Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Magic Round in the 2024 NRL season. We hit Tyson Gamble at 41s for first try scorer in Knights v Warriors in Round 9!
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We’re back. Hazelton and Cook in back to back games at $41 and $51 – Wicky goes huge in Magic Round 2 years in a row 😍 Best part is – there are 3 games to go!
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— Wicky (@wickyai) May 19, 2024
Warriors v Panthers
Sun 19/5, 1.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mavrik Geyer LTS @ $51 on Dabble
Game Day Picks:
James Fisher-Harris FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Isaah Yeo ATS @ $9 on Pointsbet
Jacob Laban LTS @ $67 on Neds and Dabble
Wicky Preview Sun 19/5 – We’ve gone with Laban as our roughie at $67 to score last. With Barnett named to start – we expect Laban to move to the edge in the 2nd half as Barnett moves to the middle (Tohu Harris is out – there’s a void there). Even with the Wahs such big outsiders and no SJ – $67 for a 2nd rower is an insane price.
On that note – Harris missing means the Warriors ruck will be even weaker. They haven’t won a game for 5 weeks and no SJ and Harris – we love JFH to crash over first or last at $51 (clear value – $41 or less on all other bookies) and Yeo to score anytime at $9 (our model and all other bookies have this at $6.50 or less).
Our only original pick will be void with Geyer moved outside of the 17 in the 14 hour update.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Storm v Eels
Sun 19/5, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Reagan Campbell-Gillard FTS @ $81 on Pointsbet + LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Shaun Lane 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $16 on Neds
Kelma Tuilagi LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Game Day Pick:
Joey Lussick FTS & LTS @ $51 on Dabble
Jack Howarth LTS @ $34 on Dabble and Bet365
Wicky Preview Sun 19/5 – RCG at $81 and $67 for FTS and LTS is a great price. We saw two props and a hooker score last on Saturday in Magic Round – maybe the Suncorp surface is as heavy as it looks and it’ll suit more middle forward tries late! Lussick’s already scored first from dummy half once this year. We love the $51 on Dabble for him for FTS and LTS. Shaun Lane is now $13 (down from $16) to score any of the first three tries – it’s still a good price, running at the Storm’s right edge with no Jahrome Hughes.
Tuilagi should play out the game on the edge – $67 is an insane price for what should be around $41. All the value is with Parra in this game but if you want to build multis around Storm players – read our left v right edge breakdown preview. Same thought process with Howarth at $34 – he came close to scoring at the end of the game last week on the left edge, where he’ll likely come on for Blore again.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Wests Tigers v Dolphins
Sun 19/5, 6.25pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Alex Seyfarth FTS @ $41 on Dabble and on Bet365
Samuela Fainu FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365 and Pointsbet
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $51 on Pointsbet
Game Day Picks:
Fonua Pole LTS @ $81 on Bet365, FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet
Connelly Lemuelu LTS @ $34 on Dabble
Asu Kepaoa LTS @ $41 on Dabble
Wicky Preview Sun 19/5 – Our game day picks include Kepaoa and Lemuelu who should play out the game on the edge – should be priced in the mid 20s, not $34-41 as per our tips. Clear value. Fonua Pole is a bit of a roughie – but we love the $81 for someone who’s scored 6 tries in 31 games since the start of 2023! With no Bateman and Papali’i – we think he should get a second stint towards the end of the game. If he’s on – $81s is crazy value. The $61 for FTS in the 2nd half is a great price as he’ll almost definitely be on given he’s named to start off the bench currently.
Our original picks are all at the same price. Our thinking was we loved Seyfarth and Fainu at those prices on the edge. And Utoikamanu is one of the best middle forwards for try scoring in the NRL. He’ll know there’s an Origin spot on the line and with Api Koroisau’s game style being to play close to the middle of the field – we love him even more this year!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Raiders v Bulldogs
Fri 17/5, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Joseph Tapine FTS @ $67 on Neds and on Bet Right
Viliame Kikau 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $9 on Neds
Game Day Pick: Ethan Strange FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Wicky Preview Thurs 16/5 – Jacob Preston is back for the Bulldogs and the Raiders get Rapana back – should be an entertaining game! We’ve done our analysis on where both teams score their tries which you can check out here. Kikau has been on fire this season, he’s now $8.75 on Neds to score any of the first three tries but we still love this price – he’s $21 at most for FTS! Tapine is still $67 to score first on Neds. His career try scoring stats don’t put him in the top tier but he’s a beast of a player and the Raiders’ pack is definitely the area where they have an advantage in this one.
Our game day pick Ethan Strange has made 4 linebreaks but only registered 1 try this season. He’s got a Wighton style running game and with the Raiders getting Rapana back at Fullback – we can see them having a super direct game plan. Strange’s running game suits this perfectly. He’s under $30 for FTS and LTS on most bookies.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
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Manly v Broncos
Fri 17/5, 8.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Taniela Paseka FTS @ $101 on Neds, LTS @ $81 on Bet365, Neds
Josh Aloiai FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Luke Brooks 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $16 on Neds
Game Day Pick: Haumole Olakau’atu FTS & LTS @ $23 on Pointsbet
Wicky Preview Thurs 16/5 – Paseka and Aloiai are both now $81 for FTS and LTS on Bet365. We still love this price, especially now that Reece Walsh is out for the Broncos and it should be a much closer game! Brooks is into $14 to score any of the first three tries on Neds – but again, this is due to the Walsh news. His running game has been impressive this year and on the big stage at Suncorp on the opening night of Magic Round – we can see him going through from an offload or chasing a grubber to score early in the game!
Our game day pick Olakau’atu is fresh coming off a 2 week suspension and will be running at a Broncos’ left edge with Cobbo moved to Fullback and a rookie (Karapani) defending at left centre. He’s around $15-20 on most bookies for FTS and LTS.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Titans v Knights
Sat 18/5, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Dylan Lucas FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Game Day Pick:
Kai Pearce-Paul LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Wicky Preview Sat 18/5 – Both teams are missing key players (including Foran and Ponga) so we think this game is going to be super unpredictable. In saying that – we love the price for Lucas and KPP here. Frizell has been named but he is coming into the game with an injury cloud – regardless, KPP should get time on the edge in the 2nd half.
KPP is $34 for LTS on 365, unfortunately Lucas is only $21 at most for FTS and LTS on Bet365 – which is close to fair price.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Sharks v Roosters
Sat 18/5, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Cameron McInnes FTS & LTS @ $51 on Neds, Dabble and Pointsbet
Tom Hazelton FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365 (This won – Hazelton scored last!)
Blayke Brailey 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 on Neds
Game Day Picks:
Nat Butcher FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Oregon Kaufusi FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Wicky Preview Sat 18/5 – We’ve added Nat Butcher and Oregon Kaufusi as game day picks. Nat should be at $30 or below according to our model and other bookies – he’s also next to Sam Walker who’s in great form. Oregon is a more interesting one. He’s scored tries in his last 2 games – unusual for a middle forward. He’s played 57, 45 and 60 minutes in the last 3 games. Averaging just under 100 run metres and breaking 12 tackles during this time!
Our original picks – Hazelton, McInnes and Brailey are all still the same prices. We spoke about the Sharks’ middle forwards scoring 8 tries in the last 3 weeks in our left v right edge breakdown. Brailey is $41 or less for FTS on most bookies and the $19 is incredible value for him to score any of the first three tries!
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Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Rabbitohs v Cowboys
Sat 18/5, 7.45pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Damien Cook FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365 (This won! Cook scored last at $51s)
Keaon Koloamatangi 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on Neds
Griffin Neame FTS & LTS @ $51 on Dabble
Game Day Pick: Kulikefu Finefeuiaki LTS @ $34 on Dabble
Wicky Preview Sat 18/5 – These teams have not won a game for over a month. Both have enough strike on paper but just don’t know how to defend. Our edge v edge breakdown highlights how good Alex Johnston is as a try scorer pick today – it got even better with Feldt since ruled out (his opposing winger).
Our game day pick is an obvious one – Finefeuiaki should play the end of the game on the left edge for Luki, who’s returning from injury. $34 for him LTS is nuts – Luki is $20-23 for FTS to give you an idea of the range this should be priced at.
Neame and Koloamatangi are still the same price for their markets too. Keaon is $14 to score any of the first three tries – fair price would be max $10-11. We rattle off Neame’s try scoring stats most weeks so we won’t do that again – but let’s hope he stamps his mark as a starting Prop today and crashes over first!
Damien Cook is still $51 for FTS and LTS on Bet365.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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