In a unique scenario, the AFL Grand Final will be played on the same weekend as the NRL Preliminary finals. As fans, we’re not complaining! The Rabbitohs play Many on Friday night and the Storm play the Panthers at 4pm on Saturday, which leads into the AFL Grand Final at 715pm. We’ve had a detailed look at both NRL Prelims & a look at the First Goal Scorer & Norm Smith Medal for the best & fairest in the AFL Grand Final.
Storm v Panthers
Saturday 25th September 4PM
First Try Scorer
Brandon Smith @ $18 on Sportsbet. Brandon Smith has had a ridiculous try scoring strike rate in 2021. He’s scored the first try in 7 of 23 games and to further improve his chances, the Panthers are missing Moses Leota and have To’o & Kikau in doubt as well.
Anytime Try Scorer
Jahrome Hughes @ 3.75 on SB & TAB. The Storm are well rested, have been in excellent form & Hughes is great value according to our model & his historical try scoring strike rate.
First Try Scorer 2nd Half
Tevita Pangai Junior @ $67 on TAB. We think the Storm will win comfortably so this bet is more of a gut-instinct play. ‘TPJ’ scored two tries in the middle of the field after joining the Panthers late in the season. He’s priced around $34 for this market across most other sites, so getting $67 for a dynamic player who will be fresh early in the second half is a great value play.
Last Try Scorer
Apisai Koroisau @ $67 on Bet365. Our model has him priced at $57 to score the first try, and that takes in to consideration the fact that they are playing the Storm and are 10 point underdogs. We’re suggesting him as a last try scorer option as the game might be out of their reach by then so the Storm might be resting players so the $67 seems like an even better value play. He’s priced around $41-51 across most other sites.
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Saturday 25th September 715PM
We’ve done the hard yards and shown you where you can find the best odds in the photos below. Feel free to let us know on Twitter or Instagram who you think will win the Norm Smith & score the first goal!
Rabbitohs v Sea Eagles
Friday 24th September, 750PM
First Try Scorer
Cam Murray @ $31 on TAB. Cam Murray has stepped up as a leader in the Rabbitohs pack this season and they’ll need him to lead from the front if they are to progress to the Grand Final. His odds would be less than $17 if you went by his career strike rate of scoring the first try and we’re willing to back him in to sneak over early in the game.
Anytime Try Scorer
Alex Johnston @ $1.85 on TAB. Our model has him priced at $1.50, so the $1.85 availably is excellent value. He’s scored in 14/20 games this season and if the Rabbitohs can play to their potential, he’s their most lethal weapon in attack on their left edge.
First Try Scorer 2nd Half
Taniela Paseka @ $81 on TAB. Paseka is an absolute beast coming off the bench for Manly, so this tip is based more so on his playing style than his numbers so far in his career. If he comes off the bench, as he has been, he’ll be fresh just after half time and the $81 is a tempting price for a player of Paseka’s calibre.
Last Try Scorer
Reuben Garrick @ $13 on Bet365. Our model has Garrick priced at $10.50 to score the first try. So the $13 on offer is a great price, we just liked Cam Murray to get over early so Garrick is the tip for last try scorer. If you think Tom Trbojevic can continue his 2021 form, this is an excellent value play!