At the time of writing this article, we are seven rounds in to the 2021 NRL season. We have had great success using our Draftstars projections for Rugby League DFS & struck some big odds value plays in the Try Scorer markets. Before we explain how to get the best out of Edge, we want to clarify we are not a tipping service and all our data tools and content are free for all to use. If you find it interesting, please share it around or if you have any suggestions reach out to us directly on social media or firstname.lastname@example.org.
Try Scorer Odds Value Finder
Historical numbers relate to that players’ career strike rate. Eg. If Alex Johnston’s career strike rate was represented as betting odds, it would be 12.58. This doesn’t take into consideration factors such as the pre-game line, match total line, his recent form etc. which our Model does. FTS Model is what our statistical model thinks his odds should be, in this case 6.92.
Of the 5 sites we had odds for this round, the best odds for Johnston were 8.50. So you can see, he’s a good value bet according to our model (indicated by the green highlighting and 123% in highest/model%). However, purely compared to his career strike rate of being the first try scorer (FTS) in a match, it’s not that good. This is where you come in.
We give you all the information – the players’ career strike rate (Historical) and our statistical model (Model) and the best odds available across various sites so you can pick and choose which plays you believe are the best for the upcoming round of NRL. As always, please gamble responsibly.
Draftstars – Daily Fantasy Sports
We have also built a statistical model for Draftstars (NRL Daily Fantasy Sport) projections. Again, we are providing all the information for you to make a decision on how you will construct your team. The ‘Predicted Score’ is the result of our statistical model’s output considering the player’s recent form, match total line, team handicap, position correlation and much more.
Using that information and the player’s price we provide the ‘Price/Pred%’ which is basically letting you know who the better value players in the game would be. The better value players are lower numbers in this column and highlighted in red. Please beware that we aren’t always able to update this information to cater for late changes so only use them as a guide.
Try Scorer Portal
Our try scorer portal currently looks at data from 2016-2020. It’s a great guide to look at players’ try scoring trends with the ability to filter for different seasons, home and away matches, against certain teams or look at games when the players’ team was the pre-game favourite or outsider.
You Can also filter by ‘odds’ or ‘percentage’ depending on your reason for using the page. In the above example, you can see Josh Addo-Carr’s odds should be around 1.90 if you purely look at his historical strike rate in home games when the Storm were favourites. Next week we will be updating it with 2021 data and fixing the issue with “First Try Scorer 2nd Half’.