Punter’s Preview NRL Round 20

Punter’s Preview NRL Round 20

We’re coming off two impressive weekends so it’s a big act to follow in Round 20! After tipping three players between $67-101 in Round 18, we tipped Luke Keary ($41) & Jack Murchie ($51) to score the first try in Round 19!  In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best value NRL tips across try scorer & player performance markets. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!

Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!

Knights v Bulldogs

Sunday 31st July, 2pm

Try Scorer Tips

Jacob Saifiti ATS @ $13 on Sportsbet

Tevita Pangai-Junior ATS @ $7.50 on TAB

Paul Vaughan FTS @ $67 on Topsport & Neds

Josh Addo-Carr FTS/LTS @ $8 on Bet365
Update 31/7 – Addo-Carr is isn’t $7.50 but we’re still more than happy to include this as a value play. He picked up two intercepts last weekend and has been in excellent form after forming a lethal combination with Burton on the Dogs’ left edge. He’s scored the first try 4 times already in 2022 so we love the $7.50 up against a Knights team with no Ponga and no finals hopes to play for.

Paul Vaughan is playing his 200th game and one of his last in the NRL. Historically, he’s been one of the best middle forwards in the comp for try scoring strike rate. He hasn’t been as effective in recent years, although we think the $67 for him to score first and even $9.50 for him to score anytime (available at Playup) are still good value plays up against an understrength Knights.

TPJ is now into $6.50 to score anytime as he’s named in the 2nd row. There is still a chance Stimson plays edge and TPJ plays in the middle. We think the best way to play this one is to get on him at $51 to score first in the 2nd half and $6.50 ATS.

Jacob Saifiti is now into $11. It went from being a good value play to being priced at exactly his career strike rate for scoring a try at anytime in a game. We still think it’s an OK value play to have a small stake on up against an understrength Dogs bench.

NRL Round 20 Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Round 20 Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

Jake Averillo is comfortably the best value pick in this contest. His form has been noticeably better at fullback and we think the 32 our model has him projected for is just the base for what he can deliver if the Dogs are on against an understrength Knights. Jackson Topine is rated 10/10 value and we agree with our model in thinking he’s a great pick up at $10,410 starting in the second row for the depleted Dogs’ forward pack.

Continuing on with the theme of Bulldogs players, we think Pangai-Junior & Addo-Carr are great picks in this contest. Addo-Carr’s ceiling range shows what he’s capable of and he actually went over that (77) last week in his near-perfect display including two run-away intercept tries. Pangai-Junior has had a quiet last few weeks but is therefore priced well for what should be an increased role considering the Dogs’ depleted stocks in the forward pack.

Matt Burton is a must-have this game. Has the best ceiling range and projected score this game and playing a Knights team with no Ponga, we think he can comfortably score over our model’s projected score (60) for a Bulldogs team with a much approved attacking game in recent weeks.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Dragons v Cowboys

Sunday 31st July, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Tips

Tom Gilbert FTS @ $34 on Pointsbet

Jeremiah Nanai ATS @ $3.20 on Neds
Francis Molo FTS2H @ $81 on TAB

Update 31/7 – Nanai is into $3 now but we still think it’s a good value play given his form this season. If you went by his career try scoring strike rate, his odds would be $1.73. And although that seems unsustainable for a back rower, the $3 on offer for him to score against a Dragons team with little to play for is a good price.

Gilbert is now into $29 to score the first try. We think this is still a decent play, considering he’s done it twice this season and, like Nanai, has been in excellent form with the added boost of now having Origin experience. Nanai is our preferred play though, as he’s running up against a Dragons left side edge including Billy Burns and Jack Bird.

‘Franky’ Molo comes up against his old side and is available at $81 to score first in the 2nd half on TAB. It’s not great value but worth a small stake on at that price knowing full well that he’ll be fired up to send his old club a message. He did score the first try in the ANZAC Day clash this year at $151 so hopefully he can step up for us again!

NRL Round 20 Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Round 20 Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

Junior Amone is priced at $9k and we have to agree with our model’s projected score and think he can be great value at that price. He has a reasonable ceiling range (54) but even if he can get around our model’s projected score for him (34) he’ll be worth having in your lineup. Andrew McCullough is another great value pickup. Especially with no Jayden Sullivan, we think McCullough can comfortably beat our model’s projected score for him (44) and be a great addition to your lineup at only $12,150.

Valentine Holmes has the highest ceiling range (75) in this contest and we’re going to back him in to score way above our model’s projected score for him (46). With Reuben Cotter back for the Cowboys, they’re back to full-strength after a testing Origin period. Almost half their side had time away from the team either due to Origin or injury over the last couple of months. But now the band’s back together, if you think the Cowboys can win well, Holmes will be in the midst of it and is also their goal-kicker.

 

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Manly v Roosters

Thursday 28th July, 7.50pm

Try Scorer Tips

Luke Keary First Try Scorer @ $31 on Topsport

Nat Butcher FTS/LTS @ $31 on TAB

Paul Momiroski Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $3.25 on Neds

Joey Manu ATS @ $2.20 on TAB

Manly have eight players that won’t be playing for them this weekend so the Roosters are, understandably, heavy favourites. Luke Keary scored the 1st try for the Roosters last weekend after we had tweeted that our model had highlighted him as a value play. That was at $41 but we love him to do it again at $31 against an understrength Manly team. Keary and Momirovski are on the Roosters’ left against coming up against a right edge defence for Manly that only has their Captain Cherry-Evans in their team from last weekend. Our model loves Momirovski’s odds to score a try at anytime and he’s also noticeably higher on Neds than other bookies.

Our model also loves Joey Manu to score a try anytime at $2.20 (TAB) and with his increased involvement over recent weeks, we think this is a great play considering the Roosters are now 18.5 point favourites. Nat Butcher is noticeably higher odds than our model and other bookies would suggest and we love him to score the 1st try at $31.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

Ethan Bullemor & Sam Walker are both rated 10/10 in our value ratings, which compares each player’s price with their projected scores. Bullemor will get close to 80 minutes in the second row next to DCE and he’s a great hole-runner so we think he’s a great pick-up at $10,360. Walker has to content with Keary, Tedesco & Manu for touches in a stacked Roosters outfit but considering they are 18.5 point favourites, it’s hard for us to disagree with our model saying he’s a good value pick!

Of the four players with a ceiling range (average of the player’s 3 highest DFS scores in 2022) over 70, only 2 are Roosters players. Considering Manly are noticeably understrength and missing 8 of their players from last weekend, we think Joey Manu & James Tedesco are great picks in this contest. Manu has been in sensational form playing in the halves, centres & at fullback over the last two months. He is returning from a calf injury but we think that shouldn’t dissuade you from picking the young superstar. Tedesco has been all class in 2022 and has the highest projected score for this contest so we think he’s a must pick.

If you are going to be relying on Roosters players, especially Manu & Tedesco, you’re going to need some cheapies to complete your line-up. Paul Momirovski is under $10k and is playing on the left edge for the Roosters up against Cherry-Evans with 3 new players on the right side for Manly. Morgan Boyle & Kurt de Luis are both under $11k and playing in a Manly pick with only Jake Trbojevic as a big minute middle forward player.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

Angus Crichton hadn’t scored a try in 2022 until last weekend (Round 19). He now comes up against a Manly right-side edge defence missing three of their players from last weekend. We would have loved to tip him in our try scorer value plays but his price was just too short. However, considering his PP line is set at his season average for base stats (50.5 on Sportsbet) we think playing the overs here is the way to go. He may make less tackles if the Roosters dominate the game like they are expected to, but we love the potential upside of linebreaks, try assists or tries especially with Luke Keary back.

Angus Crichton Player Performance 2021
Angus Crichton Player Performance 2021

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Warriors v Storm

Friday 29th July, 6pm

Try Scorer Tips

Shaun Johnson FTS/LTS @ $67 & ATS @ $10 on TAB

Tohu Harris FTS @ $101 on Neds

Chanel Harris-Tavita ATS @ $10 on TAB

Tui Kamikamica FTS @ $61 & ATS @ $11.50 on Sportsbet (Updated after final teamlists – anything higher than $51 is good value for him)

Tohu Harris actually scored the first try in the Warriors’ homecoming against the Tigers a month ago. Up against a Storm side coming off 4 losses, we had to include this in our value plays. One of the rare plays which gets three ‘green lights’ showing up as good value according to our model, his historical strike rate & priced significantly higher on Neds than other bookies!

It’s a tough match to get a read on. The bookies have Storm around 12 point favourites, however the Storm are coming off four losses and it’s the Warriors’ second game at home in front of their loyal fans. The Warriors’ halves are both significantly better odds on TAB than other sites. We’ve chosen Johnson for FTS/LTS too as he’s priced at $67. Both of them to score a try at $10 is a great play according to our model as well.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

Sorting by ‘value’ for this game, there are only 5 players rated 7/10 or above which is quite rare. Three of them are on the Storm’s left edge, so that may be a good way to start building your team. Kenny Bromwich, Justin Olam & Dean Ieremia are all priced quite well and Olam and Bromwich also have reasonable ceiling ranges.

There are 5 players with a ceiling range above 70 points. Grant, Munster & Hughes being there isn’t a surprise. However, Aitken & Johnson being the other two could be a unique way to look at building your team. It does also come down to how you see this game. The Storm are coming off 4 losses. The Warriors are playing just their second game back at home in NZ. If you think the Warriors can stay competitive, then Johnson & Aitken have a lot of upside and could be a great way to start building your side.

Tohu Harris has been in great form for the Warriors and is coming up against his old team in this one. Even though he’s priced just under $20k, we think he’s a great pick for this contest. Although Josh Curran is back in the side, he’s been named on the edge. And with Jack Murchie missing for the Warriors, he could play most of the game there with only Eli Katoa on the Warriors’ bench that could take some minutes off him.

Nick Meaney has had a tough initiation since he’s taken on the role of the Storm’s fullback and Reece Walsh has just won his fullback spot back, however, we think they are both solid picks at their price. They are both priced around $14k and will likely be goal-kicking, so they should have reasonable base stats with the upside of increased involvement in attack playing at fullback.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

Nelson Asofa-Solomona over 31.5 player performance points on Bet365. The last four games he’s played 45-56 minutes and scored 35-50 player performance points. With Brandon Smith out the last couple of weeks, it has really stretched the Storm pack. Playing the Warriors in NZ, we know we’ll get maximum effort from NAS and we think he can comfortably cover the 31.5 line.

NAS Player Performance 2022
NAS Player Performance 2022

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Eels v Panthers

Friday 29th July, 7.55pm

Try Scorer Tips

Maika Sivo ATS @ $2.50 on Neds

Brian To’o FTS @ $11 on Bet365

Penrith have only lost one game in 2022 since winning the 2021 NRL Premiership and that indeed against the Eels. The Eels are at home in their second encounter this season and the Panthers have lost Stephen Crichton & Jarome Luai through injury.

There isn’t a lot of value in this contest so we’ve gone with two of the best attacking wingers in the game for our value plays. To’o is reasonably good value according to our model but is priced at 1.6 times the price he would be if you just went by his career strike rate scoring the first try. Sivo has looked much better in recent weeks after his return from injury and the $2.40 for him to score a try anytime is significantly better than the odds his career strike rate would suggest ($1.70).

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

We’ll start off by looking at players priced at $11k or less in this contest. Gutherson, Sivo & Sorenson seem the best cheap value picks. Sorenson seems the only big minute middle forward on the Panthers’ bench so we think he can easily get the 37 points our model has him projected for. Gutherson & Sivo will find it difficult to score a lot of DFS points through attacking plays against the Panthers. However, if there was a time to play them, it’s when they’re missing Leota, Luai & Stephen Crichton. Sivo’s form has been noticeably better over the last couple of weeks and Gutherson will step up for a chance to beat the Eels twice in a season.

Cleary, Moses, Papali’i & Dylan Brown are the four players who have the highest ceiling range in this contest. We expect Cleary to step up and take more responsibility of the team given three of their key players are out. We think the best way to approach this would be to either go Cleary OR Moses & Papali’i in your teams as they both play on the right side attack for the Eels up against a Panthers left edge without Luai.

With most fans expecting a tough, defence oriented game here, we think both hookers Koroisau & Mahoney would be good picks. Their recent form and ceiling range isn’t anything special, however, in these types of games we think they’ll have a high tackle count and just need one attacking play to hit their ceiling range. If you’re unsure about which team will win and don’t want to commit to players like Moses & Cleary, picking these two tackle bots could be a unique way to build your side.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Titans v Raiders

Saturday 30th July, 3pm

Try Scorer Tips

Erin Clark FTS @ $81 on Sportsbet

Jamal Fogarty FTS/LTS @ $34 on TAB/Pointsbet/Topsport

Tino Faasuamaleaui FTS @ $67 on Neds

AJ Brimson FTS/LTS @ $21 on Bet365

Beau Fermor ATS @ $5.25 on Sportsbet

Update 30/7 – Clark is now only available at $67 but we still think it’s a great value play considering how impressive he’s looked in the last couple of weeks at lock. In fact, now he’ll be available at $67 for LTS too.

Jamal Fogarty comes up against his old team in a must-win game for the Raiders. We love the $34 on offer for FTS/LTS. Our model has his FTS price at $24 so it’s a standout pick for this game.

Big Tino is now only available at $51 on TAB & Neds. We still think that’s a decent price. He’ll be up against an in-form Raiders pack and want to lead from the front. Again another one that we recommend for a small stake for FTS & LTS at $51.

Brimson is available at the same price ($21 on 365) and Fermor at $5 on SB – so we do still think they are good value picks and have both looked in good form for the Titans. They are both priced significantly better than their historical strike rate for FTS & ATS respectively.

**There are a couple of plays we’ve recommended for FTS and LTS on gameday, that were only for FTS earlier in the week. This is because some sites (eg. Neds) have noticeably lower odds for LTS. Whereas TAB usually has the same price for FTS & LTS.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

Erin Clark has been excellent since moving to a middle forward role, scoring 76 and 64 DFS points in the last two weeks. Aaron Booth has done a reasonable job but having Clark in a role where he is genuinely one of the Titans’ best players has been a great outcome for the Titans. They are both good value picks rated 8-9/10 looking at our model’s projected score and their price on Draftstars.

There are five players with a ceiling range above 70 in this contest. After his recent form, Erin Clark is actually one of them! Hudson Young, Tino Faasuamaleuai, David Fifita & Joseph Tapine are the other four. This further shows why Clark is a must-have pick, as he’s priced at $12,820 whereas the others are around $18-22k. Young had a quiet game last week but has been in great form this season and David Fifita has been solid without really exploding since his return. Tino’s scores have been down since the Origin period but he’ll want to lead from the front against the in-form Raiders pack.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Sharks v Rabbitohs

Saturday 30th July, 5.30pm

Try Scorer Tips

Alex Johnston FTS/LTS @ $9 on Bet365

Lachlan Ilias FTS/LTS @ $51 on Bet365

Braden Uele FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $67 on TAB

Cam Murray FTS @ $34 on TAB/365/Topsport

Update 30/7 – We say this every week but Uele has one of the best try scoring strike rates for middle forwards in the NRL. Anytime he’s priced at $61 or above he’ll likely be in our value picks for the game. He’s currently named on the bench so we love the $67 for him to score the first try in the second half. He’s done this 3 times in his 72 game career which would be $24 odds if you purely went by his strike rate.

Murray is $34 to score the first try, which is double the price he should be according to his career strike rate. Obviously he is a middle forward and it’s expected to be a close game so the price should realistically be in the mid-late 20s but we think it’s a good price for Murray in a huge game for the Bunnies.

Ilias is now into $41 and AJ into $8.5. Ilias is now an OK option but AJ we still think is a great value play and our model agrees, having priced him at $7.20.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

There clearly isn’t a lot of value in this DFS contest, with the best value players being rated a 7/10. Of those options, we think Jesse Ramien is the standout pick. With an 89 and 61 before last week’s quiet score, Ramien has been in incredible form with ball in hand. He’ll also be asked to do plenty of defence coming up against the Rabbitohs’ lethal left edge attack.

Looking at the ceiling range (average of each player’s 3 highest DFS scores in 2022), there are 10 players with a ceiling range over 70. Talakai had an incredible run of form earlier in the season, but as a left centre, those numbers seem unsustainable. So even though he’s an OK pick at $13,280 we don’t think he can come close to his ceiling range of 93!

This game is likely to be a close one so we’re expecting high base stats counts including tackles and run metres. Cook & Murray have been in great form for the Rabbitohs and we would definitely consider having them in your lineup if you can afford them.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Broncos v Wests Tigers

Saturday 30th July, 7.35pm

Try Scorer Tips

Luke Brooks FTS/LTS @ $81 & ATS @ $10 on TAB (Void – he’s ruled out due to injury)

Fa’amanu Brown FTS @ $61 on Sportsbet

Kotoni Staggs ATS @ $2.7 on TAB

Update 30/7 – Brown is now $71 on Sportsbet. The Broncos are deservedly strong favourites but if the Tigers do get an attacking set in the Broncos’ 20 early, Brown will almost certainly have a crack from dummy half. He’s looked really good close to the line and has scored a couple of tries already in the last few weeks. Anything above $61 and we think it’s a great value play. It’s priced at $51 or less on all other major bookies.

Staggs is now $2.50 on TAB. It’s still better than the $2.28 our model has him priced at but we think now it’s an OK play rather than being really good value at $2.70 earlier in the week.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

The Tigers’ season is over and there are a few well priced players that stand out in our value ratings. Alex Seyfarth is starting on an edge and even if he gets close to the 40 points our model has him projected for, he’ll be a great pick up at $9,000. Of the other players that are rated 7/10 or better in our value ratings, we think Ezra Mam is the other standout pick. He’s priced at $11,670 and has been scoring in the 30s over the last few weeks. But he’s an absolute live-wire with ball in hand, so we think he could crack 45+ points with a try up against a weak Tigers outfit.

There are 5 players with a ceiling range above 70 in this contest. Ofahengaue will likely continue to get less minutes playing at prop with Hastings still at lock, so we think he’s a good option to fade (keep out of your team). Reynolds has been consistently strong in 2022 and Haas looks like he’s in much better shape after the couple of weeks off due to injury. They would be our picks out of the players with the highest upside in this contest.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

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