After an enthralling nail-biter in Game 1, we’re all set to see if the Maroons can lock up the series in Perth! The Maroons were heroic, batting adversity to win the first game in NSW heartland. With the neutral venue, most fans are expecting this game to go to the wire. If you’ve played NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach, you’ll be across the concept of Fantasy Sports. Draftstars, Australia’s largest daily fantasy sports (DFS) company, have a $40,000 prize pool in their contest for Game 2 of this year’s State of Origin series.

The entry fee for the main contest is $15 per team and 1st prize will be at least $3,915 (this increases if there are more entries than expected). The data used for NRL Draftstars & their scoring system is similar to NRL Fantasy. The general concept of looking for value picks so you can choose the highest possible scoring team is also the same. We covered DFS strategy in our Game 1 preview and we’ll cover value players & fade options (who you should leave out) in our NRL Draftstars State of Origin Preview article. You can also use our projected scores and advanced stats in our free NRL Draftstars Stats Bible.

Value Players

Brian To’o ($12,540) racked up over 200 metres & 8 tackle breaks in Game 1. There are rumours that Liam Martin will be shifting to the left, so it would be almost exactly the same edge that won the Grand Final with the Panthers in 2021! His base stats already make him a good pick at $12,540 but if you think NSW can do better in attack a To’o try would make him a standout pick. It’s one of the reasons we think he’s a great shout at $101 to win player of the match!

Liam Martin ($11.070) played 80 minutes game 1 for 50 tackles and 30 run metres. Although it’s not the type of game that would get most fans excited, the reality is that Cam Murray will get time in the middle (with Angus Crichton likely to take his spot on the edge). This likely means that the Blues will rely on Liam Martin to get through close to 80 minutes of game time again. Which makes him a great value play at $11,070.

Patrick Carrigan ($12,480) was immense in Game 1. He’s been super impressive coming off an ACL injury for the Broncos, but to have that sort of impact off the bench for a QLD team reeling with a couple of injuries, that was some elite work by Carrigan. 58 points at 5% ownership in Game 1. You can guarantee he’ll be a lot more popular this time around but still an excellent value pick at that price!

Fade Options

Jake Trbojevic ($14,400) is a very different player to what he was when he started his Rep career a few years ago. There has been a lot of debate about why he was left out in Game 1 and now why he’s been selected in this team for RCG who many fans thought was one of the Blues’ best in Game 1.

To put it simply, we just don’t think he’ll get any more than 40 minutes in this game. Haas & Paulo are the two recognise props who play in that position week-to-week. We think Yeo will play big minutes in the middle, Murray will likely get 30-40 minutes in the middle & Talakai will likely be asked to go crazy for 20-25 minutes in his Origin debut. It’s hard to think of a scenario where Trbojevic gets more than 40 minutes on the field and therefore we see him barely being able to make the 38 points our model has predicted him for.

James Tedesco ($19,430) was in everything in Game 1. 290 run metres, 8 tackle breaks & 58 DFS points in a heroic Captain’s knock. However, with Koroisau taking over the starting Hooker role, we can see a shift in the Blues’ attack even further towards the Panthers’ players. Tedesco will still get the elite base stats we associate with him due to his work-rate. However, we think he’ll struggle to be the last man to pass the ball for assists or score himself. If he had a great game in Game 1 and scored 58 points, we think it’s going to be hard for him to outdo that. And at his price-tag, that’s enough for us to suggest you should leave him out.

As Game 2 draws closer, check out our preview of the game & punting guide. We cover the team changes since Game 1, where we think the game will be won & lost and tips for first try scorer & player of the match markets!

Example Team

Using some of the advice from our value plays & fade options above, here’s an example of a team you could enter on Draftstars for Game 2. We have base stats/value through To’o, Martin & Carrigan. Murray & Haas we think will be crucial to the Blues’ pack and can exceed their projected score. Burton will be playing at centre but has been in great form with the boot with the Bulldogs & was the Dally M Centre of the season last year on the Panthers’ left edge so we think he’s got some great upside. And Grant at $12,200 also seems like a great pick given his ability in attack. If he comes on around the 30th minute and plays out the game, we think he’ll have plenty of opportunities to break the line or setup tries through a tired NSW middle.

If you enjoyed our NRL Draftstars State of Origin Preview, follow us on social media & join us on Discord channel where we discuss sports betting, fantasy & analytics across NRL, NBA & Cricket!