NBA DFS Preview Saturday 27 November

NBA DFS Preview Saturday 27 November

Saturday’s NBA slate presents 12 games after Thanksgiving with some of the top premiums in action but experiencing form dips, making this a difficult set of games from a Draftstars perspective.

LAST GAME LEARNINGS

The slate’s third most expensive player, Stephen Curry (PG $19,900) was held to an extent by Matisse Thybulle with 25 points and 10 assists in Thursday’s game against the 76ers, returning a DS score of 49.5 points after managing only 27 earlier in the week. There’s reasonable concern about his recent dip, coinciding with a hip issue.

Four-time MVP LeBron James (SF(PF) $17,220) returned from suspension with a season-high DS score of 61.8, putting up 39 points in the Los Angeles Lakers’ over-time win over the Indiana Pacers. It’s worth noting Anthony Davis (PF(C) $18,320) missed this game due to illness.

Russell Westbrook (PG $17,910) has an excellent three-game average of 53.8 DS points but his scores are hugely volatile, going from 67.8 to 36.8, as he seems heavily impacted by James’ presence.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF(C) $22,100) has had a few down games, with back-to-back DS scores of 57.3 and 41 after a run of three games averaging 68.88. The only factor would be he played only 24 minutes for his DS score of 41 against the Orlando Magic so don’t be too alarmed.

Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (PG $18,220) produced his own season-high DS score of 56.5, with his 32 points, six rebounds and 10 assists against the Sacramento Kings, who seem to be offering up big points. Team-mate Jusuf Nurkic (C $13,020) also had a season-high 59.3 DS score.

LaMelo Ball (PG $18,860) had enjoyed a hot run but dropped his lowest DS score in 13 games with 34, which was hard to specifically attribute having managed 22 points, four rebounds and four assists in an all-round down showing for the 20-year-old.

So do you change your structure or put faith in MVP favourite Curry to re-discover his best?

INJURY NEWS

Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic (C $23,260) remains questionable with the wrist problem that has kept him out of the Denver Nuggets’ past three games. At that price, it’s worth leaving him alone despite his DS season average of 58.0.

James is again questionable for the Lakers as he manages the abdominal issue which kept him out for two and a half weeks recently. The Lakers play late in the slate, which makes it unlikely that we’ll know if he’s playing or not before decisions need to be made, but that will impact Westbrook and the Lakers line-up and potential value options like Malik Monk (SG $7,270).

The Atlanta Hawks have a few notable concerns with Trae Young (PG $18,540) listed as day-to-day with a left ankle sprain while guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG $9,250) is questionable with a hamstring worry.

Other concerns, which may have trickle-on effects, include Boston’s Jaylen Brown (SF(SG) $14,200), Charlotte’s Mason Plumlee (C $9,400) and New York’s Derrick Rose (PG(SG) $9,470).

VALUE OPTIONS

Rudy Gobert (C $16,770) is arguably still in the premium category but his DS season average of 42.3 has seen his price plummet, but after successive 50+ scores he’s looming as good value.

Bucks center Bobby Portis (PF(C) $14,410) has had a great run of games lately, with three 40+ DS scores from his past four games, up on his season average of 32.3.

Charlotte’s Terry Rozier (PG(SG) $13,300) has posted successive season-high DS scores, while Jordan Poole (SG(PG) $11,730) and Andrew Wiggins (SF(SG) $12,650) have stepped up during Curry’s dip. Milwaukee’s Jarred Vanderbilt (PF(C) $10,510) has launched into a strong run of form and remains under-priced.

For the basement prices, Hornets forward Jalen McDaniels (PF $6,000) benefitted from Plumlee’s injury against the Magic, getting more minutes and posting 18.8 DS points.

Denver’s Facundo Campazzo (PG $6,460), Golden State’s Juan Toscano-Anderson (PF $6,130) and San Antonio’s Bryn Forbes (SG $6,000) have found some recent form and warrant consideration.

PREMIUM PLAYS

Jokic’s injury along with minor dips from Antetokounmpo, Curry and Ball make this category awkward this slate. Throw in Young’s ankle issue and Davis’ recent fever and the options aren’t exactly jumping out. Perhaps it’s time for a different structure to your line-up, with Gobert representing value for the aforementioned reasons.

It’s unlikely Lillard will repeat his season-high heroics against the ladder leading Warriors, while Jayson Tatum (SF(PF) $18,810) is another premium experiencing a drop-off in recent games.

So do you change your structure or put faith in MVP favourite Curry to re-discover his best?

Minnesota’s 2020 number one draft pick Anthony Edwards (SG(SF) $15,530) had a season-high DS score of 69.5 earlier this week and aids the former strategy.

FADES

The uncertainty around the Lakers, with James’ abdominal concern, Davis’ illness and Westbrook’s volatile form, dependent on who is around him, means you’re wisest to avoid that trio.

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