NBA DFS Weekly Trends Overview

NBA DFS Weekly Trends Overview

Premium selection can often define your success in Draftstars and this week has been a case in point, along with the usual point of difference (POD) picks.

We’ve looked back over weekend’s data and some of this week’s trends to glean some insights based on the available data. Plus we take a look at a few of the $30,000 Draftstars slate winners’ line-ups and how they succeeded.

Player Ownership

On Wednesday, the top four owned players were Brooklyn Nets with James Harden (PG $19,360) entering into COVID-19 protocols opening up more point-scoring opportunities for Cam Thomas (SG|PG $6,790) and Kevin Durant (SF|PF $20,460) who were both at 73% ownership. Durant’s season-best 51-point haul earlier in the week, when Harden was rested against the Detroit Pistons has also fueled the spike.

Durant delivered with a whopping 70.75 DS points, while Blake Griffin (PF|C $6,130) was above average with 32.75. Stephen Curry (PG $18,610) lured 42% ownership amid the excitement of his three-pointers record but only scored 34.75 DS points.

On Tuesday, bumper price Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (C $24,250) top scored again but his skyrocketing price meant only 10% jumped on for his 73.25 DS points, which was 11 ahead of the next best Jayson Tatum (SF|PF $19,020) who had 6% ownership.

Toronto’s Chris Boucher (PF|C $6,940) was the overwhelmingly most-owned player with 88% ownership, providing 26.25 DS points. Kristaps Porzingis (PF $15,680) may have been the value mid-price/premium pick, with 27% owning him for his 53.25 DS points.

On Monday, Durant (SF|PF $20,790) was also the second most owned player, delivering a slate-high 79.25 DS points, which was 13 points clear of the next best. Portland’s Anfernee Simons (SG|PG $8,740) continued to attract good ownership (the slate’s highest at 54%) amid his rise with key Blazers out, scoring 34.25 DS points, up on his 20.7 season average.

On Sunday, Jokic (C $22,430) scored a slate-high 75.25 DS points, the next best was 24 DS points behind. Jokic was owned by 25% who felt it was worth spending big on him. The next best score was 51.25 coming from Zach LaVine (SG $16,280) who was the fourth most owned player with 39% on board, which also seemed a good investment. Memphis Grizzlies forward Kyle Anderson (SF|PF $7,860) was owned by 70% and netted them an excellent 37.25, way up on his 21.6 DS season average.

On Saturday, LeBron James (SF|PF $18,290) was the fifth most owned player (28%) and scored the second most points (59.25) which was a great return for a premium. The cheaper Kelly Oubre (SF|SG $15,690) was the third most owned player and posted the 12th most points (46.0).

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF|C $21,050) was way out on top for most DS points in the slate, with 79.25, but he comes at a high price and was only owned by 3%. He’s also been hard to trust this season with inconsistency.

On Friday, Donovan Mitchell’s (SG|PG $15,340) consistent form meant he had 46% ownership and posted 37.75 DS points. Memphis Grizzlies point guard De’Anthony Melton (PG|SG $9,140) is another thriving lately in Ja Morant’s absence and he had 63% ownership but only managed 30.50 DS points. Teammate Jaren Jackson (C|PF $13,150) had 54% and returned 36.75 DS points.

Jokic (C $21,640) was the slate’s top scorer again, attracting 25% ownership and scoring 62.25 DS points, closely followed by James (SF|PF $18,050) with 62.0 DS points with 28% ownership.

Winning Teams

Wednesday’s $30,000 winner dtownsend had the key top scorers in Durant along with Chris Paul (PG $16,000) and Damian Lillard (PG $16,060) with 61.5 and 52.5 DS points respectively. Dtownsend also found a point of difference with another Nets player Kessler Edwards (SF $6,000), owned by only 12%, putting up 38.5 DS points.

Tuesday’s $30,000 slate winner ILoveLamp jumped on popular pick Boucher while they grabbed value option Porzingis. Hawks center Clint Capela (C $14,180) proved a shrewd point of difference at 13% with 40.5 DS points.

Monday’s $25,000 slate winner Luckbox had top scorer Durant instead of LeBron James (SF|PF $20,900) who was 13 DS points behind him at a similar price. Luckbox also picked up the third and fourth best scorers Derrick White (PG|SG $12,680) and Cade Cunningham (PG|SG $14,410) respectively at a good price.

Sunday’s $30,000 slate winner Zuzic owned five of the top seven most popular players but faded the two who let sides down in Tyler Herro (SG|PG $13,090) and Dillon Brooks (SG $10,850) with DS scores of 29 and 28.5. Instead Zuzic took highly-owned players Jokic, LaVine and Anderson as well as Deni Avdija (SF|PF $6,400) and Armoni Brooks (PG|SG $9,610). Darius Garland (PG|SG $15,370) was Zuzic’s major point of difference, landing 50.5 DS points with an 8% ownership.

Sunday’s winner took the fiercely expensive Jokic, while Friday’s winner faded him. He top scored both slates but only marginally on Friday, showing often premium choice is critical.

Saturday’s $30,000 winner jbarrett16 had a few popular options including James, Boucher and James Bouknight (SG $6,000) but opted to fade the third-most owned pick Oubre (SF|SG $15,690) which didn’t work out. However, the advantage was gained with JaVale McGee (C $8,050) who had 3% and landed 48.75 DS points. JBarrett16 also had Khris Middleton (SF $13,740), Caris LeVert (SG|SF $11,250) and DeAndre Fox (PG $14,930) with relative unique ownership at 9%, 11% and 16% with DS scores of 41.5, 48.5 and 48.5 respectively.

Friday’s $30,000 winner gatsid owned the top three owned players in Melton, Jackson and Mitchell while he opted to fade Jokic, who only marginally outscored James who was more than $3k cheaper in a key move. Another in-form Grizzlies gun Desmond Bane (SF $12,990) was also a key addition with 39.25 DS points, but the decider was 2% owned Jazz big man Hassan Whiteside (C $6,650) who added 33.0 DS points.

Interestingly, Sunday’s winner took the fiercely expensive Jokic, while Friday’s winner faded him. He top scored both slates but only marginally on Friday, showing often premium choice is critical.

Team Form

The Utah Jazz are on a seven-game winning streak where Mitchell (SG|PG $16,940) has been the epitome of consistent, with a DS low-high of 37.8 and 49. If you want a reliable option where you know what you’re going to get for what you pay, he’s your man.

The Portland Trail Blazers have had an awful 1-9 run lately, with star man Damian Lillard (PG $16,060) missing a handful of games with lower abdominal tendinopathy, along with CJ McCollum (SG|PG $14,090). Lillard had posted DS scores of 26 and 27.5, with only one lower score all season, prior to taking a break. He has returned under-priced but refreshed and also taking on more in McCollow’s absence with DS scores of 52.5 and 47.25 up on his 41.6 season average.

There’s also been a big jump in ownership on Grizzlies players, with the side turning it on without Morant, who was out with a knee injury and has since been placed in COVID-19 protocols.

There’s also been a big jump in ownership on Grizzlies players, with the side turning it on without Morant, who was out with a knee injury and has since been placed in COVID-19 protocols.

Door Open

After a good run of form with several team-mates out, Raptors forward Boucher (PF|C $8,490) was owned by 51% on Saturday, returning 26.00 DS points, well above his DS season average of 15.9. Boucher has been getting increased game-time lately, with 20 or more minutes in the past four games. He had previously only reached that mark twice in 22 games this season.

Boucher has mainly benefitted from Precious Achiuwa‘s absence, initially with shoulder tendonitis before entering COVID-19 protocols. Monitor his return.

Stay tuned for turbulence too, with more and more players being forced into COVID-19 protocols with James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo the latest. Harden’s absence led to a major surge in ownership of Nets’ players on Wednesday, as the points were shared around more. Look out for Nicolas Claxton (C $6,000) who scored 27.75 DS points on Wednesday with 60% ownership.

If their games continue to get played and not postponed, given minimum player requirements, that may open up opportunities. Worth noting, the Chicago Bulls had an outbreak this week too, forcing games to be postponed.

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