Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 15 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round.
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Bulldogs v Eels
Mon 12/6, 4pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Josh Addo-Carr ATS @ $2.3 on Bet365 + FTS @ $11 on Betr + Bet365
Junior Paulo FTS @ $67 on Neds/Lads
Reed Mahoney FTS2H & LTS @ $51 on TAB
Update Mon 12/6 – Josh Addo-Carr will is noticeably higher odds than his career strike rate would suggest he should be. The Eels are still 6 point favourites – but with Mahoney in and Dylan Brown out, we think this game will be much closer. And if it is – we love the play for Burton to put Addo-Carr in for a try. Ideally the first try at $11!
Reed Mahoney comes up against his old side and is $41 for FTS, LTS markets. TAB still have him for $51 for FTS2H & LTS and we like that price for a player against his old side and in a Dogs team almost at full strength v an Eels side missing Dylan Brown.
Junior Paulo will want to put on a show for a struggling Eels side that need this win. He’s noticeably higher odds at $67 than his career strike rate would suggest and most bookies.
Any additional plays we’ll add to our Discord & Facebook group an hour before kick-off when teams are finalised.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
We’ve had a ridiculous weekend. Got First Try Scorers with Fogarty ($46), Iszac Faasamaleuai ($101), Pangai Junior ($67) & then Last Try Scorer Townsend ($61)
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— Wicky (@wickyai) June 4, 2023
Titans v Wests Tigers
Thu 8/6, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Stefano Utoikamanu Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $9 on Playup ($8.50 on SB) + Team First Try Scorer & Last Try Scorer @ $26 (2 bets)
Joe Stimson First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $41 on Neds/Lads
Update Thu 8/6 – This is a game of the battle of two of the best try scoring middle forwards in the NRL. Tino Faasamaleuai v Stefano Utoikamanu. Unfortunately they are both really short odds on most bookies now but if you’re on our free Discord group chat – we’ll keep an eye out and send an alter if they get out to a good price!
Joe Stimson’s priced around $30-34 by most bookies and our model to score the first try. It’s clear to see why the $41 to score first against the Tigers is good value on Neds/Ladbrokes.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Raiders v Warriors
Fri 9/6, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Emre Guler FTS 2nd half (FTS2H) @ $81 on Neds/Lads
Marata Niukore FTS + FTS2H @ $41 & ATS @ $6.40 on Neds/Lads. $LTS @ $41 on Bet365.
Zac Woolford FTS @ $51 on Neds/Lads
Bunty Afoa FTS @ $81 on Neds/Lads
Update Fri 9/6 – Guler is still $81 to score the first try in the 2nd half on Neds/Ladbrokes. Niukore is still $41 for FTS & FTS2H on Neds/Ladbrokes & is also $41 for LTS on Bet365. He’s $6 on 365 and $6.50 on Neds/Ladbrokes for ATS also. Woolford is still $51 & Afoa is still $81 for FTS on Neds/Lads.
Marata Niukore plays on the Warriors’ right side with Shaun Johnson. He’s great value compared to most bookies and our model but also we love the tactical edge to this play!
Emre Guler is paying $51 or less on most bookies to score the first try in the 2nd half. He’ll get big minutes for the Raiders and should be fresh early in the 2nd half. Great price for a strong ball runner.
Any additional plays we’ll add to our Discord & Facebook group an hour before kick-off when teams are finalised.
Bunty Afoa is a good value play at $81 for FTS for similar reasons to Guler. Other bookies have him priced around $60-75 and his career stats aren’t as good (Guler scores roughly every 11 games, Afoa every 17 games) but we still the FTS price.
Zac Woolford is priced around $40-50 by most bookies and our model for FTS. So it’s not an obvious play looking at the numbers. But if you think the Raiders can start strongly in Croker’s 300th and dominate field position with Papalii, Tapine & Horsburgh then we love the $51 for FTS for Woolford to crash over early.
Manly v Dolphins
Fri 9/6, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Brenko Lee FTS + FTS2H @ $41 & ATS @ $6.40 on Neds/Lads
Haumole Olakau’atu ATS @ $3.50 on Betr + Playup
Kenny Bromwich FTS @ $67 & ATS @ $9 on Neds/Lads
Jesse Bromwich FTS @ $91 on Sportsbet + Topsport
Mark Nicholls FTS2H @ $61 on Pointsbet & LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Update Fri 9/6 – Brenko Lee has been crunched in on Neds/Lads and is no longer value. Kenny Bromwich is around $51 for FTS & $7 for ATS on Neds/Lads which is OK but clearly the $67 and $9 were way better earlier in the week! Mark Nicholls is still the same price for FTS2H & LTS. Jesse Bromwich is still $91 for FTS on Playup. Haumole has been crunched in – he’s now $3.25 on Pointsbet which we still think is OK.
Mark Nicholls has scored 8 tries in 76 games since 2020 putting him in the 2nd tier of the best try scoring middle forwards in the NRL. The $61 for FTS2H is a decent price but he’ll almost definitely be on. We think he’ll get a 2nd stint considering how short the Dolphins are in their pack – so we love the $81 for LTS also.
Jesse Bromwich is still $91 for FTS on Playup – considering Marshall-King is great at putting his middle forwards over and Jesse has historically been a decent try scorer, we like the $91 price for FTS. We wouldn’t play it below $81.
Dragons v Rabbitohs
Sat 10/6, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Alex Johnston FTS @ $8 on Betr
Lachlan Ilias ATS @ $6 on Betr (This won)
Jed Cartwright FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Lads
Moses Suli FTS @ $29 + ATS @ $4.75 on Neds/Lads
Billy Burns FTS @ $51 on Pointsbet + $6.50 ATS on Sportsbet
Jaydn Sua FTS @ $38 on Topsport
Michael Chee-Kam FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Lads
Update 10/6 – Alex Johnston is now $8.50 for FTS on Betr. Jed Cartwright is now $81 for FTS2H on Neds which we still like. Ilias is now $6 for ATS on Pointsbet. Chee-Kam’s odds have been crunched in with a rumour that he’ll be starting on an edge.
Suli is now $26 and $4.60 for FTS & ATS on Neds. Jaydn Su’a is now $29 for FTS on 365 & Topsport which is OK at best. Billy Burns is now $41 for FTS on 365, Pointsbet & Unibet – which is still good value.
Souths now have Latrell, Walker, Murray, Arrow & Tom Burgess out. The Walker news broke the day before the game so the markets have changed significantly. The value we found earlier in the week for Rabbitohs players isn’t as good. Whereas the prices for Suli and Burns especially are even better now.
Moses Suli at $26 to score first and $4.60 is a great price now that the Rabbitohs are missing 5 crucial players. Our model and most bookies have him around 10-15% less than his prices here.
Billy Burns played 80 minutes and ran for 118 metres against the Panthers last week. We love the $41 for him to score first against a weakened Souths outfit. We’ve added the $6.50 for ATS on Sportsbet as well.
The price for Alex Johnston has gone up but with Latrell and Cody both being out, we don’t love the play anymore. It’s OK at best. The Ilias ATS play at $6 becomes only marginal value now too. The price is decent and he should see more of the ball. But we think this game is likely to be much tighter now.
We noticed on Twitter that there’s a rumour Chee-Kam will start on the edge with Koloamatangi to play at lock. So the $67 FTS2H play from earlier in the week is now amazing value – however, the price has been crunched in. We also had Jed Cartwright to score FTS at a great price when news broke he’d be playing in the centres. He started in the centres and scored the first try at $29! We love the FTS2H play at $81 on him because if there’s an injury in the backs – he’ll slot in. And at worst, $81 is an OK price for a bench middle forward.
Broncos v Knights
Sat 10/6, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Greg Marzhew ATS @ $2.60 on Bet365
Dom Young ATS @ $2.45 on Bet365 (This won)
Jackson Hastings FTS @ $71 on Topsport
Leo Thompson FTS + LTS @ $101 on Bet365
Brendan Piakura FTS2H $41 on Neds/Lads
Jacob Saifiti FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet or Neds/Lads
Lachlan Fitzgibbon ATS @ $6.75 on Betr (Void – ruled out)
Update Sat 10/6 – Marzhew is still $2.60 and Young is still $2.45 for ATS – both on 365. Thompson is still $101 for FTS + LTS on Bet365. Hastings is $67 for FTS on Topsport which is still fine. Jacob Saifiti is $81 for FTS2H on Neds and Piakura is still $41 for FTS2H on Neds.
Marzhew & Young are both excellent odds on 365. The Knights have the highest % of tries scored by their wingers in the NRL in 2023. Marzhew would be priced around $1.83-1.89 if you went by our model and his career strike rate. Young would be between $1.85-2.11. You can see why we love their odds to score anytime against the Broncos. The Broncos had 5 of their key players in Origin 1, 4 of them backed up and now they’re playing their 3rd game in 10 days. The Knights just had Frizell involved in Origin and we think they’ll be up for this game.
Jackson Hastings is priced around $50-60 by our model and most bookies to score the first try. We love his competitiveness and think with Ponga back at fullback, Hastings is always involved and can see multiple ways how he could score a try. The $67 for FTS is good value.
Leo Thompson has been impressive in 2023 – locking in a spot in the starting front row for the Knights. Most bookies have him at $81 or less for FTS & LTS – his running style suits try scoring and we think it’s not long till he crashes over for a try. Let’s hope it’s the first or last one tonight!
Jacob Saifiti is priced in the $60s by most bookies and his career strike rate to score the first try in the 2nd half. We love the $81 on offer, running at a Broncos pack with Haas and Carrigan likely on the bench.
Brendon Piakura played on the edge with Capewell moving to the middle of the field last week. If the Broncos do that again, the $41 is an excellent price for Piakura to crash over first in the 2nd half. Other bookies have him at $21 or less for the same market!
Roosters v Panthers
Sat 10/6, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jarome Luai FTS @ $31 on Pointsbet
Brian To’o FTS @ $11 on Betr
Spencer Leniu LTS @ $67 on Bet365 & FTS2H @ $51 on Pointsbet + ATS @ $12 on 365.
Update Sat 10/6 – To’o is still $11 for FTS on Betr. Luai is now $26 for FTS which we think is OK but not clear value. Leniu is still $51 for FTS2H on Pointsbet & $67 for LTS on 365.
Brian To’o is around $7.50-$9.50 to score the first try if you look at most bookies, our model and his career strike rate converted to odds. Yes Nathan Cleary is out but the Panthers are still a strong side and the $11 for FTS is a standout price on Betr.
Spencer Leniu crashed over for the first try in the 2nd half (which also ended up being the last try!) in Magic Round for us at $101. The odds are now $51 for FTS2H this weekend but he’s done it once every 17 games he’s played! Most bookies have him at $41 or less. He was VERY close to scoring another one last weekend and he’s apparently playing for an Origin spot. We love the $51 for FTS2H & think the $67 for LTS is a shot too in case he gets a 2nd stint. We’ve also added the $12 for him to score anytime. Most bookies and his career strike rate would suggest these odds should be les than $9.
Storm v Sharks
Sun 11/6, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Sione Katoa ATS @ $2.3 on Bet365
Ronaldo Mulitalo ATS @ $2.15 on Bet365 (This won)
Nicho Hynes ATS @ $ 6 on Playup
Jahrome Hughes ATS @ $4 on Pointsbet (This won)
Braden Uele FTS2H @ $51 on Pointsbet
Update Sun 11/6 – Sione Katoa & Mulitalo are the same price on 365 and still good value. Hynes is now $5.50 at best on Pointsbet which is OK value. Hughes is still $4 ATS on Pointsbet.
The Sharks wingers Katoa & Mulitalo are significantly better priced on 365 than our model. With Olam missing on the Storm’s left edge and Coates a noted defensive liability, we love Katoa especially on the Sharks’ right edge with Nicho Hynes.
Hynes & Hughes are only slightly better than other bookies and our model for ATS markets. However, both are noticeably better priced than their career strike rate would suggest they should be. They’re also pretty good odds for FTS/LTS odds markets at $34 and $26 respectively which we like.
Braden Uele scores a try every 7 NRL games he plays. He hasn’t scored a try in 2023. We’re counting on Uele to break the drought against the Storm. He’s $51 to score the first try in the 2nd half. He’s already done this 4 times in his 92 NRL games.
Same game multi value play – Mulitalo & Sione Katoa both to score a try @ $5 on Bet365. Great price compared to other bookies for our value plays for today!
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