Punter’s Preview – State Of Origin & Internationals

Punter’s Preview – State Of Origin & Internationals

Game 2 of the 2022 State of Origin series is setup perfectly after Queensland shocked most fans by beating NSW on their home turf. The Queensland forward pack outshone their NSW counterparts & Cam Munster was electric. It’s hard to think of a clearer Player of the Match winner in Origin in recent years. Freddy Fittler has responded with a host of changes to the NSW team which now includes 7 Penrith Panthers players. There are also a host of other games on this weekend including the Under 19s & Women’s State of Origin & 4 International games. You can check out all the fixtures and teams here. We’ve also listed some standout value plays for those games at the bottom of the article.

In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best value tips across try scorer, player of the match & player performance markets. Our general approach is to either find try scorer or player of the match picks that are incorrectly priced by one bookmaker or find you favourable odds according to our model or each player’s career’s stats. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value tips, read on!

Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!

State Of Origin Value Try Scorer Tips

Daly Cherry-Evans Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $6.75 on Sportsbet

Cameron Murray First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $34 on Neds

Lindsay Collins FTS Team @ $67 on TAB

Junior Paulo FTS 2nd Half @ $81 on TAB

Friday 24/6 Update: The above plays are all at the same price and we still love them.

Daly Cherry-Evans was a successful value play tip from Game 1. He was priced at $7.25 in Game 1 and is $6.75 in this game, but still clearly the best value try scorer play of this game. With so many threats in attack for QLD including Munster, Grant & Ponga, it’s understandable that NSW lost concentration when DCE dummied and strolled over early in the second half. We think it’s likely a second half try against a tiring NSW defence that gets the job done again for DCE. He’s the only player for FTS or ATS markets that has three ‘green lights’ as well, so we’re excited to see if our model is spot on again!

State of Origin Game 2 Preview
Free Wicky Odds Comparison Tool

Cam Murray was paying $34 or $41 in the couple of days before Game 1 on Neds. Obviously he’s predominantly played at lock throughout his career and even then his historical strike rate of scoring the first try in NRL games is incredible. He’s done it 7 times in 123 games. If you converted that to betting odds it would be $18. We’re getting $34 from Neds here and he’s actually playing on the edge. Heartbreakingly for us, he was benched an hour before Game 1. However, Brandy Alexander mentioned they did this as he was coming off only one NRL game after his injury. After some impressive form, including a try in Game 1, we expect him to start on the left edge as named. And this time, let’s hope he can get the job done early. He’s actually $16 just to score the first try for New South Wales. If you’re eligible for boosts on Neds/Ladbrokes, that may actually be a better way to play it rather than the $34 to score the first try of the match.

Lindsay Collins to score the first QLD Try @ $67 and Junior Paulo to score the first try in the 2nd half @ $81 are more based on the high odds than their impressive try scoring track record. Collins was immense in Game 1. And he also had 50 tackles with 0 misses in the Roosters’ loss against the Eels last weekend. We expect him to lift again for QLD with Cotter missing and think the $67 for him to score QLD’s first try is just significantly higher odds than it should be.

Junior Paulo crashed over for NSW in Game 1, however the try was taken away from him due to Cam Murray obstructing the defence. He’s been spared the axe but will most likely play off the bench as named. We think the $81 on offer is a great price for a dynamic ball runner who is obviously powerful enough to get over the line at Origin level.

State of Origin Game 2 Preview
Cam Murray NRL Historical Try Scoring Stats converted to betting odds

State Of Origin Player Of The Match Value Tips

Isaah Yeo @ $15 on Sportsbet

Cam Murray @ $34 on Sportsbet

Valentine Holmes @ $51 on Sportsbet

Brian To’o & Josh Papali’i @ $101 on Sportsbet

Friday 24/6 Update: Yeo is now into $13, Murray $26, Holmes $31. Still think they are good plays but obviously some of our value has been taken away. Holmes is $41 on TAB. Papali’i & To’o are still $101 and we still think they are great value.

Isaah Yeo was a popular Player of the Match tip before Origin 1. He was within a metre of scoring the match-equalling try and if he did score, that bet might have gotten up at $12. We now move to Game 2 where it’s clear that him and Cam Murray are New South Wales’ two most important forwards. QLD are closer in the betting markets at a neutral venue and an impressive win in Game 1. However, we think there’s clear value in the $15 for Yeo & $34 for Murray to be the Player of the Match in Game 2 given what we know about the forward pack rotation. They are also noticeably higher odds on Sportsbet than other bookmakers.

Holmes was excellent in Game 1. Starting at centre and then moving to the wing once Coates was injured, he did it all. Excellent in defence. Scored a classy try on the wing as well. If you think QLD can lock the series up in Perth, him and Josh Papali’i are great value at $51 & $101 as two of Queensland’s most influential players aside from Cam Munster.

We said in our Punter’s Preview for Game 1 that Brian To’o has a good chance of running over 200 metres. He ran for 207 metres with 8 tackle breaks. He’s on the outside of Luai, Murray & Burton on the lethal left edge for NSW. If he can repeat his 200+ metre performance and jag a try in a close NSW win, we think the $101 is a great price for someone who is as consistently excellent as To’o.

State Of Origin Value Player Performance Tips

Here’s our latest player performance (PP) tool to check our historical PP stats for all NRL players. Bear in mind that players will have different roles and minutes + goal kicking responsibilities etc in Origin before using the data to make a decision.

Jake Trbojevic Under 45.5 PP @ $1.83 on Sportsbet. As we’ve covered in our Your Edge article & our Draftstars $40,000 Preview. we’re not that high on Jake Trbojevic going into this game. Realistically, we think he’ll get around 35-40 minutes and given he’s unlikely to get any attacking stats, we think he’ll under up on around 30-35PP.

He’s got 1 try assist & 0 tries all season. He’ll be playing a more traditional Prop role with Yeo in the team and he’ll have around half the amount of minutes get his PP total. As you can see in the screenshot below of his numbers in 2022, all signs point to the under with Jake in Game 2.

NRL Player Performance
Jake Trbojevic Player Performance

Try Scorer Value Tips From International Games

Tui Kamikamica First Try Scorer or Last Try Scorer (FTS/LTS) @ $51 & Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $7 on Pointsbet

Viliame Kikau FTS @ $15 & ATS $2.75 on Neds (Edit – Kikau is $17 on Bet365 for FTS/LTS)

Izack Tago ATS @ $1.85 on TAB

Xavier Willison FTS @ $151 on Neds

Makahesi Makatoa FTS 2nd Half @ $201 on TAB

Friday 24/6 Update: Kamikamica is still $51 FTS on TAB & $6.50 ATS. Kikau is $15 FTS & $2.75 on Neds. Still recommend at this price.

Tago is $1.80 ATS on TAB, still recommend.

Makatoa is $41 ATS & $101 FTS Cook Islands – we think these are good odds even though he’s playing off the bench. The $201 FTS2H has been crunched in to $101. Willison $151 FTS on Neds is still available.

New Plays for Tonga v NZ: Moses Leota FTS 2nd Half @ $67 on TAB. Talatau Amone @ $67 FTS 2nd Half on TAB, FTS Team @ $26 & ATS @ $7.50

International Rugby League Preview
International Rugby League Preview – Note: Tago stats are only for 2022

The Fijian and Samoan teams are significantly stronger than their opponents, PNG & Cook Islands. Fiji are 10 point favourites and Samoa have moved from 24 to 32 point favourites in the betting markets as teams were finalised on Tuesday. We actually tipped Kamikamica to score the first try at $51 odds successfully just last weekend! Viliame Kikau scores tries at will in the NRL so it’s scary to think what he could do running up against a PNG outfit with only 3-4 NRL players, none of them being forwards. Izack Tago has been in excellent form in 2021 scoring in 7/15 games for the Panthers this season. He’ll be playing inside Taylan May and has Charlie Staines at fullback to complete the Penrith connection as well as Josh Schuster on his edge, so we think the $1.75 is great value for him to score a try anytime.

Xavier Willison is a highly rated Broncos young gun who has played a combined 183 minutes of footy across Q-Cup & NRL in 2022 and scored 3 tries in that time. He’s playing for the Cook Islands against a much stronger Samoa lineup but we love the $151 price tag for a dynamic young talent as a fun bet to follow early in the game!

Makatoa has been impressive for the Eels in 2022 off the bench. There is a decent chance that Cook Islands don’t score a try at all or score exactly one try given the difference in class between the two teams. If they do score we think Makatoa is a ridiculously good price at $201 to score the first try in the 2nd half and also the first/last try for his team which is at $101 on TAB.

NRL Draftstars Analysis

We’ll be doing an in-depth NRL Draftstars preview for beginners with value players, fade options & strategic advice for Game 2 of State of Origin. There’s a $40,000 prize pool in the main contest so if you’re an avid NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy, this is the time to give it a crack!

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