Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 9 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round.
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Warriors v Roosters
Sun 30/4, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Joey Manu Anytime Try Scorer @ $3.10 on TAB
Luke Keary Anytime Try Scorer @ $5.75 on Neds
Nat Butcher FTS @ $34 & Anytime Try Scorer @ $5.40 on Neds (This won – Butcher scored the first try!)
Marata Niukore 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $19 on TAB
Victor Radley 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $19 on TAB
Egan Butcher FTS @ $34 on Neds
Update Sun 30/4 – For the anytime try scorer market – Keary is now $5.40 on Neds, Nat Butcher is still $5.40 on Neds, Manu is now $2.90 on Bet365. The Butcher brothers are both still $34 to score the first try. For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try market (one bet) – Niukore is $15 and Radley is $16.
The Butcher brothers will likely start on the edges for the Roosters (that’s how they’re currently named). They’re both priced in the mid 20s by our model and most other bookies. In potentially wet conditions, we love the price here. The Warriors have quite a few outs so we think the Roosters are more likely to score early in the game, there’s clear value in the price and both are playing next to Keary and Manu – gun playmakers.
Speaking of Manu and Keary, they are both good value to score anytime. Keary is priced at $4.40 or less by our model and other bookies. He’s scored 3 tries in his last 4 games and we think the Roosters are generally going to have a good day out so this is a great play. Manu scored a try in his first game in the halves last week. He’s averaging over 6 tackle breaks and 130 run metres in his 5 games in 2023. And he’ll now get more touches in the halves as well. Pencil him in for a try in the country he represents in International footy!
The only bet we don’t like anymore is Radley. $16 to score any of the first three tries (one market on TAB) would be similar to seeing $48 to score the first try. Considering he may not be on when the 3rd try is scored, we’re happy to give this one a miss. Marata Niukore, however, is still a reasonable price for a backrower on Shaun Johnson’s side.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Dragons v Bulldogs
Sun 30/4, 4pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Ben Murdoch-Masila (He’s benched – LTS @ $51 the only play we’d now suggest)
1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $21 & ATS @ $7 on TAB. $51 FTS & $51 FTS 2nd Half on TAB.
Reed Mahoney 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $23 & ATS @ $7.50 on TAB
Update Sun 30/4 – Ben Murdoch-Masila is paying $15 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try (TAB) & $6.75 to score a try anytime on Sportsbet. Reed Mahoney is now $17 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try & $6 to score a try anytime on TAB.
Reed Mahoney is not as much of a value play anymore given the update in price and the fact that the Dogs have since lost King and Sutton and are playing with a significantly weakened forward pack in wet conditions. We still think the $23 for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try market earlier in the week is good value. Ben Murdoch-Masila has looked really good the last few weeks and has been in our Punter’s Preview at a good price. He hasn’t delivered – but we loved the price for him earlier in the week and now suggest $51 for him to score the first try and first try in the 2nd half (two separate bets on TAB).
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Sharks v Cowboys
Thu 27/4, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kyle Feldt Anytime try scorer (ATS) @ $3.25 on Neds (This won)
Nicho Hynes 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $13 & ATS @ $4.75 on TAB (Hynes ATS won)
Blayke Brailey 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $19 on TAB
Tom Dearden 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $14 on TAB
Chad Townsend 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $31 on TAB & ATS @ $11.15 on Sportsbet
Reece Robson 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $18 on TAB & ATS @ $7.25 on Neds
Royce Hunt First Try Scorer 2nd Half @ $71 on Sportsbet
Update Thu 27/4 – The prices for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market on TAB are now: Hynes (10), Brailey (16), Dearden (9), Townsend (21), Robson (15). Royce Hunt is now $51 to score the first try in the 2nd half – anything above $61 is decent value (it was $71 yesterday). For anytime try scorer markets – Feldt is now $3.25 on Bet365, Townsend is $11-12 on 365 and Topsport and Robson is still $7.25. Hynes is now $3.80 at best and isn’t great value.
We think Hunt is no longer great value at $51 but the 3 anytime try scorer markets are still good value as we originally tipped yesterday. For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market on TAB – Robson is still great value. Hynes and Brailey are okay. Dearden and Townsend at that price are OK at best. This shows the importance of checking our social media updates and joining our free Discord to make sure you don’t miss out!
Kyle Feldt is priced at $2.56 by our model and his historical strike rate converted to betting odds would have him at just over $2. We love the $3.25 on offer here for Feldt in a crucial matchup against the Cowboys. Dearden & Robson’s historical strike rate at scoring the first try converted to betting odds would be $10 and $20 respectively. We look at this market as the number we’re getting multiplied by 3 to give us an indication of what the first try scorer price would be. We were getting $14 and $18 so $42 and $54 for them yesterday – significantly higher than $10 and $20! Robson’s still at a great price today ($15). Chad Townsend’s historical and model odds would suggest he should be around $6-10, as do most bookies. Up against his old side, we love the value at $12 for him to get over anytime.
Eels v Knights
Fri 28/4, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Lachlan Fitzgibbon Anytime Try Scorer @ $5.80 on Neds
Wiremu Greig FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Tyson Frizell FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Kalyn Ponga FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Update Fri 28/4 – Tyson Frizell and Wiremu Greig are still the same price on Bet365. Lachlan Fitzgibbon is around $5.25.50 on Sportsbet & Neds. Kalyn Ponga is now around $29-31 on Bet365 and Topsport, which we still think is decent value.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Lachlan Fitzgibbon was one of our value plays in Round 8 and boy did he deliver! We mentioned he was a value play to score a try anytime in Round 1 and scored a minute into the game off a Kalyn Ponga special. It wasn’t Ponga that threw the pass last weekend but we think it can be today. He’s scored at least one try in 28 out of 106 games, if the odds were based on this strike rate alone they would be $3.80. Yes the Knights are outsiders here, but we still think anything above $5 is a good price. You can get $5.25-$5.50 on Sportsbet and Neds.
Tyson Frizell has scored in 3 of the 5 full games he’s played in 2023. Our model and most bookies have him priced at $34 or less. We’re getting $41 for him to score the first and last try (separate bets), which we think is good value. The matchup isn’t as good as Kalyn Ponga on the Knights’ favoured right side edge. The bookies must have forgotten how lethal Ponga is due to his concussions. Getting around $30 for Ponga to score the first or last try (separate bets) on Topsport and Bet365 is great value considering how dangerous he looked last week.
Around 10 years ago, Andrew Fifita was making a name for himself and he used to be good odds for try scorer markets before they realised some front rowers can score tries much more often than others. Then came Ryan James historic season for the Titans where a front rower scored the most tries for a team in a season for the first ever time. We think Wiremu Greig can be in this mould. A powerful, stocky runner that looks like he makes a ton of post contact metres, we think he’ll score plenty of tries in his NRL career. For a game they are favourites in, getting $81 for him to score the first or last try (separate bets) on Bet365 is good value and a price you won’t see for too much longer for Greig!
Broncos v Rabbitohs
Fri 28/4, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Cody Walker Anytime Try Scorer @ $3.45 on Neds
Tevita Tatola FTS @ $91 on Sportsbet
Davvy Moale FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet
Billy Walters 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $26 on TAB
Michael Chee-Kam 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $17 on TAB
Cam Murray 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $21 & FTS + LTS @ $51 on TAB
Update Fri 28/4 – Tevita Tatola is now $81 to score the first try on Sportsbet and Neds. He was around $91-101 on Sportsbet earlier, we think anything above $81 is fine but $91-101 is good value. Davvy Moale is now $71 to score the first try in the 2nd half (FTS2H) which we still like. Cody Walker is $3.35 to score a try anytime on Neds which is still decent value. For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market (one bet) on TAB, the prices are now: Walters (17), Chee Kam (9), Murray (13) – none of these three are good value anymore.
The Broncos are missing Payne Haas, arguably the most consistent and best front rower in the game. They’re also missing Ezra Mam and Corey Oates. We love Cam Murray, Tatola and Moale for the matchup here against a weaker Broncos pack and team overall. But we also think we’re getting a good price.
Cam Murray’s strike rate at scoring the first try converted to odds would be $19. We’re getting $51 on TAB. Tatola’s paying $81 on Sportsbet & Neds – we think he should be around $60-70 at most where most bookies and our model have him priced at. Davvy Moale has been in impressive form in recent weeks and is paying $71 to score the first try in the 2nd half. He has a running style suited to try scoring and is extremely involved.
Cody Walker’s scored a try in 73 of 187 games since 2016. If you went by these numbers – his odds would be around $2.60. Most bookies have him priced below that mark. However, you can find $3.45 for him to score a try anytime on Neds. Most fans are thinking Souths should be able to take advantage of a weakened Broncos outfit, so we love the price here.
Raiders v Dolphins
Sat 29/4, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kodi Nikorima 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $23 & ATS @ $7 on TAB
Update Sat 29/4 – Kodi Nikorima is now $13 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on TAB (one market). We don’t like the value for this anymore, however, he is still $7 to score anytime.
Kodi Nikorima’s career strike rate at scoring at least one try in a game converted to odds would be $5.19. His numbers have gotten progressively better over his three games starting in the halves. He’s averaged 100 running metres – we think he’s a good shout to get over anytime to even for the $51 to score first. We also like some of the middle forwards at $67 or above including Ese’ese, Guler and Kenny Bromwich. We nailed Mark Nicholls at $101 to score the first try in the 2nd half after final teams. Even more reason to join our free Discord!
Sea Eagles v Titans
Sat 29/4, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tino Faasumaleaui ATS @ $7.50 on Sportsbet
David Fifita 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $12 on TAB (Fifita scored the 2nd try so this won!)
Kelma Tuilagi FTS @ $38 & ATS @ $5.10 on Topsport
Taniela Paseka FTS @ $81 on Neds
Update Sat 29/4 – David Fifita is now $9 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on TAB (one market). We think this is decent now but the $12 was a great price. Taniela Paseka is still $81 to score the first try on Neds. Kelma Tuilagi is now $5.25 on Sportsbet, however, he’s $34 at best on Bet365. Tino is still $7.50 to score anytime.
Tino Fa’asamaleuai is one of the best middle scoring forwards in the NRL. He scored the 3rd try at $26 to score any of the first three tries for us last weekend. We think this could be a high scoring game and with Tom Trbojevic ruled out, the Titans will be fired up to get a win after their heartbreaking loss last weekend. Taniela Paseka is priced at $60 or less by our model and most bookies – so it’s clear to see why we love the $81 for him to score first on Neds. Mark Nicholls and Jarrod Wallace scored tries against Manly last weekend in the middle of the field.
David Fifita hasn’t scored a try all season. But it’s been his most consistent season of his career. He’s scored at least one try in 30 of his 93 NRL games so we loved the $12 for him to score any of the first three tries on TAB. He’s now into $9 – this or the $26 for fts, lts etc on TAB is still reasonable. Manly’s left edge backrower Kelma Tuilagi has been great for the Sea Eagles this season. He’s now $34 to score the first try on Bet365 and $5.25 to score anytime on Sportsbet.
Panthers v Wests Tigers
Sat 29/4, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jarome Luai 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $14 & ATS @ $5 on TAB
Luke Brooks 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $41 & ATS @ $11 on TAB
Stefano Utoikamanu 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one bet) @ $41 on TAB, FTS @ $126 & ATS @ $14 on Sportsbet
Update Sat 29/4 – For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market – Utoikamanu and Brooks are still the same price, however, Luai is now into $9 which is OK at best. Luai and Brooks are still $11 to score anytime on TAB which we love.
We love all three plays here. Utoikamanu is one of the best middle forward try scorers in the NRL and we’ll keep suggesting him as a value play while he gets priced as a ‘normal’ middle forward. Luai is a great price for a half in a dominant Panthers side – our model’s pick of the game. Brooks is a pure numbers play. Say what you want about his ability as a halfback, he’s a decent ball runner and the price for him to crash over on TAB is a good one.
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