Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Game 1 of State of Origin 2024. We had an amazing week in NRL Round 12, nailing Payne Haas at 51s and James Fisher-Harris at 67s for first try scorer!
Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.
Women’s State of Origin Game 2 (Sky Blues v Maroons)
Thu 6/6, 7.45pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tarryn Aiken FTS @ $34 on Neds
Sienna Lofipo FTS @ $51 on Sportsbet and Betr
Wicky Origin Try Scorer Preview 5/6 – Both Queensland halves, Tarryn Aiken and Ali Brigginshaw, are 34s for first try scorer on Neds. It’s a price good enough to make either very interesting, but we’re leaning towards Aiken for a few reasons. She’s an electric player, more dynamic and capable of scoring in multiple ways – from breaking lines to scoring long range tries by pinching loose passes.
Plus, Aiken’s the half on the more vulnerable, Jaime Chapman-patrolled left edge and is likely to target that side in attack – as she did in the second half of Game 1, which finally brought some reward for Queensland in the form of an Upton try. Maybe she’ll be motivated to start with that approach this time.
Meanwhile, the teenager Sienna Lofipo is coming off a rookie NRLW season last year studded with a couple of tries and a run to the grand final with the Titans. For Origin Game 2, she’s newly installed at lock for Queensland with Brigginshaw restored to the halves.
Lofipo’s a real roughie pick but, maybe with the exception of Elliston, she’s the middle from either side we’d take for her combination of value and scoring potential. The second of those two tries from last season was reward for impressive persistence when running at four defending Raiders. Hopefully we’ll see a repeat on Thursday.
Player of the Match (POTM)
Tamika Upton @ $7 on Topsport
Tazmin Rapana @ $46 on Sportsbet
Wicky Origin POTM Preview 5/6 – Tamika Upton is a gun fullback for Knights and Queensland, playing at her home ground in Newcastle for this one. POTM in the 2022 & 2023 NRLW Grand Finals, a huge part of the Maroons’ attack & skilled at both scoring and creating. Lives for the big occasion and an unsurprising favourite for POTM in Game 2 of Origin.
In more Maroons news, Ali Brigginshaw is out of lock and back in the halves – and Queensland are hopefully much the wiser about their avenues of attack after the second half of Game 1 plus the potency of the Emma Manzelmann threat on their bench. We should see an improved Maroons performance overall.
With the pieces in place, Tazmin Rapana is another good shout to shine. She has form for impressing on the Origin stage – Rapana was named player of the series in last year’s Origin and POTM in 2021, back when Women’s Origin was a single game. 46s is a great price for a player with a track record like that. She’s also likely going to be on that vulnerable NSW left, which is just the cherry on top.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for Women’s Origin on our free Discord channel an hour before the game.
Blues v Maroons
Wed 5/6, 8.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Reuben Cotter FTS & LTS @ $61 on Sportsbet
Cameron McInnes FTS @ $56 on Sportsbet, LTS @ $51 on Sportsbet, Bet Right and Pointsbet
Spencer Leniu 1st try scorer 2nd half @ $51 on Sportsbet, Topsport + Neds
Game Day Pick: Reece Robson 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $21 on Sportsbet
Wicky Game Day Preview – There’s a bit of rain around Sydney and as we mentioned below – Game 1 AND in Sydney, everything is pointing to a low scoring affair! Our game day pick Robson at $21 to score any of the first 3 tries on Sportsbet – that’s similar to seeing $61 for FTS. There is a chance he could get a break before the 3rd try is scored – but we’re happy to take the risk for this price! He’s scored one of the first 3 tries one in every 13 games. And in a tight game like an Origin Game 1 at Accor – we love the $21s!
Cotter is $61 for FTS on Sportsbet and LTS $51 on Sportsbet and Pointsbet. McInnes is now $61 for LTS on Sportsbet, $51 for FTS on most bookies. Leniu is still $51 for 1st try scorer 2nd half on Neds, Pointsbet and Betr.
Leniu has scored the 1st try in the 2nd half 4 times in 86 games. Obviously most of his career was played in a dominant Panthers outfit and today’s game is closer to 50/50 – but he’s been a menace with ball in attack in recent weeks for the Roosters, we are so excited to see him close to the line early in the 2nd half today! McInnes has already scored the first try in a game this season. And Cotter’s only try this season was the 2nd try (in the 6th minute).
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for Origin on our free Discord channel an hour before the game.
Player of the Match (POTM)
Lindsay Collins @ $67 on Bet365 ($41 or less on 5 other bookies). Bonus Play – $34 for Wally Lewis Medal (Player of the Series)
Jeremiah Nanai @ $41 on Sportsbet and Pointsbet
Brian To’o @ $46 on Sportsbet
Wicky Origin Preview Writeup – To’o is now $51 on TAB. Nanai is now $41 on Sportsbet, TAB and Pointsbet. And Collins is $51 on Bet Right and Bet365, which is still great value considering we think he’s rightly priced around $26-41 on other bookies. There’s definitely rain around Sydney today so we still love these picks and the reasoning below still stands.
To’o will run 200m+ and in what we think will be a tight, low scoring game even 1 try and 200m run metres might get him close to POTM. Collins‘ price is unbelievable. No Tino – aside from Carrigan, he is their leader in the forwards now. Get the $67s while you can. Next best is $41 on Topsport. Nanai can score so many different ways. A big 80 min effort with a special try could jag him POTM here.
Bonus Play – Collins to win Wally Lewis Medal @ $34 on Bet365
Left v Right Analysis
| R WING | R CTR | R EDG | R HLF | L HLF | L EDG | L CTR | L WING |
| Lomax | S Crichton | L Martin | Hynes | Luai | A Crichton | Sua’ali | To’o |
| Taulagi | Hammer | Su’A | Dearden | DCE | Nanai | Holmes | Coates |
| L WING | L CTR | L EDG | L HLF | R HLF | R EDG | R CTR | R WING |
Wicky Game Day Preview – The strategy behind how the teams lineup will be really interesting. The Maroons will be hoping they can get Coates lining up against To’o. The Blues will be hoping to have Lomax against Murray Tualagi. We’ve had a crack at guessing how the sides will line up in the graphic above.
For the Maroons – DCE and Nanai will be crucial. Nanai can score tries in various ways – chasing grubbers, competing for bombs or running excellent lines in good ball areas. DCE is a step above in class compared to Townsend – if he can harness Nanai’s skills, this would be a clear edge for the Maroons in attack.
For the Blues – even though they’ve got a few rookies and their combinations aren’t as established as the Maroons, they would trust these players with their edge defence. Angus Crichton and Liam Martin as backrowers are experienced and dependable. Stephen Crichton is arguably the best defensive centre in the comp. It’s hard to see the Blues’ attack flourishing, however one area they could look to target as Tom Dearden in only his 2nd Origin game in the halves. Hynes running at that left edge for the Maroons is where the Blues will hope to strike.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
18+ Gamble Responsibly
