Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 14 of the 2024 NRL season. We had an amazing week in Round 12, nailing Payne Haas at 51s and James Fisher-Harris at 67s for first try scorer!
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Bulldogs v Eels
Mon 10/6, 4pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jacob Preston FTS & LTS @ $21 on Bet365
Game Day Picks:
Toby Sexton 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds
Stephen Crichton FTS & LTS @ $21 on Bet365
Wicky Game Day Preview Mon 10/6 – Firstly, Preston is still $21 for FTS and LTS on Bet365. He’s scored 3 tries in recent weeks and interestingly – Salmon also scored 2 in one game when playing right 2nd row. We wrote more about how Kikau missing might be affecting the Dogs’ attack here.
It should be a great 4pm day game with a lot of tries but there just isn’t that much value in try scorer markets today! We’ve added 2 other Dogs’ right side players as game day picks. Crichton at $21 for FTS and LTS – clearly priced higher than the market. 5 days after Origin, he should be ready to go. He scores the first try in games every 8.54 games!
Sexton is around $26-34 for 1st try scorer. We’re getting $14 for him to score any of the first three tries – similar to seeing $42 for FTS! Love this price on Neds for someone looking to make that right side half position his own for the much improved Bulldogs.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Dragons v West Tigers
Fri 7/6, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS @ $51 on Neds, LTS @ $51 on TAB
Api Koroisau FTS & LTS @ $34 (separate) on Bet
Fonua Pole LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Wicky Game Day Preview Fri 7/6 – It should be a heavy track with potential rain during the game. We love the value on the Tigers side here.
Both Stefano and Api have scored the last try one in every 21 games. We’re getting $51 and $34 respectively. We love these prices in the wet especially! Pole is more of a gut feel pick – he’s already scored a try this year, Api’s great at putting middle forwards over and with the lack of middle forward options for the Tigers we think he’ll be on at the end of the game.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Titans v Rabbitohs
Sat 8/6, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Damian Cook FTS @ $41 on Betr and Bet365, LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Davvy Moale FTS & LTS (separate) @ $67 on Neds and Bet365
Game Day Picks:
Cody Walker ATS @ $3.60 on Bet365
Jack Wighton ATS @ $3.90 on Bet365
Game Day Preview Sat 8/6 – We’ve added a couple of anytime try scorer picks for this one as it should be a day-time game on a fast track. More value in ATS rather than trying to nail a big odds fts/lts play. If you look at the odds our model suggests both Walker and Wighton should be paying and how other bookies have them priced – we think they’re both great picks. And the narrative – the Rabbitohs trying to save their season with one of the weaker teams in the comp.
Our original picks are both at the same price. Cook scored last to win us a play at $51 only a couple of weeks ago! We love the $41s for him against the Titans for FTS and LTS. He should get a spell during the game so he’ll be fresh later for LTS also.
We love McInnes and Kaufusi especially due to the Sharks being the team who have scored the most middle forward tries in 2024!
Moale is a powerful ball-runner, the type of player we’re happy to pick at good prices until he does finally score! See what happens to middle forwards odds after they go on a run (we nailed Fonua-Blake and Hazelton at big odds in 2023 and now they’re priced in the 20s for FTS..).
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Cowboys v Warriors
Sat 8/6, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Marata Niukore FTS @ $41 on Bet365
Griffin Neame FTS @ $67 on Neds
Te Maire Martin FTS & LTS (separate) @ $41 on TAB
Game Day Picks:
Chanel Harris-Tavita 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12.50 on Neds
Game Day Preview Sat 8/6 – We’ve only added CHT @ $12.50 to score any of the first three tries as we’re predicting mass changes for both teams given how their benches are named currently. Remember this is what we look to nail with Wicky Premium – we still have a few spots left in Gold and Silver if you take your punting seriously and are keen on value try scorer picks.
Niukore and Neame are still the same price but TMM has come all the way into $29 for FTS and LTS (365) which we still think is OK to get on. Neame is another one who we’ll keep backing at good prices – he’d scored FTS 2nd half 3 times in around 50 games off the bench. That would have him at around $17 for that market. Now he’s starting and we’re getting $67s for FTS, you can see why we love it! Niukore is $41 playing on an edge – our model has him at $30 and he did score a try in the Warriors’ last game as well.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Broncos v Sharks
Sat 8/6, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Oregon Kaufusi FTS @ $67 on Pointsbet
Cameron McInnes FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Jack Gosiewski LTS @ $41 on TAB
Blayke Brailey 1/2/3rd try @ $17 on Neds
Game Day Picks: Briton Nikora FTS & LTS (Separate) @ $34 on Pointsbet
Game Day Preview Sat 8/6 – We’ve added Nikora at $34 for FTS and LTS. He’s an excellent hole runner and even though Hynes isn’t playing, we love this price for someone who’s scored the first try one in every 24 games and the last one in every 18!
All four of our original picks are the same price. We love McInnes and Kaufusi especially due to the Sharks being the team who have scored the most middle forward tries in 2024! We’ve broken this down in our left v right article for the week.
Brailey has scored a try only a few weeks ago and seeing $17 for him to score any of the first three tries against a Broncos pack missing Willison and having Haas and Carrigan backing up from Origin – we love this play.
Gosiewski is based on him likely playing on the edge at the end of the game for Piakura. Fair price for this would be in the mid $20s – you can see why we love the $41s on TAB for last try scorer for Gosi!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Storm v Knights
Sun 9/6, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jack Cogger FTS @ $51 on Neds and 365, LTS @ $51 on 365
Adam Elliott FTS & LTS @ $61 on Sportsbet
Leo Thompson FTS @ $81 on Neds, LTS @ $67 on 365, Neds, Bet Right
Jayden Brailey 1/2/3rd try @ $23 on Neds
Kai Pearce-Paul 1/2/3rd try @ $16 on Neds
Jackson Hastings FTS & LTS (separate) @ $41 on Tab and 365
Brodie Jones FTS2H @ $67 on Neds
Game Day Preview Sun 9/6 – Fair to say, we don’t need an extra game day pick here – tons of picks and value already! Jack Cogger, Jayden Brailey, Hastings, Brodie Jones and KPP – these picks are still the same price. Cogger and Brailey are purely a play at the number, yes they are 13 point underdogs and these guys aren’t the most exciting try scorer options – but we just think the odds are too high. Brodie Jones scored a try just 2 weeks ago – we love the $67s for him to crash over early in the 2nd half or chase a grubber!
Hastings is interesting – he looks like he’s on one leg half the time but he’s scored 6 tries in 33 games since 2023 including 3 first tries! So we love the value for him. Pearce-Paul looks athletic and hasn’t scored an NRL try yet. But as $15 to score any of the first three tries – similar to seeing $45 for FTS, we love the price here!
Adam Elliott won us a motza early in the season when he scored the first and second try in one game and our Premium members won 3 tips including $81 for 2nd try scorer! For the first time in a while – we see him at great odds again. He’s scored 3 tries this season already. He’s now $67 for FTS on Betr and $71 for LTS on Sportsbet!
Leo Thompson is $81 for FTS on Neds and $71 for LTS on Sportsbet. He’s been really impressive for the last 12 months. Although he’s only scored 1 try – we love getting players like this at high odds before they score a couple of tries and are priced around $41-51 most weeks!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Panthers v Sea Eagles
Sun 9/6, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Josh Aloiai FTS & LTS @ $81 on 365 (separate)
Taniela Paseka FTS & LTS @ $81 on 365 (separate)
Toa Sipley FTS2H @ $67 on Neds
Scott Sorenson 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12 on Neds
Luke Brooks 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on Neds
Game Day Preview Sun 9/6 – Another game where we have enough picks so no game day pick. Paseka and Aloiai are the same price still – FTS price is also there on Pointsbet and Neds. Brooks is also the same price for 1/2/3 on Neds.
We love Paseka and Aloiai at big odds here – yes the Panthers are favourites at home but they are missing a few troops and it just needs some Manly field possession early for these guys to get a crack. Aloiai’s historical stats are better and he does try to crash over close to the line a bit more than Paseka, who is just a brute of a man!
We love the Brooks price here – similar to seeing $45 for FTS! We wrote more about the tactical reasons this is a good play in our left v right edge article.
Sipley is now into $51 for FTS2H – we think this is fine for a fun bet, he’s a strong ball runner and the Panthers are missing Edwards, Cleary, Martin and could be susceptible to a hungry Sipley fresh early in the 2nd half! Sorenson has now been crunched in to $8.50 on Neds – close to fair price.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
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