Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Game 3 of State of Origin 2024.

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Maroons v Blues

Wed 17/7, 8.05pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Payne Haas FTS @ $67 (Bet Right, 365, Neds) + LTS @ $71 on Bet Right

Cameron Murray FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365 + 1st/2nd/3rd try @ $19 on Neds

Tom Dearden FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365

Spencer Leniu FTS2H @ $46 on Sportsbet

Wicky’s Origin Preview – It’s honestly difficult to make sense of this series. The Blues’ held their own for most of Game 1 with only 12 men. They also put 34 points on the Maroons in the first half of Game 2. The Maroons have won 3/4 halves. And we sit at 1-1 going into a decider at Suncorp with the Blues’ side missing Latrell Mitchell.

We successfully tipped Payne Haas to score first at $51 only a few weeks ago. He’s scored twice since his return from injury and we love the $67 (or higher) for him to score first and last (separate tips). We know he’ll be on the field (barring injury) at the start and end of the game.

And if he doesn’t get the job done, we’ll back in Cam Murray. He’s scored the first and last tries roughly one in every 25 NRL games he’s played. Honestly, we can see a powerful run by one of these two and then a barge over try to the other! Aside from the $51 for first and last try (separate tips on 365), we love the $19 for him to score any of the first 3 tries on Neds.

Tom Dearden has scored the first try in NRL games one in every 13 games. And the last try? One in every 18 games. If you’re a Maroons fan and you skipped past the middle forwards we’ve tipped for the Blues – you can get on this pick knowing the stats back it up and we’re getting some juicy value here!

Last but not least, Spencer Leniu. We’ll never forget tipping him to score the first try in the 2nd half at $101 during Magic Round 2023. The price may be a lot shorter, but with how good he’s looked since his return, can you blame us?

He’s scored the first try in the 2nd half in 4 of his 87 NRL games. And remember he’s obviously started some of those games too – he’s roughly scored the first try in the 2nd half one in every 20 games! We love the $46s here.

Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!

Player of the Match (POTM)

Brian To’o @ $67 on Bet Right, 365 & TAB (NSW)

Jake Trbojevic @ $67 on Bet Right (NSW)

Dane Gagai @ $61 on Sportsbet (QLD)

Jeremiah Nanai @ $36 on Sportsbet (QLD)

POTM Reasoning – We’ve tried to leave 4 value options so you can take your pick depending on who you think will win!

For those looking for a more ‘realistic’ pick we think it’s between Walsh/DCE and Edwards/Moses. We think it’s unlikely Moses gets POTMs in 2 games back to back for what it’s worth.

Reasoning for To’o and Nanai is the same as previous games. To’o will always run around 200 metres in an Origin games – just needs one (or ideally two) tries in a tight game to be a great shout at the price. Nanai can score in so many different ways – he’ll almost definitely play the full 80, is on the Maroons’ better attacking side and again, one great try in a low scoring game could make all the difference.

Jake Trbojevic might surprise a few people. In Game 1, the Blues were short a man and always chasing the game. It made sense why he didn’t get many minutes. In Game 2, they were up 34-0 after the first half! They really didn’t need his style of player at any stage in the 2nd half.

If Game 3, a decider at Suncorp, is more of a ‘traditional’ Origin game. Let’s say it’s 16-12 60 minutes in. Surely you agree with us and think Jurbo gets closer to 40-50 minutes? Add to that he’s scored a couple of tries in the last couple of months.

Realistically – we think he needs to play around 45-50 minutes, play his ‘normal’ game in defence and if the Blues win a tight game, he’ll atleast be in the conversation given Moses is unlikely to win POTM two games in a row!

This is the pick we’re most excited about. ‘Origin Gagai’ is a term most footy fans would have heard about it. This is his moment. Back into the Origin side after a couple of years being overlooked. He’s been in electric form for the Knights.

Head to head v Bradman Best, his centre partner for the Knights. $67 for someone who’s won a Wally Lewis Medal before (2017), as well as a POTM award (2019) both at Suncorp, on the (arguably) better side in attack for the Maroons and what a storyline it would be! Screams value.

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Left v Right Analysis

Wicky’s Edge v Edge Preview – In Game 1, we saw ‘The Hammer’ go nuts and Queensland obliterate the Blues’ right side once their right centre was sent off.
In game 2, we saw Mitch Moses put on a masterclass and the impact of Latrell Mitchell when he scored a try and setup a try for To’o.

This game is really tricky to call – but the Maroons’ right edge looks like their go-to in attack once again. Dane Gagai comes in for the Origin decider in the best form he’s been for years. The closest we’ve seen to ‘Origin Gagai’ in the NRL! Next to him – we have Nanai who has scored in almost every 2nd game he’s played in the NRL. Freakish strike rate.

For the Blues – even though they’ll miss the aura of Latrell Mitchell, Bradman Best is definitely a more than capable replacement. Him and Angus Crichton will be lethal on the Blues’ left edge.

But we think their go-to combination in attack will be Mitch Moses and Lomax on the right side. Moses had FOUR try assists – almost as many in a whole series over the last decade. And Lomax has been arguably the most in-form outside back in 2024.

Same Game Multi

TBC.

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