire Dragons side to score 80+ Draftstars points in both games since the season resumed. He needed to make 75 tackles to get there in Round 3 and ran an uncharacteristic amount (122 metres) in Round 4. Our predictive model still projects McInnes to score an impressive 67 points, but the value isn’t there at $19,910.

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on whatsapp
Share on email
Share on linkedin