NBA DFS Weekly Trends Overview

NBA DFS Weekly Trends Overview

Utilizing your salary cap wisely is the key to success in Draftstars so observing trends such as team and player form surges, player ownership and winning formulas will hold you in good stead to selecting a potentially-winning line-up.

The good news is we’re here to help look back over the past week, to glean some insights based on some of the available data. Plus we take a look at a few of the $30,000 Draftstars slate winners’ line-ups and how they succeeded.

Player Ownership

Coaches faded the big-name premiums on Tuesday with Philadelphia 76ers guard Shake Milton (SG|PG $8,270) leaping out as the most popular player with 64% ownership, elevated to the side’s starting line-up with Tyrese Maxey out.  Milton did get more minutes, going from 22 to 35 (the game also did go to over-time), with his DS score 27.5, up slightly on his 22.1 season average.

Charlotte Hornets small forward Cody Martin (SF|SG $8,960) also had 63% ownership, with coaches shrewdly spotting a list of players entering the NBA’s COVID-19 protocol from his side. Martin’s output was marginally up as well, from a season average of 21.1 DS points to 26.5 for the game.

Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine (SG $15,370) was the most popular of the premiums at 46% ownership, bringing in 49.75 points, while only 13% owned volatile and expensive 76ers center Joel Embiid (C $20,208) who top scored with 74.75 DS points.

On Monday, New Orleans Pelicans small forward Brandon Ingram (SF|PF $14,790) was an overwhelming favourite, with 75% jumping on and he delivered for a slate-high 57.75 DS points. Ingram came into Monday’s slate after a double-double and three straight games shooting 24+ points.

On Sunday, in-form San Antonio Spurs point guard Dejounte Murray (PG $18,490) top scored with 53.5 DS points yet only 4% jumped on. Similarly, only 9% had the aforementioned LaVine with the next best score of 53, prompting his Tuesday spike.

Sunday’s most-owned player was Dallas Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson (PG|SG $11,780) who came into their starting line-up with Luka Doncic out, delivering 31.25 DS points, up only a few on his season average.

On Saturday, 76ers forward Georges Niang (PF|SF $7,430) was the most owned at 43% in Tobias Harris’ absence for Philly, with a nice return of 27.5 DS points, up on his 19.7 season average. Brooklyn Nets forward Kevin Durant (SF|PF $18,560) attracted the third highest ownership (31%) but scored only the eighth highest for the slate with 50.5 DS points.

The aforementioned Ingram was the slate’s second top scorer with 57 DS points, owned by 25%. Darius Garland (PG|SG $14,630) top scored with 59.5 DS points yet was missed by most, with only 4% ownership at a fair price.

Brandon Ingram (SF|PF $14,790) has put together a great run, averaging 50.4 DS points across the past three games, offering great value for the price.

Team Form

The Chicago Bulls have had four impressive wins in a row, knocking off the Nets, Hornets, New York Knicks, Denver Nuggets. At the heart of that has been LaVine, whose three-game average is 50 DS points, up from his season average of 40.5.

Another player in form and on the verge of the uber premium category is Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell (SG|PG $15,310) who have been a key part of their four-game win streak. Mitchell (40.9 DS season average) is averaging 47.8 DS points across their past three games, shooting 30-or-more points in his past three games, including 13 three-pointers.

Eric Gordon (SG|SF $10,200) and Christian Wood (C $16,580) have been the driving force behind the Houston Rockets’ remarkable form 360, winning six straight after losing 15 consecutive games. Gordon, in particular, is a mid-price option delivering three-game form (27.4 DS points) above his average (22.9 DS points).

Player Form

Four-time MVP LeBron James (SF|PF $17,720) has had no continuity all season. In fact he hasn’t been able to string together four straight games with injuries, suspension and protocols intervening but he may have put that behind him. He’s also got a score of 18.3 DS points in his five-game average from his ejection against the Detroit Pistons, meaning he’s under-priced, despite four straight 50+ DS scores.

We’ve already discussed Ingram (SF|PF $14,790), who has put together a great run, averaging 50.4 DS points across the past three games, offering great value for the price.

On the flipside, the on-court points have dried up lately for Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (SG $14,800) who had four consecutive games shooting less than 20 points until last game’s 34-point haul against the Indiana Pacers. Beal’s three-game average is 29.8 DS points, way down on his season average of 38.5 DS points. There’s an argument that he’s missing Russell Westbrook’s playmaking and will not return to last season’s lofty heights without him.

Door Open

When Ja Morant went down with a sprained ankle late last month, many worried about the Grizzlies, but they have excelled in his absence, going on a five-game winning streak including a record-breaking 73-point victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Desmond Bane (SF $12,340) is a big beneficiary as playmaker, pushing his case for the NBA’s Most Improved Player.

Bane’s recent form has spiked, with three-game and six-game averages of 35.1 and 32.0 DS points, up from his season average of 27.8. All this despite only playing 18 minutes in the OKC rout. With Morant still out for a “couple of weeks”, Bane can be expected to continue this trend.

Desmond Bane’s recent form has spiked in Ja Morant’s absence, with three-game and six-game averages of 35.1 and 32.0 DS points, up from his season average of 27.8.

Winning Teams

Tuesday’s $30,000 winner Barnold only had one of the top eight most owned players, being basement-priced Portland Trail Blazers guard Dennis Smith (PG $6,000) who delivered 32 DS points.

Barnold spent wisely by fading top-priced trio Nikola Jokic (C $21,700), Trae Young (PG $20,110) and Joel Embiid (C $20,280) – the latter who top scored for the slate – instead turning to cheaper center Karl-Anthony Towns (C $17,530) along with Lonzo Ball (PG $13,850) who contributed quality scores of 65.5 and 49.00 DS points respectively.

Monday’s $30,000 winner Knova had three of the four top scorers for the slate in Ingram, Young and Miles Bridges (SF|PF $16,650) with 57.75, 55.00 and 53.00 DS points respectively. Ingram was owned by three-quarters of coaches, but Young and Bridges only had 18% ownership.

Knova also owned the top four sub-$10k point-scorers in Cody Martin (SF|SG $8,530), Willy Hernangomez (C $9,910), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG|SF $8,950) and Danilo Gallinari (PF $8,750) with 37.50, 34.50, 34.50 and 27.00 DS points respectively.

Sunday’s $30,000 winner Lachie_w rode the form surge of Bane along with Milwaukee Bucks big man Bobby Portis (PF|C $13,480) who scored 47.75 and 53.00 DS points, while being one of the 26% who faded top pick Jalen Brunson. Lachie_w joined plenty in owning Dennis Schroder (PG|SG $11,450) and Khris Middleton (SF $14,030) which paid off handsomely with returns of 52.00 and 42.50 DS points.

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