The prayers of league fans have been answered. Both teams have won one game each and we have a decider at Suncorp! Queensland are missing their main man Munster but NSW have to get the job done in Queensland if they are to take home the Origin shield. If you’ve played NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach, you’ll be across the concept of Fantasy Sports. Draftstars, Australia’s largest daily fantasy sports (DFS) company, have a $50,000 prize pool in their contest for Game 2 of this year’s State of Origin series. The entry fee for the main contest is $15 per team and 1st prize will be at least $4,935 (this increases if there are more entries than expected). The data used for NRL Draftstars & their scoring system is similar to NRL Fantasy. The general concept of looking for value picks so you can choose the highest possible scoring team is also the same. We covered DFS strategy in our Game 1 preview and we’ll cover value players & fade options (who you should leave out) in our NRL Draftstars State of Origin Preview article. You can also use our projected scores and advanced stats in our free NRL Draftstars Stats Bible.
Corey Oates ($9,000) returns to the Queensland Origin side on the back of an excellent 2022 season for the Broncos. He’s been set at the minimum price but we think he’s a great pick up to start building your DFS team around. The Maroons’ back three have struggled for yardage, especially in comparison to the Blues so far this series. Oates will help the Maroons in this department.
We also think that with Munster out, Ponga will get his hands on the ball more. And we all know how much he loves hitting his left winger. Our model has him projected to score 36 points and we think he could comfortably score more than that if he scores a try in a shock Maroons win.
Brian To’o ($12,540) has run for 480 metres & broken 17 tackles in the first two games this series. His work-rate should get him close to the 48 points we have him projected for in base stats alone. If you think he can jag a try or two, he becomes a standout pick. It’s these reasons we think he’s priced way higher than he should be at $101 to win the Player of the Match.
Harry Grant ($14,050) has scored 70 DFS points in 92 minutes across the first two Origin games in 2022. If you agree with our thinking that Ben Hunt is likely to spend some time in the halves, then Grant becomes a much better value proposition. We think Grant is likely to get closer to 60 minutes at hooker. He may not hit the 55 points our model has him projected for, but we think he’s the second best pick in the HH position after Nathan Cleary.
Jake Trbojevic ($16,880) was epic in game 2. We suggested him as a fade option, thinking he’d play around 30-40 minutes and we were clearly wrong. He played for 70 minutes. However, even though he played twice the amount of minutes we thought he would, he only scored 45.8 DFS points. That was was from 31 tackles and 148 run metres. With no missed tackles or errors. Now that he’s priced at $16,880 we think there’s no upside in picking someone who will likely only score 45 at most in this game.
James Tedesco ($19,000) has been great so far this series. 550 run metres in 2 games is incredible. However, he’s still only averaged 56 DFS points across the 2 games. If you think the Blues’ attack will continue to go through the Panthers’ trio of Cleary, Luai & Yeo in good ball sets, then fading Tedesco could be a wise decision at his hefty price-tag.
As Game 3 draws closer, check out our preview of the game & punting guide. We cover the team changes since Game 1, where we think the game will be won & lost and tips for first try scorer & player of the match markets!
Using some of the advice from our value plays & fade options above, here’s an example of two possible teams you could enter on Draftstars for Game 3. Generally it’s a good idea to have backs from the same team or players from the same edge, so if they do well, their DFS scoring is likely to be correlated.In the first team, we have Blues right edge players To’o, Cleary & Martin paired with To’o. In the second team, we have Oates & Holmes who will be on the Maroons’ left edge. With DCE & Grant who will be key members of the Maroons’ spine.
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