Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 12 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round.
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Bulldogs v Titans
Sun 21/5, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Joe Stimson FTS @ $51 on Pointsbet
Moeaki Fotuaika FTS @ $101 on Neds
Max King FTS @ $101 on Sportsbet
Tino Fa’asumaleuai ATS @ $7.25 on Sportsbet + FTS @ $51 on Sportsbet
Update Sun 21/5 – For the First Try Scorer (FTS) market – Stimson is still $51 on Neds, Fotuaika & King are $101 on Neds. Stimson is still decent value at $41 or above, Fotuaika and King need to be $81 at least to be decent value. Tino is now $6.75 to score anytime on Sportsbet – it’s gone from being a good value to OK value. He’s now $51 to score the first try which we like more than the $6.75 ATS.
Tino Faasumaleuai has scored a try every 5.4 NRL games in his 81 NRL games. That’s good enough to have him in the top tier of middle forward try scorers with Josh Papali’i & Cam Murray! The Dogs’ pack is decimated – so we love the $51 to score the first try. Anything around $7 to score anytime is also clear value (compared to his career strike rate would have him at $5.40). Most bookies have him at $6 or less to score anytime and $41 or less to score the first try.
Joe Stimson is our model’s favourite pick for value in the first try scorer market today. Our model’s priced him at $31 to score the first try, most bookies have him at $38 or less & we’re getting $51 on Neds! Moe Fotuaika is paying $101 to score the first try today on Neds. The Dogs’ pack only has Pangai Junior & Max King as recognised NRL middle forwards. It’s no surprise to see why we like Fotuaika at $101.
According to the Supercoach Guns Try Map – the Bulldogs and Titans have conceded the most tries (6) in the middle of the field in 2023. Max King has been around $91-101 to score the first try against the Titans. With the Titans pack far stronger than the Dogs, we much prefer Tino and Fotuaika. However, we’d suggest a small stake on Max King also given the stats do show both teams concede middle forward tries.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Raiders v Manly
Sun 25/5, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Elliott Whitehead ATS @ $6.25 on Sportsbet & Betr
Josh Papali’i ATS @ $8.50 on Sportsbet & Betr
Taniela Paseka FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Emre Guler FTS2H @ $61 on Pointsbet
Karl Lawton FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet
Jamal Fogarty ATS @ $6.75 & FTS @ $41 on Betr
Update Sun 21/5 – For the anytime try scorer market – Josh Papali’i is now $8-8.25 on Sportsbet and Betr, which we still like. Elliott Whitehead is still $6.25 on Betr and Sportsbet. Taniela Paseka is still $81 for first & last try scorer (2 separate bets) on Bet365. Emre Guler is still $61 on Pointsbet to score the first try in the 2nd half (FTS2H).
Josh Papali’i is THE best try scoring middle forward since 2016. His strike rate in that time converted to betting odds would be $5 – he scores a try in every 5 games he plays. The Raiders are favourites in this one and we can still find him at over $8 to score a try today. He’s paying around $5.50-7 on most other bookies.
Elliot Whitehead is our favourite anytime try scorer play for the day. Our model and his career strike rate would price him around $5 to score today. Most bookies have him around $4-5.40. It’s clear to see why the $6.25 is clear value for him to score against Manly.
These last two picks are based more on the players’ running styles and getting them at a good price before they score a try this season and the value’s gone. Emre Guler has scored 5 tries in last 45 NRL games. He’ll be fresh early in the 2nd half, running at the Sea Eagles’ bench forwards Bullemor, Fainu & Lawton. As you can see – they aren’t big name NRL players. We love the matchup here for Guler.
Taniela Paseka is averaging 140 run metres, 2 tackle breaks a game and had a line break in an impressive performance last week. His running style is suited to try scoring – we love him at $81 to score the first or last try today.
Update – Fogarty and Lawton are late value plays. Lawton is $51 or less on other bookies and has been playing dummy half off the bench for Manly. Fogarty is good model value at those prices.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Broncos v Panthers
Thu 18/5, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Payne Haas First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $71 on Topsport & Sportsbet + Last Try Scorer (LTS) @ $67 on Bet365.
Isaah Yeo Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $10 on Betr & Sportsbet
Mitchell Kenny & Moses Leota FTS @ $67 on Neds
Cory Paix FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $81 on Neds
Update 18/5 6pm – Haas is decent value as long as he’s $67 or better. He’s no longer $71 on Topsport & Sportsbet but he’s $67 on Bet365 & Neds to score the first try. Yeo is now $10.50-11 on Sportsbet & Betr. Kenny & Leota are still $67 to score the first try on Neds. Paix is still $81 to score the first try in the 2nd half on Neds.
Payne Haas is leading the Dally M count this season and has been excellent for the Broncos. His career strike rate and our model would suggest his odds are $30 and $88 respectively. Most bookies have him around the $67 mark to score the first try. We’ve now added him as a value play to score the last try at $67 also. Adam Reynolds is out for the Broncos and the Panthers are 8 point favourites. However, the game is being played at Suncorp, Haas has been in dominant form and the Panthers have conceded a few tries through the middle of the field in 2023 according to NRL Supercoach Guns’ stats. Isaah Yeo is priced at $7 or less to score anytime by most bookies. Our model and his career strike rate suggests his price should be around $8. So the $10-11 on Sportsbet & Betr seem like clear value plays for him to score anytime. This is a four point game for these teams at the top of the ladder and with Leniu missing, Yeo will need to play bulk minutes to counteract Haas & Carrigan. We love this as a number and the matchup.
Cory Paix scored a try in the 77th minute of the Broncos’ game last Round against the Storm. We’d tipped him to be the first try scorer in the 2nd half but unfortunately there was a try four minutes before that. He’s now $81 this week. Clear to see why we like the price. Most bookies have him at $61 or less. Mitchell Kenny is priced at $50 by our model & no bookie has him priced over that mark other than Neds who have him at $67 to score the first try. Not the most dynamic player but we love the price on offer here. Whereas Moses Leota has scored the first in a game in 2 of his last 52 games during the Panthers’ dominant run. The numbers don’t support him as much as Kenny, but the ‘eye test’ sure does!
Dragons v Roosters
Fri 19/5, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Drew Hutchison FTS & LTS @ $34 on Dabble
Blake Lawrie FTS @ $101 on Neds
Josh Kerr FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $67 on Neds & TAB
Update Fri 19/5 – Hutchison has now been crunched into $23 on Dabble. He’s still $29 on Betr & Sportsbet for the First Try Scorer (FTS) market which is OK but the $34 was clear value. Lawrie is still $101 to score the first try on Neds. Kerr is still $67 to score the first try on Neds & TAB.
Blake Lawrie has only scored 3 tries in 114 NRL games. However, two of those have come in 2023. The Dragons have a caretaker coach and go into this game with Liddle and Lomax returning and Ben Hunt back to his favoured position in the halves. They scored the first try through a middle forward, although heartbreakingly it was Jack de Belin that got over. He’s priced around $60-90 by our model and most bookies, we think the $101 is a decent price in a game where we expect the Dragons to get closer than the betting line (6.5) suggests.
Josh Kerr should get 30 minutes either side of half-time. The stats don’t support this, but he’s one of our favourite plays to score the first try in the 2nd half. We would have loved this bet at $81-101 but the $67 is still decent value for Kerr to get over early in the 2nd half. With a new coach and some renewed enthusiasm, this will be a juicy play to follow in the second half – especially if you think the Dragons can get a second wind for their 2023 season!
Rabbitohs v Eels
Fri 19/5, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Sean Russell ATS @ $3 on Betr + FTS @ $17 on Topsport (This WON! Russell scored the first try)
Lachlan Ilias ATS @ $6 on Betr
Wiremu Greig FTS @ $91 on Sportsbet
Tevita Tatola FTS @ $81 on Sportsbet
Update Fri 19/5 – Greig is still $91 to score the first try on Sportsbet. Russell is $3 to score a try and $15-16 to score first on Sportsbet & Betr. Tatola is $67 or less on most sites to score the first try – we only like him at around $71 or higher.
Sean Russell should be priced around $2.25-2.40 if you by our model and his career strike rate. Most bookies have him around $2.50-2.90. The Eels are 8 point underdogs to a red hot Rabbitohs outfit and prefer their left edge in attack. We’re going to stick to our guns here and trust our model and his career strike rate – the $3 for a winger to score anytime in what should be a relatively close game seems a good play. The $15-17 for him to score first is a value play also (priced at $12 by our model).
Our model and his career strike rate would suggest Lachlan Ilias should be paying around $5-5.40. The Rabbitohs have actually scored more tries on their right this year, which would surprise most fans with Alex Johnston being on the left wing for the Rabbits. Most bookies have him at $5 or less to score anytime but Sportsbet & Betr have him at $6-6.25. We love the number and also the matchup, he’s potentially running at Cartwright & Simonsson on the Parramatta left edge.
We’ve had Wiremu Greig in our Punter’s Preview article for the last couple of weeks. We think he’s going to score plenty of tries in the NRL for years to come. He’s been really impressive over the last couple of weeks especially – settling into the starting gig at Parra. He’s priced around $60-75 by most bookies to score the first try today. Considering his running style & the clear price difference, you can see why we love the $91 for him to crash over first.
Sharks v Knights
Sat 20/5, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Daniel Saifiti FTS @ $91 on Sportsbet
Jackson Hastings FTS @ $81 on Neds
Jack Hetherington FTS @ $126 on Sportsbet
Jacob Saifiti FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet
Matt Croker FTS2H @ $101 on TAB
Update Sat 20/5 – For the First Try Scorer (FTS) market – Dan Saifiti is still $91, Hetherington is still $126 (Sportsbet) & Hastings is still $81 (Neds). For the first try scorer 2nd half market, Jacob Saifiti is still $81 and Croker is now $91 on Sporsbet (down from $101, we think $81 and over is fine to play).
The Knights blitzed the Titans in the second half last week with a KP special just before Origin. The Sharks failed to put Manly away and almost conceded a late try which would have drawn the game! We’re obviously on a few Knights try scorers here – we think they can put up a better fight than the 8.5 line suggests (Sharks favourites). If you are new to try scorer punting – please check out our explainer article and remember to start with small stakes on these high odds plays. Ideally you want to set a small bank roll, manage your stakes so you can ride the highs and lows for 2-4 weeks. Also join our free Discord community – we’ve just hit 2,000 users who can help you out.
Daniel Saifiti has scored a try in 7 of his last 63 games since 2020. That puts him in the second tier of middle forward try scorers (the top tier score a try ever 4-7 games). The model and historical odds don’t support this play but we think the Knights pack can match it with a Sharks pack missing Rudolf and McInnes. He’s priced around $67-81 on most bookies, we think the $91 is a good value play for Daniel to crash over first in this game.
Jackson Hastings is priced between $51-61 by most bookies and our model. Neds have him at $81 to score the first try. Clear value compared to our model (‘model value) and way better priced than the 2nd best bookie price (‘market value). This is a case of playing the number – a halfback at $81s! Another example of playing the number is Jack Hetherington. He’s been playing well for the Knights and we think $126 is a great price for him to crash over first. All other bookies have him between $67-81. We don’t think he’ll score many tries in his career, but just like earlier this season when we tipped Josh King at $151 to score the first try – sometimes when the number gets high enough, it’s worth a small stake!
For the first try scorer 2nd half market (FTS2H) – Jacob Saifiti is our favourite play in this game. He’s priced at $81 to crash over first in the 2nd half on Sportsbet. Anything at $67 or above is OK for Jacob here (Betr & TAB have him at $67). Jacob’s already scored the FTS2H twice in his 126 NRL games. We love the matchup here against a Sharks pack missing McInnes and Rudolf and have Uele returning from injury.
Matt Croker is now $91 to score the FTS2H – he’s already scored two tries in his first 27 NRL games, one of which was the FTS2H. He loves chasing a grubber (one or maybe both of his tries have been like this) and is a strong ball runner also. Priced around $67-81 on most sites, we love the $91 on offer here.
Tigers v Cowboys
Sat 20/5, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS @ $61 on Sportsbet (This got up! Stefano scored the first try)
Jake Granville FTS2H @ $81 on Neds
Jack Gosiewski FTS @ $34 on Bet365 (Don’t play this now – he’s benched. LTS @ $41 on Bet365 is a really good play)
Update Sat 20/5 – Stefano Utoikamanu is now $67 to score the first try on Sportsbet! Granville is still $81 to score the first try in the 2nd half (FTS2H). Gosiewski is still $34 to score the first try. We didn’t include Last Try Scorer (LTS) incase Luciano Leilua is on the edge by then and Gosiewski’s off.
Stefano Utoikamanu is in the top tier of try scoring middle forwards – he scores a try every 6 NRL games he plays. He’s scored one this season but we absolutely love the $67 on Sportsbet for him to score first against a weakened Cowboys pack. Most bookies have him at $31-51. Jack Gosiewski has scored two tries in the last two weeks and is priced between $15-27 by our model and most bookies to score the first try. The $34 on Bet365 is an obvious outlier for him to score the first try against the Tigers tonight.
Jake Granville has played most positions on the field for the Cowboys this year. The ‘Mr Fix It’ is priced at $38 or less by most bookies to score the FTS2H. You can see why we think the $81 is clear value on Neds.
Dolphins v Storm
Sat 20/5, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tom Gilbert FTS @ $81 on Sportsbet
Jesse Bromwich FTS @ $101 on Sportsbet
Felise Kaufusi ATS @ $9.5 on Betr
Jarrod Wallace FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet
Herman Ese’ese FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet
Update Sat 20/5 – This is probably our favourite game of the weekend for value try scorers. Felise Faufusi is now $10 on Betr to score a try anytime ($9.50 on Sportsbet). Tom Gilbert is $91 to score the first try on Sportsbet. For the First Try Scorer 2nd half (FTS2H) market – Wallace is $71 and Ese’ese is $91. We think Gilbert (FTS) and Wallace (FTS2H) are fine to play at $71 or above. Ese’ese at $81 or above. We’ve also added Jesse Bromwich at $101 to score the first try (on Sportsbet) against his old side.
Let’s look at the first try scorer market first. Tom Gilbert isn’t higher than $51 on any other bookie, whereas Jesse Bromwich is $81 or less. We’re getting them at $91 and $101 respectively. Gilbert is close to our high odds play of the week – he gets ‘three green lights’ on our odds comparison tool as he’s a great price compared to our model, his career strike rate (historical) and way better priced than the 2nd best bookie. Jesse comes up against his old side and has scored a try in 10 of his 101 NRL games since 2019.
Felise Kaufusi at $10 to score a try on an edge for the Dolphins against his old side is great value. Our model, his historical strike rate and most bookies have him priced between $6.88 and $7.25. You don’t get such clear value in players who aren’t middle forwards for the anytime try scorer market.
For the FTS2H market – Wallace and Ese’ese off the bench are excellent options at $71 and $91 respectively on Sportsbet currently. In Round 8, we’d tipped Mark Nicholls to score the first try of the 2nd half successfully at $101. Nicholls was also a tip at $67 – he scored the next try! Since 2020, Wallace has scored in 10 of his 67 games – he’s close to being a ‘Tier 1’ middle scoring forward. Ese’ese has scored 8 tries in his 114 NRL games which isn’t that impressive – but 3 of them have been FTS2H. They are both priced at $67 or less by most other bookies.
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