Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Game 2 of State of Origin 2024.
Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.
Women’s State of Origin Game 3 (Maroons v Sky Blues)
Thu 27/6, 7.45pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jessika Elliston FTS @ $67 on Neds
Olivia Kernick FTS @ $41 on Sportsbet
Wicky Origin Try Scorer Preview 25/6 – Last NRLW season, Jessika Elliston really marked herself out as a significant try scoring threat starting at prop for the Gold Coast Titans. In 11 games played on the Titans’ run to the 2023 Grand Final, Elliston scored three times. At 67s on Neds to score first in Origin Game 3, that price is the best for any starting forward in this game and too good to turn down. With Elliston’s scoring threat & track record, the value on offer is clear.
There’s scant value, however, in many of the ‘safer’ picks for first try scorer; all things considered, 41s for Olivia Kernick looks pretty good. Named at lock from the get-go in Game 3, Kernick is remarkably prolific at club level (7 tries in 23 NRLW games for the Roosters). Plus, the Sky Blues forwards have done really well in their battles with the Maroons pack in this series. When weighing up both price and try scoring threat, Kernick stands out as the most attractive pick if NSW convert that domination into points early.
Player of the Match (POTM)
Romy Teitzel @ $67 on Bet365
Yasmin Clydsdale @ $21 on Bet365
Wicky Origin POTM Preview 25/6 – Here’s what we know about Women’s State of Origin games: almost without exception, they’ve been very close affairs and, in the player of the match conversations, it’s the forwards who’ve been the loudest. 5 out of the last 6 player of the match winners (and one player of the series) in Women’s State of Origin games have been forwards, going back to 2021.
Accordingly, we like the Maroons’ Romy Teitzel at 67s for player of the match in this one. It’s a great price for Queensland’s starting right edge forward in a series decider. Plus, you can expect her to be heavily involved in the action: how the Maroons combat the Sky Blues’ pack will decide the shape of this game and their forwards stepping up in this battle could swing a POTM call in their favour. Teitzel is definitely a more long shot pick but put all of this together and you can see the value in her at that price.
Similarly, for New South Wales, Yasmin Clydsdale has been impressive on the edge and was named player of the match in Game 1 of this series. She has recent form for excelling on the Origin stage, the price on 365 is clear, and (the cherry on top) is a try scoring threat in her own right with 9 tries in 29 NRLW games.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for Women’s Origin on our free Discord channel an hour before the game.
Blues v Maroons
Wed 26/6, 8.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Lindsay Collins – FTS @ $67 (365, Neds, TAB) & LTS $67 on 365 and TAB.
Tom Dearden FTS & LTS @ $34 (separate singles) on Bet365
Jaydn Su’A 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on Sportsbet
Cameron Murray ATS @ $9 on Bet365
Latrell Mitchell ATS @ $2.70 on Dabble
Wicky Preview – Tom Dearden has played 59 games since R1, 2022. In that time he’s scored the 1st try six times and the last try 3 times. The odds we’d be seeing if you just went off this would be $10 for FTS and $20 for LTS. $34s for both is insane.
Collins is less about his historical stats. He’s our favourite roughie try scorer pick for this game. He’s only scored 4 tries in the last couple of seasons but he’s been great at Origin level in the last 2 seasons and we can see him crashing over, especially late in the game with Grant at hooker.
Su’A has been in great form this season – the $15 for him to score any of the first 3 tries is ridiculous. It’s similar to seeing $45 for FTS, and he’s priced at $26-34 for that market.
Our two anytime try scorer players – Murray at $9 and Trell at $2.70. Murray’s played 54 NRL games since R1, 2022 and in that time he’s scored 10 tries. If you went by this – he’d be priced at $5.40. Yes it’s Origin and he’ll likely get less minutes than a usual Bunnies game but we love the $9 price.
Latrell is based more on the type of game we think it’ll be. The Blues will definitely be setting him up for opportunities close to the line. Not so much about the value here, but if you’re a Blues fan – he’s the man to get behind!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for Origin on our free Discord channel an hour before the game.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Player of the Match (POTM)
Jeremiah Nanai @ $51 on Bet365
Lindsay Collins @ $41 on Bet Right and Neds
Latrell Mitchell @ $15 on Bet Right
Brian To’o @ $61 on Pointsbet
POTM Reasoning – We’ve gone with 2 options per side. Latrell’s our favoured option. The Blues showed fight in game 1. They played over 70 minutes with 12 men – you can throw out most things that happened in Game 1. Everyone agrees this is a better side. The Blues are the team with more fresh faces – they should improve more as the series goes on. If the Blues win and Latrell has any sort of impact, all the media chat will be about him. It’s hard to see another Blues player winning it unless they have an absolute blinder.
If Latrell does have a good game and the Blues do win – To’o will be the winger outside him, potentially scoring a couple of tries. We’ve written almost exactly the same thing for the last 2 years doing Origin previews. He will rack up 200 run metres. Now if you add a try and maybe another linebreak or try assist back to a player following up in attack, we could finally win a POTM play on To’o!
We’ll keep it short and sweet with Queensland. Collins won a POTM off the bench last year. With no Tino, Gilbert and Flegler – him and Carrigan are the forward pack leaders. How is he $41 for POTM?! A close QLD win and we can see him as one of the top 3-4 favourites. Love the value here.
Nanai played 80 minutes in game 1 whereas Su’A went off after 53. If he plays 80 again and has some success in attack, the $51 price is great value for someone with such strike.
Left v Right Analysis
| R WING | R CTR | R EDG | R HLF | L HLF | L EDG | L CTR | L WING |
| Lomax | S Crichton | L Martin | M Moses | Luai | A Crichton | L Mitchell | To’o |
| M Taulagi | Hammer | Su’A | Dearden | DCE | Nanai | Holmes | Coates |
| L WING | L CTR | L EDG | L HLF | R HLF | R EDG | R CTR | R WING |
Wicky Game Day Preview – Let’s get to the point that everyone is talking about first. Latrell Mitchell. Can the Blues spine, especially Jarome Luai, get Mitchell into the game? Will he go looking for the ball? Will Val Holmes’ defence be good enough to stop him? It feels like the script has been written for him.
There is a chance of some around on Tuesday and Wednesday leading into the game and with the 8pm start, we could see a greasy surface. But we’re backing in Trell Mit to have a huge impact on Game 2.
The other combinations that will be important in our opinion are Crichton and Lomax on the Blues’ right edge and Nanai for the Maroons. The talk in the media has been around how important Crichton will be defensively against the Hammer. We totally agree. But he’s been on fire for the Bulldogs and Lomax has arguably been the most in-form non spine player this season (in attack) – the Blues will have threats on both sides!
The Maroons obviously spent a lot of the game going left in attack to exploit the right edge where Suaalii was missing. But we see them using Nanai a lot more in attack this game. He can score so many different ways – chasing grubbers, running excellent lines and even leaping for bombs.
If you want to follow more of our rugby league analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
18+ Gamble Responsibly
