It’s finals footy time and we’ve been on a red hot run so we’re pumped to preview the two blockbuster games this weekend. In week one of the finals we tipped Tom Gilbert to score the first try at $91 after he was named to start on an edge an hour before the game. In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best NRL Finals value plays across try scorer & player performance markets. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!
Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!
Casually hitting at $91 FTS play in the #NRLFinals#NRL #rugbyleague #sportsbet #NRLSharksCowboys https://t.co/f3nV1l75mO
— Wicky (@wickyai) September 10, 2022
Panthers v Eels
Sunday 2nd October, 7.30pm
Try Scorer Tips
Nathan Cleary FTS 2nd Half @ $26 & 1st or Last try @ $15 on TAB
Raegan Campbell-Gillard/Junior Paulo FTS @ $81-91 on Sportsbet & Topsport
Moses Leota FTS, 2nd TS & LTS @ $67 on TAB
James Fisher-Harris FTS & LTS @ $67 on TAB
Izack Tago FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $17 on TAB
Shaun Lane FTS2H @ $41 on TAB on TAB
Nathan Cleary has scored the last try in 7 of his last 61 NRL games from Round 1, 2020 which includes his try in the 77th minute last weekend against the Rabbitohs. We’ve found a great price for him on TAB which includes him scoring the first OR the last try @ $15. It’s under the ‘What are the odds’ section on TAB. He’s also $26 to score the first try in the 2nd half on TAB, clearly better than the $21 or less he is on most other bookies.
Izack Tago & Shaun Lane are priced 10-20% higher to score the first try in the 2nd half compared to their FTS odds on TAB. Tago has scored in 10 of his 25 games this season including scoring the first try in the 2nd half 3 times. Lane has been in incredible form and if the Eels are to challenge the Panthers, he’ll need to be a threat on the Eels’ left edge with Dylan Brown. We love the $17 & $41 respectively for Tago and Lane to score first in the 2nd half.
Given it’s been raining in Sydney throughout the week, we don’t love any anytime try scorer plays for the Grand Final. Both sides have had their middle forwards scoring tries throughout the finals series so we think the $67-91 odds for both sides’ middle forwards are decent value. We’ve listed the best ways to bet on them in our tips above but RCG coming off two tries last weekend especially is a great value play to get over at $81 or above!
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
Clive Churchill Medal Value Picks
Brian To’o @ $51 on Sportsbet
Viliame Kikau @ $34 on Bet365
The Panthers are strong favourites to win back to back premierships and we can’t dispute that. If you’re looking for a value option aside from Cleary, Edwards & Yeo for the Clive Churchill Medal, we think Brian To’o & Viliame Kikau are the two best options. These teams have played a few tight games in the last couple of seasons. With the rain around Sydney and it being a Grand Final, most punters are expecting another tight contest. We think this actually helps To’o & Kikau. To’o runs for over 200 metres in most Origin contests or NRL finals games. If he can run for over 250 metres and jag a try, we think he’d be in the top 3 players if the Panthers win a close game.
Similarly with Kikau, in a close game, he just needs one or two big plays on the left edge with Luai and Tago on either side of him. There’s also the storyline of him moving on from the Panthers after this season. We are relying on Nathan Cleary not scoring a try or assist most likely. But if this does happen, we think To’o & Kikau at the price listed above are a reasonable shot to get the Medal.
NRL Draftstars Advice
There are four players rated 8-10/10 in our value ratings that we think would be great to build your lineup around. Clint Gutherson, Reed Mahoney, Brian To’o & Viliame Kikau. To’o consistently runs for over 200 metres and with Taylan May missing, we think he’s almost guaranteed to surpass the 44 points our model has him projected for. Reed Mahoney’s tackle count in close finals games makes him a great value pick – averaging above 50 tackles and 50 DFS points in the two close games the Eels have played out of their last three finals. Gutherson is priced at $11,260 and we just can’t see the heart and soul of Parramatta getting many less than the 40 points our model has him projected for. He’ll be in everything and on what’s expected to be a greasy surface, we think he’s likely to get a few tackle breaks to crack the 40 points our model has him projected for. Viliame Kikau is our tip for the Clive Churchill Medal at $26 and we also think he’s one of the best picks in the $60,000 Draftstars contest. In his last game for the Panthers, Kikau will be looking to make his presence felt in both attack and defence. Although we’ve chosen Gutherson and Kikau in our value picks, they both have ceiling ranges over 70 as well. We can definitely see Kikau lighting it up on the Panthers’ left edge one last time to score closer to his ceiling range of 70 than our projected score for him (47).
There are ten players with a ceiling range above 70 points in this contest. There are four clear standouts in Cleary, Papali’i, Moses & Dylan Brown. Panthers are the clear favourites in this contest so if you wanted to choose a contrarian team, we love the idea of picking the other three players with a standout ceiling range. You can still make a reasonable team with Papali’i, Moses & Dylan Brown as premium picks in your lineup. Although if you were only make one lineup, we’d highly recommend going with Nathan Cleary. Playing in his third straight Grand Final and scoring 104 and 88 DFS points in his last two games, he’s almost a must-have. If you’re struggling with your salary cap after choosing Cleary then Niukore, Staines & Kenny are three picks under $10k that should score 25-35 points to round out your team.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
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