Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 12 in the 2024 NRL season. We had a bumper last round, hitting Damien Cook at 51s and Tom Hazelton at 41s for last try scorer in Magic Round!
Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.
Broncos v Titans
Sun 26/5, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Payne Haas FTS & LTS @ $51 on Neds
Jock Madden FTS @ $29 on Neds
Jordan Riki FTS & LTS @ $26 on Dabble
Game Day Pick: Kobe Hetherington FTS 2nd Half @ $51 on Sportsbet
We nailed Fisher-Harris at $67 last night, hopefully Haas gets it done for us today!
Wicky’s Game Day Preview Sun 26/5 – Our game day pick Hetherington is still $51 to score the first try in the 2nd half against a significantly depleted Titans outfit. He’s got a great running style and with Foran 100% ruled out – we think it’ll be one way traffic on a flat track in a 2pm game at Suncorp! On this note – Riki is still $26 for FTS and LTS on Dabble, Madden is $29 on Neds and Bet Right for FTS.
Payne Haas is now $41 for FTS and LTS on 365 and Dabble. We still like this play – he scored a try 3 weeks ago and has been destructive when running the ball, even running sideways and looking to break the line. We nailed Fisher-Harris at $67 last night, hopefully Haas gets it done for us today!
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Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Warriors v Dolphins
Sun 26/5, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Max Plath FTS & LTS @ $41 on Dabble + Sportsbet
Jeremy Marshall-King 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $17 on Neds
Game Day Picks: Josh Kerr FTS 2nd Half @ $41 on Bet Right
Wicky’s Game Day Preview Sun 26/5 – Have you watched Josh Kerr this season? 2 tries, 3 linebreaks, averaging 111 run metres and we could probably count another 2-3 times he’s had the ball over the line or been inches away from scoring! Against a Warriors side missing AFB, CNK, Tohu, SJ, Egan, Berry, Capewell – we LOVE this game day pick.
Marshall-King against this depleted Wahs outfit, especially scheming around the ruck.. luckily the price is still the same on Neds, $17 for him to score any of the first 3 tries is just ridiculous! Same goes for Max Plath – he looked elite as a tackle busting, agile middle. He already scored two tries in a game once this season! All we want from his time is a sneaky FTS or LTS – both at $41s!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Bulldogs v Dragons
Thu 23/5, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jack Bird FTS @ $26 on Neds
Jacob Preston LTS @ $26 on Dabble
Jaydn Su’A 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $12 on Neds
Viliame Kikau 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $8.25 on Neds
Game Day Pick: Ben Hunt FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Wicky Game Day Preview Thu 23/5 – We’ve added Ben Hunt at $34 for FTS and LTS on Bet365 as our game day pick. He’s scored the first try one in every 20 games he’s played! Last game before Origin selections – you know he’ll be up for this one! He’s below $30 everywhere else for these markets.
Our original picks are all at the same price. Kikau and Su’A have been in great form this season – Su’a is less than $30 everywhere for FTS, so it’s clear value at $12s. Kikau is based more on his form but the price is also a clear standout.
Bird is on the Dragons’ right edge which we mentioned scores 67% of their tries in 2024 in our left v right edge breakdown article. Most bookies have him around the $20 mark – another one we think is a nice price to start the round!
Preston should play out the game on the edge – he scored a try after coming on just last week! We like the $26s for LTS for him. He can chase a grubber as we saw last week but he’s also a great hole runner.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Cowboys v West Tigers
Fri 24/5, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Griffin Neame FTS @ $51 on Betr and LTS @ $51 on Sportsbet
Justin Matamua FTS @ $71 on Bet Right, $67 on Pointsbet
Game Day Pick:
Reece Robson FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $51 on Dabble
Reuben Cotter FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Wicky Game Day Preview – Fri 24/5 – We’ve added Robson, Utoikmanu and Cotter as game day picks for a combination of market value (way better price on one bookie than others) or their career strike rates. Robson and Cotter have looked great this season – Robson may be fighting for an Origin jersey too! Utoikamanu’s only scored 1 try this season but in Api’s 200th, we’re confident he’ll send one of his middles over – hopefully it’s big Stefano!
Neame is $48 for FTS on Topsport now and $51 for LTS on Sportsbet. He was a freak FTS2H scorer when he was a benchie – we think this could be the game he announces himself as a gun starting middle forward by crashing over first (or last)! Matamua is still $67 for FTS on Pointsbet – he’s scored 2 tries in 4 reserve grade games this season. We’re hoping Api puts him over early.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Sea Eagles v Storm
Fri 24/5, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tui Kamikamica FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365, Neds & Dabble
Harry Grant FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Game Day Pick: Haumole Olakau’atu ATS @ $3.55 on Bet Right ($3.50 TAB)
Wicky Game Day Preview – Fri 24/5 – We’ve added Olakau’atu anytime try scorer as our game day pick. If you priced him at his career strike rate – it’d be $2.83. We think Hughes won’t play and that means 3 of the 4 spine players are out for the Storm. Back at Brooky too – it’s setup perfectly for DCE to go nuts on that right edge!
Kamikamica is still $51 for FTS and LTS across Neds, Dabble and Sportsbet. He crashed over first last week with our Premium members winning over 140/1 worth of bets because of it! Grant’s great at putting middle forwards over the line – he did the same thing with Welch late last year.
He’s also a great try scorer himself – Grant is still $26 for FTS and LTS on TAB. With 2 and maybe 3 of the spine missing, we can see Grant wanting to put his mark on this game. Aloiai’s prices are still the same – he scores a try every 9.8 games, which puts him just above average/normal in terms of strike rate for middle forwards. We think this is a juicy price for a game at Brooky v a depleted Storm side.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Raiders v Roosters
Sat 25/5, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Brandon Smith FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Emre Guler FTS @ $81 on Pointsbet, LTS @ $71 on Sportsbet
Joseph Tapine FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet Right & Neds
Ata Mariota FTS2H @ $81 on Neds
Game Day Picks:
Luke Keary FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Tom Starling LTS @ $67 on Neds and Bet365
Wicky’s Game Day Preview Sat 25/5 – We’ve added Keary and Starling as game day picks – Keary is in the mid-late $20s on most bookies, clear value for an in-form player. Starling’s been coming on to play hooker for the last 30 minutes of most games for the Raiders, should be priced around $41-51 max. Clear value.
Brandon Smith is down to $34 for FTS and LTS which we still like! Tapine and Mariota are still at the same price – we love Tapine especially in his 200th game! Mariota could fill in on an edge if there’s an injury for the Raiders but we do generally like the $81 for him to crash over early in the 2nd half as he’s named on the bench.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Sharks v Panthers
Sat 25/5, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
James Fisher-Harris FTS @ $67 on Neds (This won at $67s!!)
Isaah Yeo FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365 and Sportsbet
Mitchell Kenny 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $26 on Neds
Scott Sorenson 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds
Blayke Brailey 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 on Neds
Game Day Picks: James Fisher-Harris LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Wicky’s Game Day Preview Sat 25/5 – James Fisher-Harris is now $67 for both FTS and LTS on 365, the LTS part is our game day pick. We’ve seen Twal and Jake Trbojevic score this weekend – hopefully it’s a sign we see more middle forward tries! On that note – Yeo is still $51 for FTS and LTS, he scored last weekend too.
Our three ‘1st, 2nd or 3rd try’ picks on Neds are still almost the same price (Kenny into $23, but still great value). Sorenson should plug into Garner’s spot on the left edge next to Luai – Garner’s been in great try scoring form in recent weeks, we love the $14s here. Brailey and Kenny are purely plays on the numbers.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Rabbitohs v Eels
Sat 25/5, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Davvy Moale FTS @ $67 on Neds
Damien Cook FTS & LTS @ $34 on Sportsbet and Dabble
Shaun Lane 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $13 on Neds
Kelma Tuilagi LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Game Day Picks: Raegan Campbell-Gillard FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Wicky’s Game Day Preview Sat 25/5 – We’ve added RCG at $67 for FTS and LTS as our game day pick. He’s likely out of favour for Blues selection but a strong game definitely wouldn’t hurt! Both teams have lost their coaches and we don’t see much defensive resolve in either. Moale is at the same price ($67 for FTS) – we love his running style, hopefully he crashes over first in this one.
Cook has actually gone out to $41 for FTS and LTS which is the price we actually tipped to our Premium members early in the week! He scored last for us at $51 so we absolutely love this pick.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
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