We had a cracking start to the NRL Finals, correctly predicting Matt Ikuvalu & Enari Tuala to score the first try. With only two games this week, we thought it would be interesting to try to nail four different try scorer markets! Combining our predictive models and odds comparison tools on ‘Edge’ as well as our player portal we have explained our reasoning in our article below. Best of luck everyone!
Panthers v Eels
7.50pm, Saturday 18/9
First Try Scorer
Brent Naden @ $8.50 on Sportsbet. Naden has been named to replace Brian To’o on the Panthers left edge. To’o is arguably the best winger in the comp at the moment and Naden will have big shoes to fill. But we’re confident the Panthers can show their class against an Eels team who could have easily been beaten by the Knights last week.
Anytime Try Scorer
Matt Burton @ $2.20 on TAB. He’s been in great try scoring form in 2021, scoring at least one try in 12 of his 23 games this season. On the same edge as Viliame Kikau who has been in great form, if you think the Panthers can regain their form then Burton is a great value play to score a try.
First Try Scorer 2nd Half
Viliame Kikau @ $17 on Pointsbet. He’s been the first try scorer in 11 of his 99 games. If he starts this game, then he’s a great value bet at first try scorer at the same odds, however if he starts off the bench then we like him to score the first try in the second half. Penrith are 12 point favourites and they’ll went to get their mojo back on their lethal left edge where Kikau has been in dominant form in recent weeks.
Last Try Scorer
Nathan Cleary @ $19 on Pointsbet. He’s scored the last try in 12/121 NRL games throughout his career and 4/17 games in 2021. The 2021 numbers would mean his odds should be around $4.30. This sounds ridiculous but given the Panthers are around 12 point favourites, the $19 on offer seems like a great value play.
Sea Eagles v Roosters
7.50pm, Friday 17/9
First Try Scorer
Drew Hutchison $51 on TAB & Pointsbet. Manly go into this game 12 point favourites but we’re expecting this to be a tight, typical finals game early on. Drew Hutchison has been impressive for the Roosters this year and is a strong ball runner on their left edge. Our model has him priced at $53 so it’s more of an instinct play from us. The three best value first try scorer players according to our model are Harper ($19), Parker ($18) & Garrick ($8).
Anytime Try Scorer
Tom Trbojevic @ $1.75 on Neds/Ladbrokes. If you agree with most fans and the pre-game favouritism given to Manly, Tom Trbojevic is a great value bet to score a try at some point in the match. If we went off his try scoring strike rate in 2021, he’d be closer to $1.25! Schuster ($4.7), Cherry-Evans ($4) & his brother Jake ($7) are the three best value plays according to our model.
First Try Scorer 2nd Half
Taniela Paseka @ $81 on TAB. He’s an agile, powerful forward that should be better for the run after returning from injury in Round 25. Manly’s starting props are priced around $60-70 according to our model and most betting sites, so the $81 on offer for what should be a fresh Taniela Paseka is a great price!
Last Try Scorer
Morgan Harper @ $19 on Sportsbet & Pointsbet. Given it’s an elimination final, you would expect Manly to be at 100% until the final whistle. Morgan Harper is showing as one of our best value plays for first & anytime try scorer so we’re backing him to go over late in the game.